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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1014 am EDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014

Synopsis...Canadian high pressure will extend into the Carolinas
and middle Atlantic through mid-week. Moisture will be on the
increase Thursday and Friday as a coastal front spreads inland.


Near term /through Wednesday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...

Earlier cloud cover over much of the central and eastern portions of
the County Warning Area has dissipated at this time...however a new impulse of some
scattered to broken high clouds is moving into The Triad and Virginia
border counties and could persist going into early afternoon. No
precipitation is expected as low levels remain dry.

Light northerly flow and surface high pressure building in from the
northwest will keep temperatures unseasonably cool and relative
humidity values very comfortable for this time of year as thickness
dip to near 30 M below normal. This will yield highs in the upper
70s to middle 80s northwest to southeast. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Continued dry conditions will leave little chance of fog or low
stratus overnight.

Wednesday will have continued subsidence keeping dry conditions in
place with a slight warming trend but still in the low to middle 80s
for highs with upper 50s to low 60s once again for minimum

Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...

Upper level troughing will persist over the region on Thursday...
while at the surface cool...Canadian high pressure will still be
lingering across the area. All of this will lead to below normal
temperatures...with highs generally in the middle 80s and overnight lows in
the low/middle 60s. With the front (that moved through on monday)
remaining offshore...mostly dry conditions are expected...especially
as northwesterly flow aloft maintains a dry column...with precipitable water
values prognosticated to hover around an inch (if not less).


Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 300 am Tuesday...

By late in the week and especially into the weekend...the highly
amplified ridge over the Atlantic will shift westward...nudging the
highly upper level trough back towards the MS River Valley. As a
result...the lingering front/inverted trough will will also move
closer to the coast...and likely inland by the latter half of the
weekend. In addition...moisture will gradually increase (pwats
rising back over 1.5 inches by Friday...then approaching 2 inches by
Saturday/sunday) as flow aloft becomes more southwesterly. As a
result of all of this...will show precipitation chances gradually
increasing into the 30-40 percent range by Sunday/Monday. High temperatures
will still be in the low/middle 80s...with overnight lows in the
low/middle 60s early in the period and middle/upper 60s by late
weekend/early next week.


Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
as of 715 am Tuesday...

Dry airmass in place under high pressure building into the area will
produce VFR conditions through Thursday. Winds will remain light and
from the north.

An inland moving coastal trough will bring the next chance of rain
and associated sub-VFR conditions late Thursday/Friday and on into
the weekend.


Rah watches/warnings/advisories...



near term...Ellis

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