Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
247 PM PDT Friday may 29 2015

Synopsis...

High pressure will bring very warm temperatures through this
weekend. A cold front will bring gusty winds Sunday and Monday,
with temperatures dropping to near normal from Monday through much
of next week. Low pressure setting up in the Pacific northwest will
bring possible showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday,
mainly north of Interstate 80.



&&

Short term...

The ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen over the West
Coast as we go into the weekend. There remains a very slight chance
of a storm near the Mono-Mineral County convergence zone late today,
but it looks as though it will be mostly towering cumulus. Warming
temperatures aloft tomorrow will keep convection capped with good
mixing. Temperatures across the lower valleys will reach to low 90s
Saturday with low 80s in the Sierra.

A fast moving area of low pressure approaches northern California/Nevada on
Sunday increasing winds across the region. Late in the day on
Sunday, 700mb winds increase to around 40kt, as the jet moves in.
Models have been trending slower with the jet core and strongest
winds aloft, bringing them in after midnight Sunday night. During
the day on Sunday, wind gusts 30 to 35 miles per hour are likely, especially
along the Sierra front from Minden north to Susanville, then picking
up late in the day before the sun GOES Down. Lake wind advisories
will be possible, due to gusty winds and choppy lake conditions on
Tahoe and pyramid (late in the day). Anyone planning boating or
kayaking on Tahoe or pyramid on Sunday should be aware of potential
choppy conditions.

The trough axis swings through northern California/Nevada on Sunday night,
becoming negatively tilted. There is a slight chance of nocturnal
showers Sunday night into Monday morning, due to the strong forcing
although moisture is lacking. Post-frontal gradient will remain
tight on Monday with breezy west winds. Hoon

Long term...Tuesday through Friday...

Very few changes to the long term concerning forecasted weather
elements. Models remain in fairly good agreement through early
Wednesday before significant diverging occurs. Ridging begins to
shift eastward Tuesday allowing for cooler temperatures than this
weekend with highs becoming much more seasonable in the upper 70s by
middle week. Did lower temperatures a small bit as a nod to the European model (ecmwf)
which digs an upper low Wednesday through Friday while GFS maintains
a trough skirting the Oregon border. As such, forecaster confidence
is low for precipitation chances until models come to more of a
consensus. The only other ting to note will be the possibility of
some breezy conditions, especially north of Highway 50 as the
approaching trough tightens the pressure gradient Wednesday
afternoon. Boyd

&&

Aviation...

VFR conditions are expected through the weekend with fairly light
winds through Saturday. Each day could see gustier late afternoon
winds east of the Sierra...typical for the warmer months. Convection
is also a possibility each day...mainly over the far southern areas
south of a line from Bridgeport to Yerington to Austin. Any
convection Saturday should be isolated enough that even if thunder
does develop storms could be navigated around.

By Sunday afternoon surface winds will be stronger with gusts to
near 30 kts and ridge gusts approaching 50 kts or more. Clouds also
increase late Sunday but ceilings should remain VFR. 20/Boyd

&&



Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...none.
California...none.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/Reno (all lower case)

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations