Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1028 am MST Sat Jan 31 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 341 am MST Sat Jan 31 2015

Currently...the upper low was located over southern Nevada and California this
morning...and was continuing to pump moisture up across
nm...co...and the Texas and OK panhandles. Thick cloud cover has kept
temperatures in the 30s for most locations...and in the 20s for the mts
where light snow continued.

Today and tonight...models continue to indicate that the low to the
SW of Colorado will be shoved south through the day...as the
shortwave to the north drops down across Montana and Wyoming. This will allow
precipitation to taper off through the morning for most locations...before a
cold front drops south across the Palmer dvd sometime between 18z
and 21z. The frontal passage will serve as the trigger for a
resurgence of precipitation for the east mts and across the plains...and as the
colder air filters in rain should switch over the snow through the
evening. Snow amounts for the plains should not amount to much more
than perhaps an inch...but latest solutions show activity persisting
over the S sangres later into the night...so had to extend the
Winter Weather Advisory there. Otherwise...ongoing highlights look
reasonable and no need for big changes. As for temperatures...a slightly
later start time for activity across the plains as well as somewhat
mild temperatures to start the day means that maximum temperatures today should climb
into the lower to middle 40s for the plains...and the middle to upper 30s
for the high valleys. Moore

Long term...(sunday through friday)
issued at 341 am MST Sat Jan 31 2015

Lingering mainly upslope driven snow will diminish quickly Sunday
morning across the southeast mts/plains as the upper trough shifts eastward
into the plains. Cold air continues to filter in behind the front
on Sunday which will keep temperatures in the 30s across the lower
elevations.

Temperatures should cool quickly Sunday evening before Lee trough
redevelops and lower elevations of the southeast mts/I-25 corridor
begin to warm overnight. Next shortwave will move in late spreading
light snow into the central mountains...and widespread high
cloudiness across the remainder of the area. Accumulations will
remain light through Monday...with snowfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches
across the Sawatch and mosquitoes. Meanwhile...should see a good
warm up for Monday as the shortwave moves into the Central Plains
kicking the Lee trough eastward and spreading westerly downslope winds
across the plains. Highs should warm well into the 50s for the
lower elevations.

West northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures above normal for
Tuesday. Extended models bring the next upper trough across the area
on Wednesday...driving a cold front across the region. GFS is back
to its more amplified and hence wetter solution for southern Colorado.
European model (ecmwf) is less amplified...hence not as cold or as wet as the GFS
solution. Canadian sides closer to the GFS. Will maintain isolated
probability of precipitation for the plains for now...and shade temperatures down a couple
degrees from the warmer model consensus solution. Central mountains
should fair the best with snowfall from this system given northwest
orographic flow...with a few inches of snow possible. Greater
uncertainty exists for the southeast mts and plains given the model
differences...so will stay the course for now.

Flat upper ridge translates eastward for Friday and Saturday
bringing a nice warm up into next weekend. -Kt

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1014 am MST Sat Jan 31 2015

At kals...IFR stratus slow to dissipate over the San Luis
valley...and will keep lower clouds in place until middle-afternoon
with slow improvement to MVFR 20z-21z. Snow shower chances
increase after 21z with MVFR conditions continuing...and may see
some brief IFR visibility under a few heavier showers. After
06z-08z...drier air begins to move across the valley with ceilings
lifting/dissipating...though some patchy ground fog may make a
brief appearance around sunrise.

At kcos...patchy MVFR stratus will continue near the terminal
through the afternoon along with a few very light -shra/-shsn.
Better chance for showers and a period of IFR visible looks likely
23z-05z as cold front drops south through the region. After 05z-
07z...shower chances fade away...though MVFR stratus may linger
through middle-morning Sunday.

At kpub...VFR conditions until late afternoon...then a period of
MVFR as cold front passes and a few -shra/-shsn develop. Showers
end 06z-08z with lingering MVFR stratus until middle-morning Sunday.

Over the mountains...most higher terrain will be obscured by
clouds and snow showers today and tonight...with some clearing
working from west to east late tonight into middle morning Sunday.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for coz058-
060-061-066>068-073.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for coz074-
075.

&&

$$

Short term...Moore
long term...knots
aviation...petersen

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations