Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
242 PM PST Monday Feb 8 2016
High pressure will bring above average temperatures along with
generally light winds for the rest of the week. Valley inversions
will continue this week although some weakening is expected later
in the week as temperatures warm. There is no chance for
precipitation through Friday, and then only a slim chance well
north of Interstate 80 on Saturday.
Strong high pressure will remain in control of northeast California
and western Nevada through Thursday (and beyond), for light winds
and slowly warming temperatures. Afternoon temperatures are
expected to top out 10-15 degrees above average everywhere by
Thursday, although they have already reached up to 10 degrees
above average in the Sierra today (with records likely in some
spots this week). Highs will lag some out in the basin and range
(lovelock/Fallon/Hawthorne/yerington) as colder nights and lower
elevations allow inversions to restrict warming more effectively.
As far as fog/low stratus, there was evidence of patchy fog near
the Lovelock Airport this morning (asos) and there was patchy fog
in the Martis Valley around the Truckee Airport. Elsewhere,
there was no obvious evidence of fog but will leave in for the
Sierra Valley tonight with near saturated conditions this morning
and as that is a favored spot for fog given the water source
(feather river basin). Snyder
Long term...Friday through Monday...
Few changes in the extended forecast with overall mild and dry
conditions prevailing into early next week. The only Prospect for
seeing some light precipitation looks to occur early Saturday
morning as a weak shortwave trough pushes through the Pacific
Models have slowed, weakened, and split this system over the last
few runs which seems reasonable given the presence of the downstream
ridge axis. The best prospects to see some light precipitation
would be mainly across far western Lassen County and into the
Surprise Valley. Rainfall amounts generally look light and generally
under a tenth of an inch of rainfall. There is even some potential
for a complete split of the low with no rainfall across the region.
This solution seems to be an outlier at this point and will keep
the very low end slight chance probabilities in the forecast.
Overall, can expect increased clouds Friday with ridging becoming
reestablished into early next week.
Temperatures will remain above normal for the end of the week and
into the weekend with Valley High temperatures reaching the upper
50s to lower 60s, with mountains mainly in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
This is warm for early February, but not pushing records, which are
about 5-10 degrees higher. Fuentes
Areas of light to moderate turbulence will continue through 06z this
evening with east winds along Sierra ridge tops still gusting in the
30-40kt range. Expecting winds across the ridges to lighten and turn
southwesterly by Tuesday afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected as high pressure remains in control
over the Sierra and northwest Nevada. Surface winds will remain light
with areas of patchy freezing fog possible in the Martis Valley,
including ktrk, early Tuesday morning, dissipating by around 15z.
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/Reno (all lower case)