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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
320 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 153 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

..a few showers and thunderstorms finally making their way north...

Not a lot...but a few. More than yesterday at this time. What you
see is what you get. Should see a few showers or thunderstorms
continue in the area along the New Mexico border...mainly over and
near the mountains south of Highway 160...into the early evening
hours...before dissipating. Primary threats would be lightning and
wind gusts to about 45 miles per hour.

On Monday...should see a bit more afternoon and evening shower and
thunderstorm activity...and a bit farther about Highway
50 or so. Primary threats would be the same...lightning and gusts
to about 45 miles per hour. Most activity should be over the mountains...but
could be some bleed over onto the adjacent valleys and plains.

Warming back up tomorrow...with highs creeping up to around 15 or so
degrees above average again. Seems like above average temperatures
are the norm these days.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 153 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

Monday night...a weak shortwave and accompanying moisture will
keep the possibility for showers going through midnight...
especially across the southern higher terrain. Lapse rates will
allow for the chance for thunder. Lower elevations should stay
mainly dry...with very light rain...virga possibility.

Tuesday and Tuesday evening...moister is pretty only a
few showers will pop up middle-afternoon across the higher terrain.
With shortwave ridge across the County Warning Area...high temperatures should
reach into the middle 70s to lower 80s across the plains...with 60s
and 70s high valleys and 40s and 50s mountains.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...flow will become zonal aloft and
strengthen...and temperatures will be comparable to Tuesday. Models
focus on this day as being the driest and most windy across all
the County Warning fire weather interests should be watchful. 700 mb
winds increase into the 20 to 30 knots range and fire danger will
increase on the plains during the afternoon. Mountains will be
breezy to windy...and a few showers may develop by late day as the
trough approaches. A cold front will move through the plains
during the evening. Moisture will increase and low level winds
will turn from a easterly direction.

Thursday and Friday...the GFS and European have divergent
solutions...makes the forecaster confidence rather low. Thursday
may be quite breezy to windy across the western section of the
County Warning there may be fire weather concerns.The European model is
moving the shortwave through much faster...which brings more
moisture into the plains...while the GFS holds the trough back to
the west. The GFS brings the cooler air in later across the plains
(later friday)...which the European has ridging and drying by
then. The forecast procedure has the coolest day Friday with the
focus of precipitation across northern Colorado and isolated to
scattered activity in our County Warning Area.

Models are in general agreement with upper ridging for the weekend
and moderating temperatures. -Tlm-


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 153 PM MDT sun Mar 29 2015

Moisture moving up from the southwest will produce a few showers or
thunderstorms over the higher terrain this afternoon into this
evening...mainly over and near the mountains south of Highway 160.
This same moisture may produce a few more showers or thunderstorms a
little farther north on Monday...this time mainly south of Highway
50...and mainly after 18z. For the kcos...kpub and kals taf
sites...conditions are expected to remain VFR for the next 24


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...lw

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