Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
308 PM EDT Wednesday Oct 22 2014
Synopsis...a potent upper level low will meander along the middle
Atlantic coast tonight...then gradually track further offshore on
Thursday. A series of upper level disturbances will cross the region
in northwest flow aloft on Friday and Saturday.
Near term /tonight through Thursday night/...
as of 300 PM Wednesday...
A potent upper level low will meander along the middle Atlantic coast
tonight...then gradually track further offshore Thursday/Thursday night. An
upper level ridge will prevail upstream across the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
through tonight...deamplifying late Thursday into Thursday night as potent
shortwave energy rounds the top of a deep upper level ridge over The
Rockies and digs southeast toward the Appalachians. Central NC will
remain on the dry/subsident western periphery of the upper low
through Thursday...with no chance for precipitation. With such a dry
airmass in place...and little more than modest height falls expected
in advance of shortwave energy approaching the Appalachians from the
west late Thursday/Thursday night...expect dry conditions to persist through
12z Friday. Anticipate high/low temperatures near normal for this time of
Short term /Friday and Friday night/...
as of 247 PM Wednesday...
High pressure is expected to be centered over the Gulf Coast states
and extend across our region Friday. Winds will become light and
variable Friday as the influence of the departing upper low to our
NE wanes for central NC. Mostly sunny skies are expected with
temperatures generally a few degrees above normal. Highs 70-75.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
as of 247 PM Wednesday...
A backdoor front is forecast to slip through our region from the
north on Sunday. It should pass relatively unnoticed other than a
wind shift to the north... but speeds should remain light (generally
10 miles per hour or less). Cold air advection will be felt mostly after dark Sunday but (dry
air advection will start early in the day as dew points will drop
off more significantly. Highs generally in the 70-73 range Sunday
with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures Monday should be in the middle to
upper 60s... then moderate quickly back into 70-75 range Tuesday and
Wednesday. Mostly clear/sunny skies are expected with the high
pressure being dominate. The next cold front is not expected until
sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night - and current indications
suggest that it should be a dry frontal passage as well.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 200 PM Wednesday...
24-hour taf period: VFR conditions will rule through the taf period in
associated/west a dry northwest flow upstream of a potent upper level low
stalled along the middle-Atlantic coast. A northwest breeze sustained at 10-15
knots with gusts up to 20 knots will weaken to 5-10 knots by sunset...then
increase to 10-15 knots after sunrise Thursday.
Looking ahead: a prolonged period of VFR conditions will persist
into the weekend in associated/west a dry northwest flow aloft. -Vincent