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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1100 am MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 420 am MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

WV satellite imagery showing upper low circulation over west central
Utah at 09z...with a band of drier air working into western Colorado. A band of
precipitation is moving northeastward across Chaffee County and the northern
sangres. This will still affect Fremont and Teller counties early
this morning. Some isolated showers are still showing up on radar over
the far southeastern plains...with some additional showers/thunderstorm slowly
working northeastward over north central nm...which will affect the southern
sangres and Las Animas County. With the drier air working into western
areas will cut back on probability of precipitation over the San Luis valley and SW mts for the
early morning hours...but will leave isolated probability of precipitation other areas.
Precipitable water values today are forecast to be lower than
yesterday with around 0.5 over western portions of the County Warning Area to about 1.2
inches over the far southeastern plains. The upper low is forecast to track
east-northeast today...moving into the northwest corner of Colorado by 00z Thursday. With the
daytime heating and upper forcing moving into western Colorado this
afternoon...the Continental Divide should see the highest chances for precipitation
today...spreading to the Teller County and El Paso County area by
the late afternoon and evening hours. The forecast models generally
show isolated precipitation chance across most of the rest of the forecast area.

Tonight the upper low slowly moves eastward over northern Colorado...with a
front pushing southward into southeastern Colorado. The WRF show precipitation ending over
the area by 06z...while the NAM and GFS keep some precipitation chance across
much of the area through the night. Will go with scattered probability of precipitation over northern
portions of the County Warning Area in the overnight hours...and isolated probability of precipitation farther
south.

Locally heavy rain and flash flooding will again be a threat...but not
a widespread threat to warrant a Flash Flood Watch. Could see one
or two severe storms this afternoon with hail around 1 inch diameter
and wind gusts around 60 miles per hour...mainly east of a line from the Palmer
dvd to klhx and south through eastern Las Animas County.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 420 am MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

..cool and unsettled weather through Thursday with a warming and
drying trend into the Holiday weekend...

Thursday-Thursday night...the broad upper trough across The Rockies
is prognosticated to slowly lift out into the northern and Central High
plains through Thursday night with some subtle differences remaining
on location of main vorticity maximum. The latest NAM is the furtherest south
across southeast Colorado...where as the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS are further
north across NE Colorado. At any rate...with cool air aloft and a
weak cold front sliding across the eastern plains associated with
the passing system...should see isolated to scattered showers over
and near the higher terrain early Thursday...with showers and
thunderstorms increasing in coverage across the mountains and
spreading across the eastern plains through the afternoon and
evening. Showers and storms to diminish from west to east Thursday
evening and through the night with subsident north to northwest flow
aloft developing behind the system. Models continue to indicate
main monsoonal moisture plume pushing east of the area...though with
the cool air aloft...can not rule out some stronger storms producing
locally heavy rainfall and penny to nickel sized hail. Well below
seasonal temperatures expected on Thursday...with several inches of
snow on the higher mountain peaks still possible.

Friday-Sunday...a warming and drying trend still remains on tap
into the Holiday weekend...with brisk westerly flow developing
across the region. Some differences in location of main storm track
with the GFS keeping it further north across the northern tier of
states whereas the European model (ecmwf) is further south bringing embedded short
waves across The Rockies Saturday and Sunday. With that said...can
not rule out a few afternoon showers and storms...mainly over the
higher terrain through the period. Storms that do develop will be
higher based and less efficient at producing wetting rains...as
available moisture thins out. The warmer and drier air aloft will
allow temperatures to rebound to at and above seasonal averages
through the period.

Monday-Wednesday...latest models continue to differ on storm tracks
with the ec still sending a weak backdoor cold front across eastern
Colorado on Monday with an associated short wave diving across the
northern High Plains...where as the GFS keeps this system further
north. With that said...have kept previous slight probability of precipitation across the
area Monday and Tuesday...with temperatures cooling slightly through
the period.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1053 am MDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014

An upper trough will move across the region during the next 24
hours. This system will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms
to the taf sites between middle afternoon and early evening. The
best chance of storms will be over kcos. Gusty winds to 40 miles per hour and
small hail will be possible over and near kcos.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...28
long term...mw
aviation...hodanish

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