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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
MOVE AWAY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AND
EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

ONE STRONG SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PULLING WELL OUT TO SEA TODAY WHILE
ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE THE CLASSIC "COLD
AIR CHASING THE PRECIPITATION" AS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD DRY AIR LAGGING
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS.

THE LATEST MODELS AND TRENDS OF THE MODELS IN RECENT RUNS SUPPORT
THIS FORECAST; THEREFORE...IT IS OF HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CHANCE OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WVA THROUGH VA INSTEAD
OF THIS FAR SOUTH. WE WILL BE LEFT IN THE MILD SECTOR WITH SW FLOW
DURING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MEANS OURS WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS. 

FOR TODAY... INCREASING CLOUDINESS. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS TODAY
SHOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE SE. THIS WILL BE
AIDED BY THE SW BREEZE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH. 

AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER VA THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING... THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS LARGELY A DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
HOWEVER... SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES MODELS
SHOW SOME LINGERING MOISTURE MAY GET WRUNG OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS OR
PATCHY FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AND
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH. AT THE CURRENT TIME... IT APPEARS THAT A QUICK
DUSTING OR TRACE AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR AREAS
AROUND ROXBORO TO ROCKY MOUNT TO THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE... THE

COLD DRY ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY END THE SHOWER THREAT. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10-15 MPH. LOWS WITH CAA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 25-
30 RANGE NW... AND LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 227 AM MONDAY...

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE VERY COLD MID/UPPER TROUGH DIVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT AND AFTERNOON STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE... THE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL NOT SEE MEASURABLE OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NW... TO NEAR 50 SE. 

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD WITH DIMINISHING NW
WINDS. LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 NW TO 25-28 SE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM MONDAY...

...A SECONDARY COLDER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DESCEND SOUTH
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND... 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:

CORE OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH(H5ANOMALIES 2 TO 4 SD BELOW NORMAL)IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN US WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. H8 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT ~15C WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES 1240-1245M WEDNESDAY NIGHT...60 TO 70 METERS BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH
TO UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 SOUTH. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY:

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BRIEFLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FRIDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT OF
CANADA...ANCHORED BY A STRONG VORTEX DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...LEADS TO
RENEWED AMPLIFICATION OF THE COLD EASTERN US TROUGH WITH EVEN COLDER
ARCTIC AIR DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. 

AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME...ONE FEATURE WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE EVENTUAL TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE
DIVING DOWN THE BACK-SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

BOTH THE EC AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER MID-WEEK ARCTIC
INTRUSION WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE WEEKEND INTRUSION WITH H8
PROGGED TO BE IN THE -20TO -25C WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES TANKING
TO 1210-1215M. IF THESE INCREDIBLY COLD THICKNESSES VERIFY...HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...

FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z
TODAY. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. OUT AHEAD OF THIS QUICK MOVING SYSTEM... SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-20KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT
KINT/KGSO... THEN KRDU AND KRWI BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR...WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25KT WED AND THU.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.


&&

$$ 
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT 
NEAR TERM...BADGETT 
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...CBL 
AVIATION...BADGETT

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