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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
919 am MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

issued at 919 am MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

Updated for more clouds and fog across the lower Arkansas River
valley this morning.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 347 am MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015


Upper low was located vicinity Las Vegas. Quite a few showers/thunderstorms and rain
were noted over Utah and across west Colorado. A few of these showers were
noted along the Continental Divide at 3 am...with a few possibly in the north
sangres. Some high cloudiness was noted over the region...with the
low clouds south of the Raton Mesa in nm...and up in northeast Colorado.


Expect to see some low clouds and fog develop over parts of the
plains...especially the far east plains and north El Paso County.

Conditions will become more favorable for showers/thunderstorms and rain over the mountains
today as flow becomes more diffluent aloft and moisture continues
to get advected northward as upper low moves east-southeast. Overall best
chance of precipitation will be over the Continental Divide...especially this
afternoon. By later in the day...precipitation will develop farther
east...especially over the Pikes Peak region as diffluent flow and
associated lift moves over this region.

Some shear will be in place along with marginal cape. We may see the
potential for locally heavy showers over the area...and latest runs
of the hrrr are showing some red cores moving across the Pikes Peak
region later today. It should be noted some areas northwest of Pikes Peak
received over an inch of rain yesterday.

Temperatures will be warm again today...with highs in the 70s to around 80f
on the plains...and 60s and 70s valleys.


Expect more middle level clouds on the plains. Overall shower activity
will decrease as the night progresses...with best chances remaining
over the SW mountains and Pikes Peak region. Upper low will start to move
back towards the S-SW later tonight. \/Hodanish

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 347 am MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

..warm and dry conditions to return to southern Colorado...

Models in good agreement with the pattern evolution over the next
seven days with low ensemble spreads. Expect active weather to
turn dry and warm by the weekend.

Wednesday through Friday...a large upper level low over the Desert
Southwest will drift south into northern Mexico while weak energy
moves across Colorado in increasing northwest flow.

The most active day appears to be Wednesday with moisture and
energy wrapping northward around the upper level low to the south.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday
morning...initially over the southern mountains...expanding
northward across the region Wednesday afternoon. Models favoring
the southern sangre Delaware cristo range and Raton Mesa regions and
have the highest probability of precipitation in those locations. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible along with lightning and gusty outflow winds with
thunderstorms. Expect activity to dissipate overnight Wednesday

The upper low will shift southward on Thursday with southern
Colorado becoming more under the influence of northwest flow
aloft. Drier air will begin to work into the area Thursday.
Expect only isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the
mountains during the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure
aloft over the Great Basin will begin to work eastward on Friday.
Expect even less shower and thunderstorm coverage over the
mountains Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will slowly
warm through the end of the work week with generally 70s across
the region.

Saturday through Monday...high pressure over the Great Basin will
move across the area for the weekend...with more zonal westerly
flow developing by early next week. This will allow for dry and
warm conditions across all of southern Colorado. Temperatures will
warm back into the middle 80s across the plains...a good 10 degrees
above normal for this time of year. Mozley


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 347 am MDT Tuesday Oct 6 2015

We should see primarily VFR conditions next 24h at all 3 taf
sites... and kcos. Lots of moisture will be over the
region next 24h as upper low keeps advecting moisture over the area.
Believe middle level cloudiness should prevent fog from forming over the
taf sites...but if we clear out then I cant rule it out. We will
also have passing showers and storms over the region today...with
the best chance during the afternoon and early evening hours.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...

short term...hodanish
long term...mozley

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