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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1130 am MDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 458 am MDT Monday Aug 31 2015

..increased thunderstorm activity today...

Active monsoon plume extends across western and central Colorado early this
morning with showers and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of
western Colorado. Several embedded disturbances can be seen within this
plume with one across northwest Colorado...and a second across NE Arizona
moving towards southwest Colorado. Meanwhile...upper trough is currently
ejecting through the northern/US rockies of Mt/WY. This will send a
front into southeast Colorado this morning.

With shortwave already entering southwest Colorado...should see an active
day for thunderstorms across the region with thunderstorms
increasing by middle morning across the west...and by noon across the
southeast mts...and during the afternoon and evening across the
southeast plains. Cape does not look terribly impressive...and deep
layer shears are fairly weak...but with precipitation waters increasing to
around .75 to 1... heavy rainfall and lightning will be
the main storm threats today. With increased flow aloft
today...storm motions should be to the northeast around 25 miles per hour.
Ordinarily...storm motions like these should minimize the threat for
flash flooding...but burn scars will still have to monitored closely
this afternoon...especially Waldo and West Fork. Even for these
areas...appears storm will be hit or miss...but low end potential
for flash flooding will still there. Initial surge of the front
doesn't appear to carry much cooling behind hit...so think if
anything this may help temperatures to warm more quickly this
morning. So high temperatures today will still be quite warm out
east. Looks like a stronger push of cooler air will move in later
this afternoon and evening...enhanced and aided by convective
outflows.

Thunderstorms should be pushing eastward into Kansas during the evening
hours with convection decreasing over the majority of southern Colorado
tonight. Will keep some isolated activity going along the
Continental Divide during the overnight hours where there may still
be some lingering showers within the monsoon plume. -Kt

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 458 am MDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Not many adjustments needed from earlier forecast thinking
with temperatures and probability of precipitation remaining primary longer term
meteorological challenges.

Overall...anticipate that generally above seasonal early September
temperatures(outside of Sunday...where below seasonal temperatures
are projected) as well as isolated to scattered(primarily
afternoon into night-time showers and thunderstorms) are expected
over many sections of the forecast district during the longer
term as adequate atmospheric moisture combines with upper energy
and surface boundaries at times. As always...any stronger
thunderstorm activity will be monitored for flooding
concerns/issues...especially over recent burn scars.

It still appears that the highest potential for widespread
precipitation should develop by later this weekend as a north to
northeasterly surface surge interacts with an upper disturbance
and a favorable atmospheric moisture profile.

Warmest conditions during the longer term should be noted from
Tuesday into Thursday...while coolest temperatures are anticipated
this weekend. Finally...the highest potential for stronger
gradients winds are anticipated from Friday into Saturday night.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1125 am MDT Monday Aug 31 2015

Kals...showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the
mountains and spread across the San Luis valley through this
evening. If one of these convective cores can move over the
terminal it would bring briefly reduced visible and ceilings...especially
from 20z through 02z/tues.

Kcos...a cold front will bring northwesterly flow to the terminal
this afternoon along with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms...especially from 22z through 03z/tues. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible along with gusty outflow winds. Reduced
visible and ceilings to near MVFR are expected with thunderstorms as they
pass. Expect improving conditions this evening.

Kpub...a cold front will bring breezy northwest winds to the
terminal this afternoon along with regional showers and
thunderstorms...especially from 21z through 02z/tues. If one of
these thunderstorms moves over the terminal...it will be capable
of producing brief periods of reduced visible and ceilings. A few model
solutions do bring heavier thunderstorms around kpub...so this
will need to be monitored. Mozley

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Aviation...mozley

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