Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
847 am PDT Monday Mar 10 2014
cold front and rain/snow band continues to move southward this
morning with distinct back edge of band moving into the northern
Sierra. Main upper forcing has shifted east of the area and expect
band to rapidly fall apart through 19z with showers lingering
along the immediate Sierra crest as upslope and moisture
combination continue for a few more hours into the afternoon. The
other exception will be far north and basin where instability
under passing trough will persist and result in scattered showers.
So will be adjusting forecast as the weather unfolds. Can already
see sunshine to the northwest of office despite an ongoing
moderate shower. Also extended lake Wind Advisory for Pyramid Lake
where gusts were already around 30-35 miles per hour and winds have shifted.
All updates have been issued. Hohmann
Previous discussion... /issued 256 am PDT Monday Mar 10 2014/
periods of rain and Sierra snow continue into this afternoon.
Breezy winds with choppy conditions on area lakes expected.
Another round of breezy winds and choppy conditions possible
Tuesday with east winds developing behind the front. For the
remainder of next week, dry conditions are expected with
temperatures below average Tuesday rising to above average by
a shortwave trough just off the coast continues to spread a swath
of precipitation across northern California. Most of the
precipitation remains on the west side of the crest with a few
observation sites mainly north and west of Susanville receiving a
few tenths of an inch of rainfall over the past several hours. The
best chances for precipitation will remain north of the Tahoe
basin into western Lassen County where an additional few tenths of
liquid is possible through this morning. Best chances across Tahoe
and northern Nevada will be with the front late morning into early
afternoon. Snow levels will dip to around 6000-6500 feet with the
front but only expecting about 3 inches above 7000 feet with a mix
of rain and snow possible below 7000 feet with maybe an inch
of wet slush possible. Across northern Nevada could see a few
hundredths of inch of rainfall with a tenth possible closer to the
Oregon border. The shortwave shifts east this afternoon with
precipitation diminishing through early evening.
Winds have been slow to increase across Tahoe but breezy conditions
are starting to develop as the front nears. Can expect choppy
conditions this morning as the front moves through with gusts up to
35 miles per hour possible. Lake wind advisories for Tahoe and pyramid remain
in place today. Pyramid lake's wind will increase more towards late
morning into early afternoon as the front nears. Winds diminish this
evening but shift out of the northeast behind the front on Tuesday
and another round of gusty winds possible on Tahoe Tuesday afternoon
with rougher conditions shifting to the west side of the lake with
east winds in place. Overall, cooler conditions expected on Tuesday
and Wednesday with highs in the low to middle 50s across western Nevada
and the middle and upper 40s for Sierra valleys. Fuentes
Long term...Thursday through Sunday...
Upper level ridge builds over the West Coast for the second half of
the work week with shortwave energy dropping through the northern
rockies Thursday and Friday. This will help to weaken the ridge,
although by the weekend the jet retreats north into Canada and
allows the ridge to amplify over the mountain west. A 588dm high
looks to dominate California/Nevada by the weekend, with 700mb temperatures increasing
to around +4c. Expect valley temperatures to increase to well above
normal by next weekend with the desert valleys reaching into the low
70s and the Sierra valleys into the 60s. Hoon
Rain band will continue to move south through the northern Sierra
and into the Tahoe basin today. Snow levels will remain above 7000
feet until the cold front moves in and snow levels drop to near Lake
Tahoe level (after 15z). There is a 30% chance of up to an inch of
slushy wet snow at ktrk and ktvl mainly between 15-18z.
Other impacts to ktrk and ktvl will include MVFR/IFR cig/vsby...
mountain and terrain obscuration...mountain turbulence and moderate
icing before 18z today. Conditions will improve later this afternoon
as dry northwest flow develops.
Ridge winds will remain gusty 60-80kt with surface wind gusts generally
25-30kt. Gusty northwest winds will develop over western Nevada in the
wake of front as pressure/thermal gradients tighten. Hoon
Nevada...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Lake Tahoe
California...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Lake Tahoe
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/Reno (all lower case)