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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
456 am MDT sun Aug 30 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 455 am MDT sun Aug 30 2015

Upper trough across entering the Pacific northwest will move into the
northern U.S rockies nudging the upper ridge eastward into the Central
Plains. This will allow a slightly better tap of moisture to spread
into western portions of the area today in increasing southwest
flow. This should increase thunderstorm coverage this afternoon
across the mountains...though dew points still look a little on the
low side with readings in the 30s and lower 40s by afternoon. Could
see some local moderate to briefly heavy rainfall with the isolated
stronger storms...but given the predominantly inverted v soundings
..gusty winds and lightning look to be the primary storm threats.
With more of a southwest component to wind field aloft today...a few
of these storms may try to spread eastward into the adjacent plains
late this afternoon and evening...but surface dew points will still be
fairly low (upper 30s/lower 40s). So expect any thunderstorms to
weaken and/or diminish as they push off the mountains. Thus will
keep probability of precipitation confined mainly to the mountains/valleys today.
Temperatures today will warm a few degrees over
yesterday...particularly across the southeast plains.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue along the Continental Divide
through the night as the monsoon plume with embedded weak
disturbances continues to spread up from the Desert Southwest.
Elsewhere...thunderstorms should diminish during the evening hours.
Increasing middle/high cloudiness should keep min temperatures on the mild
side tonight. Upper trough passing to the north will send a cold
front into northern portions of the southeast plains towards 12z
Monday. -Kt

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 455 am MDT sun Aug 30 2015

Primary longer term meteorological concerns include probability of precipitation and
temperatures.

Initially...the combination of an upper shortwave...adequate
atmospheric moisture and a northerly to northeasterly surface
surge is expected to allow for increasing precipitation chances
as well as cooler conditions over many sections of the forecast
district from Monday into Monday night.

A return to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
in combination with generally above climatological temperatures is
then anticipated from Tuesday into early next weekend as an upper
high is projected to become centered over the southern New
Mexico/far West Texas region during this time-frame.

A return to increasing probability of precipitation as well as cooler temperatures is then
expected by later next weekend as stronger surface front impacts
the region.

At this time...it appears that the warmest conditions during the
longer term should be experienced Wednesday and Thursday with
coolest conditions projected Monday and saturday(although as
touched upon earlier...temperatures should continue to remain
above early September climatological averages into early next
weekend).

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 455 am MDT sun Aug 30 2015

VFR conditions expected again today for the taf sites...with
thunderstorms more likely to stay confined to the mountain areas once
again. Increasing southwest flow aloft will mean storm will move
towards the northeast...and could see gusty southwesterly winds
15-25 kts from thunderstorm outflows spread into the kals terminal
during the late afternoon/early evening. Meanwhile...kcos and kpub
should see winds out of the southeast to south with speeds
generally under 15 kts. Thunderstorms should diminish for most
areas during the evening...although some will linger along the
Continental Divide through the night. Taf sites will remain VFR. -Kt

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...

None.

&&

$$

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