Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
408 am MDT Monday Mar 17 2014
Short term...(today and tonight)
An upper trough will move into Wyoming today and then across Colorado tonight...
resulting in increasing westerly flow aloft and strong westerly
winds at the surface in the late morning through the early evening
hours. The strong winds today will cause areas of blowing dust across
the southeastern plains and portions of the San Luis valley. At this time
do not feel confident enough that there will be widespread visibilities of 1
mile or less in the blowing dust...to issue a blowing dust advisory.
However I am sure that there will be localized areas of blowing dust
reducing the visibilities below 1 Mile. High temperatures today will be well
above normal and conditions will be quite dry across much of the
area...but relative humidity values should fall to below 15 percent across the southeastern
plains...and when combined with the gusty winds...will create critical
fire weather conditions and thus the red flag warning that is in
place still looks good. It also looks like relative humidity values will fall below
15 percent for a short time in the San Luis valley and maybe the upper
Arkansas River valley of Chaffee County...but it did not look like
it would last long enough to meet red flag critiera. With the upper
trough approaching today some showers are expected to develop in the
central mountains this afternoon...with some isolated to scattered showers over
the southwestern Colorado mountains...with some precipitation likely continuing through the
night...especially over the central mountains
Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
Tuesday...Tuesday morning the upper trough axis will be sliding to the
east out of Colorado...but a secondary disturbance will sweep across
the state keeping the threat of precipitation in place for the higher terrain
into the night and even into early Wednesday morning. A cool day will be
on tap...with maximum temperatures struggling to reach 50 f across the plains
and high valleys. The main concern will be strong and gusty west-northwest
winds across the far eastern plains through the day. Gusts to 50 miles per hour
will not be out of the question for portions of Kiowa...bent and
Prowers counties through the morning and early afternoon.
Wednesday through Friday...the upper features move off Wednesday
morning...setting up for about 3 days of zonal flow aloft for the
state. Dry and mild conditions are expected through the rest of the
work week. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s pushing 60 f on
Wednesday...and 60s to near 70 f on Thursday. On Friday...surface high pressure is
expected to drop down the midsection of the country...so a lighter
easterly low level flow will help to keep temperatures a bit cooler for Friday.
Saturday and Sunday...temperatures in the 50s will continue over the
weekend as a weak shortwave drops out of the Pacific northwest and approaches
Colorado. This will increase precipitation chances for the Continental Divide each day.
In addition...surface hi pressure over the central US will persist...and 2
to 3 days of easterly low level flow will draw some moisture back into
the eastern plains and produce enhanced cloud cover as well as
isolated showers along the Colorado and Kansas state line. Moore
Should have VFR conditions today at kcos...kpub and kals...although
there could be some blowing dust in the vicinity of the taf sites this
afternoon which could reduce visibilities for a time. Gusty westerly winds
can be expected...mainly in the afternoon and early evening
hours...with gusts mainly in the 30-40 knots range.
red flag warning from 11 am this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for coz222-226>237.