Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Reno Nevada
220 PM PDT Friday Sep 4 2015

Synopsis...
winds will decrease this evening and tonight as a cold front moves
through northern Nevada. Temperatures will be fall like for the
Holiday weekend with overnight lows dropping into the 20s for
Sierra valleys and into the low to middle 30s for most western Nevada
valleys. Warmer weather will return by Tuesday with dry conditions
most of next week.

&&

Short term...

A vigorous low pressure system is moving through Oregon with a
cold front set to pass across northern Nevada tonight and early
Saturday morning. Ongoing gusty wind event will start to diminish
once the front passes, though lighter northwest and north winds
may persist through Saturday morning.

Despite the lack of moisture with the system, the instability and
lift with the low is strong with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms expected to continue developing north of Portola to
Pyramid Lake through this evening. Light showers may continue
along the front tonight and early Saturday morning. The NAM
develops quite a bit of low level moisture along the front, so
there could be a sprinkle or two as far south as Stead-Spanish
Springs to Fernley and into northern Churchill County.

Dry air and light winds behind the front will lead to cold morning
lows this weekend. The coldest lows are likely on Sunday morning
with most Sierra valleys dropping into the 20s with 30s to near 40
in the western Nevada valleys. Home gardeners with temperature
sensitive plants, especially tomatoes, will want to protect them.
Those heading out to Camp this weekend should pack cold weather
gear. Brong

Long term...Monday through Friday...

High pressure will build over the West Coast next week bringing a
quiet weather pattern to the region. Expect dry conditions, clear
skies, and lighter than usual winds.

Temperatures will trend back to above average, reaching around 90
degrees for western Nevada valleys and around 80 in the Sierra by
midweek. Tolby

&&

Aviation...

Current radar shows a few showers in Lassen, northern Washoe, and
Modoc counties and a few thunderstorms in Modoc County and far
northern Washoe. Cloud tops are estimated around 30-35 kft. Storms
are expected to continue through the afternoon and stay north of
a line from Susanville to Gerlach.

SW wind gusts up to 30-35 knots are expected to continue through
02z with areas of blowing dust downwind of Dry Lake beds. After
the front some areas could see lighter northwest winds persist through
Saturday morning. Some wind prone areas could see a few gusts in
excess of 40 kts. Ridge gusts currently 50-60 kts could last
through Saturday morning with associated turbulence in the Lee of
the Sierra. Tolby

&&

Fire weather...

All red flag warnings will remain in effect. Winds are picking up
with humidity dropping to 10-15% early this afternoon along the
Highway 395 corridor from Doyle southward across the western Nevada
Sierra front to Mono County. The peak wind speeds (gusts over 40
miles per hour at times) and lowest relative humidity (dropping into the upper single digits
in parts of west central nv) will occur during the middle and late
afternoon hours, and spread across the remainder of the warning
area.

Farther north, bands of showers have increased north of Susanville
and Gerlach. Isolated lightning strikes will remain possible through
early evening with limited rainfall. Humidity values should remain
above 20% in these areas through the afternoon with lightning
coverage too sparse for red flag criteria.

Both the winds and convective activity are expected to diminish
during the evening, with cooler conditions and improving humidity
recovery spreading across the region overnight. The highest
recovery will occur north of I-80 in Nevada, and from the Tahoe
basin northward in California.

The faster departure of the upper low on Saturday will result in
less wind compared to previous expectations. Some gusts could still
reach 30 miles per hour by late afternoon in west central Nevada south of Highway
50, but overall wind gusts are unlikely to exceed 25 miles per hour. For
Sunday, even lighter winds are expected (gusts 15 miles per hour or less) but
humidity will drop to the 10-15% range for most areas.

For Saturday night, reduced humidity recovery will begin for middle
slopes and ridge tops, but the more widespread trend of limited
humidity recovery, including more valley locations, is likely to
begin Sunday night.

Very dry air mass with limited humidity recovery will continue
through the upcoming week, but wind speeds each day are also
expected to be light. Mjd

&&

Rev watches/warnings/advisories...
Nevada...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening nvz002.

Blowing dust advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening nvz004-005.

Red flag warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening nvz453-459.

Red flag warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening nvz450.

Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for Pyramid Lake in nvz001-004.

California...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening caz071>073.

Red flag warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening caz273.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.Gov/Reno (all lower case)

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations