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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
355 PM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE IN
THE SIERRA. WARMER CONDITIONS AND DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURN
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

AS EXPECTED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 MAINLY IN MONO, MINERAL, AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES.
CLOUD CONTAMINATION AND WEAKER FORCING HAVE KEPT CELL INTENSITY
FAIRLY WEAK WITH VERY FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPARENT. STILL,
SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MODERATE
OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF MODERATELY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. 

OTHERWISE, LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLDER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS DOWN THE
CASCADES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA AND RANGES OF
THE NEVADA INTERIOR. ADDITIONALLY, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON SINCE SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE WITH HEATING. 

THESE CELLS WILL HAVE WEAKER WIND POTENTIAL THAN THOSE OF THE
LAST FEW DAYS, BUT WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING BLOCK BUSTER AMOUNTS, GENERALLY AROUND 0.1", BUT UP
TO 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WESTERN
NEVADA VALLEYS LOCATIONS. SIERRA AND OTHER TERRAIN MAY SEE UP TO
0.5 INCHES. THE SIERRA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SNOW LEVELS DIP TO 5500-6000FT; AREA
PASSES WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK. AMOUNTS AT MORE POPULATED
ELEVATIONS, 7000 FT AND BELOW, SHOULD ONLY RECEIVE TOKEN AMOUNTS
WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION DUE TO WARMER GROUND SURFACES. BOYD

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE IN THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY FRIDAY. CONTINUED WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SLIGHT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BAND
OF ORGANIZED SHOWERS ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES NORTHWEST OF THE
LOW, BUT THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO RISE AS THE COLD POOL MODIFIES
AND MOVES AWAY.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NORTH
FLOW BEHIND IT SATURDAY WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT. 

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
COAST MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE LATEST EC/GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH KEEPING
MOST OF THE PRECIP IN OREGON/WASHINGTON. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THEREFORE, WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST, BUT NOTHING EXTREME
WITH TEMPS REMAINING CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID MAY. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THIS EVENING
ENDING BY 03Z WITH A SMALL THREAT TO KMMH. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY WINDS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. QUIET TONIGHT WITH MORE BREEZY WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND PEAK GUSTS TO 30 KTS FROM THE W/SW 18-05Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS WELL, BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED NORTH OF I-80. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
A STORM OR TWO SOUTH OF THIS LINE, CHANCES FOR THE SIERRA/WRN NV
TERMINALS ARE LESS THAN 20 PCT. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 KTS FROM ANY STORMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
ALL AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS AS WELL THAT
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE NORTH.
WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

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