Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Riverton Wyoming
154 PM MST Friday Mar 6 2015

Short term...tonight through Saturday

Apart from areas of gusty wind this afternoon...a pleasant afternoon
across the cowboy state. Temperatures will continue to
moderate...except perhaps in the Star Valley and Jackson
Hole...where temperatures will struggle to rise above freezing.
Inversions will form again tonight...and coupled with the lower
levels moistening due to the melting snow...patchy fog will be
possible tonight. High level clouds will continue to stream across
the region...so once again have left fog out of the forecast...but
it will be something to watch.

Gusty winds along the Cody foothills...Upper Green river basin...and
the wind corridor from Rock Springs to Casper...will gradually
decrease tonight. These gusty winds are not expected to return
during the day Saturday...except over southwest Natrona County to
Casper. Otherwise...temperatures will continue to moderate tonight
and Saturday...returning to more seasonal normals.

Long term...Saturday night through Friday night

Beginning of forecast...weak upper SW quickly moving through northwest flow
approaching northern/northestern Wyoming will bring only modest mainly middle level
moisture with it along with dragging a weak clipper through the NE
forecast area overnight. Best...but still low...chances for measurable precipitation
will occur in the big horns and probably after midnight...ending
by Sun morning.

Otherwise...no real drama in the extended...at least through middle
week...with high...dry...and warming conditions forecast as ridging
holds in place until the approach of the next SW trough fromt he epac
begins to influence the region on Thursday...increasing pop chances mainly
in the west...while a modest cyclone/front generates north of the forecast area and
into the northern plains...eventually bringing a cold front of sorts through
the region. Whereas there was quite a bit of divergence between models
by Thursday earlier...the Euro has since come around to the GFS through
at least Friday before major differences in west CST ridge position and
amplitude become significant. So for the final day of the forecast
period...while the trough continues east...deepening into central and Southern
Plains...a stationary front is likely to be left behind...offering
perhaps a little help in producing some light precipitation east of The
Divide. Overall however...good moisture looks to be lacking...on top
of which the storm will likley quickly exit the area to the
south...as ridging takes over from the west...with little impact in the
great scheme of things. There will be a cool off with this weather
system...but it will be a rather mild Spring-Time cool down...not
the middle winter Arctic plunge of the last week.

&&

Aviation.../00z issuance/

VFR conditions to prevail through 00z Sunday. Areas of low level wind shear will
return tonight over the Wind River basin near kriw. Otherwise...gusty
winds will decrease after 01z this evening from kbpi/kpna to krks
to kcpr. Winds are not expected to be as gusty Saturday...except
near kcpr.

&&

Fire weather...

Although temperatures will continue to moderate through the
weekend...winds will be light for many locations...except near
Casper. Thus mixing heights and smoke dispersion will be low and
poor for many locations...especially east of The Divide.

&&

Riw watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...lavoie
long term...Braun
aviation...lavoie
fire weather...lavoie

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations