Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
250 PM PDT sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...
High pressure remains over the area through Monday with mild and dry
conditions. A low pressure system approaching the West Coast will
bring strong winds to the area Tuesday, with gusty conditions
lingering into Wednesday. Conditions will be cooler for the second
half of the week as low pressure remains over the region.
&&
Short term...
High pressure building into the West Coast is bringing mostly clear
skies and north winds to the area. This dry and stable airmass will
remain over the area through Monday. Northeast pressure/temperature
gradient increases over the Tahoe basin tonight as the surface high
builds into the Great Basin. These gradients will strengthen winds
overnight tonight, with gusts up to 25 miles per hour for Tahoe. This will
likely create a light chop on Lake Tahoe, although conditions are
expected to remain below lake Wind Advisory.
Ridge of high pressure continues to build over California/Nevada on Monday, with
lighter winds and warming conditions. Highs will reach into the
upper 70s in western Nevada and upper 60s in the Sierra. Very dry
air aloft will move into the region, which will create poor humidity
recovery Monday night especially for the higher elevations.
Low pressure swings into northern California/Nevada on Tuesday, with a strong
110kt jet punching into the region. Ahead of the cold front, winds
will increase sharply on Tuesday as 700mb winds increase to 40-45
kts. Model soundings are showing a mountain wave/downslope wind
profile with stable layer above 700mb and decreasing winds above the
Ridgetop inversion. This will increase valley gusts up to 45 miles per hour
with ridge gusts up to 70 miles per hour in the Sierra. Models are continuing
to increase the wind potential on Tuesday, and if this trend
continues we may need to issue wind advisories for much of the
forecast area.
Strongest winds will be along the Sierra front from Lassen County
down through the Reno-Carson-Minden areas and into the north half of
Mono County. Blowing dust may also be a concern for areas east of
Highway 395, such as Surprise Valley, Honey Lake, Black Rock/Smoke
Creek, Humboldt Sink, and Carson Sink. The cold front will push
through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with gusty winds
likely continuing into the overnight period. Hoon
Long term...Wednesday through Sunday...
Middle Range models remain in good agreement with major features from
midweek into next weekend. Low pressure drops out of the Gulf of
Alaska into southern Oregon where it stagnates Wednesday through
early Saturday. Several troughs pinwheel around the low bringing
chances of precipitation to the very northern Sierra, northern
portions of California, and extreme northwestern Nevada. The best
chances of precipitation occur Thursday evening before the low
begins to oscillate northeastward. Have increased precipitation
chances into the upper 20s to low 30 percent range for northern
Lassen and east Modoc counties Thursday afternoon and evening.
Current model runs continue to be slightly cooler than previous
runs. Therefore, have lowered temperatures a degree or so to
correspond with this trend. Generally, temperatures remain in the
50s for the Sierra and 60s for western Nevada. Temperatures warm
back to seasonal averages Friday into the weekend as the low moves
to the northeast. Upper troughing remains over the western United
States, but significant forcing for showers moves northeast with the
low leaving dry conditions for northern California and western
Nevada. Boyd
&&
Aviation...
Northeast winds near 10-15 kts through this evening with VFR conds.
Winds to weaken tonight for terminals but will keep going a bit from
the NE over the Sierra ridges. Localized low level wind shear and turbulence is
possible near Lake Tahoe through 12z Monday, but otherwise do not
expect much impact from these winds. A stronger SW wind event is
possible late Tuesday. Hoon
&&
Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
California...none.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/Reno (all lower case)
