Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
354 PM MDT sun Mar 16 2014
Short term...tonight and Monday.
Primary near/short term meteorological issues include
temperatures...critical fire weather conditions developing over
eastern sections of the forecast district...especially from Monday
afternoon into Monday evening and increasing chances for
snow...especially over the central mountains by later Monday.
Forecast district currently graced by generally clear skies
and low-grade gradient winds in combination with near to above middle-
March climatological average temperatures over the western two-
thirds of the forecast district...while the eastern one-third of the
County warning forecast area noting below climatological average temperatures.
The combination of increasing westerly component winds...well above
average temperatures and projected low dew-points/relative humidity
values has prompted the issuance of a red flag warning over the
Interstate 25 corridor...the southeastern Colorado plains and
Fremont County from late Monday morning into Monday evening.
In addition to the increasing winds...maximum temperatures on Monday
are projected to run some 10f to 20f above middle-March climatological
averages over many locations...especially eastern sections.
Also...as an upper disturbance approaches the forecast district by
later Monday...anticipate that an inch or so of snow may be noted
over portions of the central mountains by 00z Tuesday.
Long term...Monday night through Saturday.
Rather benign pattern setting up this period as a rather flat
zonal pattern will dominate during this forecast time frame.
Overall..this pattern will keep the area below normal with respect
to precipitation...with temperatures at or a bit above seasonal values.
The only precipitation will occur at the beginning of the time
period...Monday evening and early Tuesday...mainly over the
central mountains this precipitation is associated with a short wave moving
across the region Monday night. This wave will bring cooler weather to
the area Tuesday. It may also bring some light showers over the
plains north of Highway 50 late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Some more additional light precipitation will be possible at the end of
the forecast period...next weekend...over the Continental Divide.
We may have some more fire weather issues to deal with on Thursday as a
short wave moves east in the zonal flow to our north. This will
cause a Lee trough to form over the eastern plains and the ensuing
downslope flow will cause surface temperatures to rise into the 70s and dewpoints
to tank into the single digits.
If the long range guidance is correct...then the pattern should
become more amplified during the end of March. \/Hodanish
The kals...kcos and kpub taf sites should continue to experience VFR
conditions through tonight as a dry and relatively mild
meteorological pattern develops over southern Colorado.
red flag warning from 11 am to 8 PM MDT Monday for coz222-