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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
414 am MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 348 am MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

..drying and warming trend starts today...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
moderate northwesterly flow aloft across the region with a long wave
trough from the upper Great Lakes through the southern High Plains
translating east across the central and eastern Continental U.S....as high
pressure aloft builds across the West Coast. Water vapor imagery
also indicating eastern Pacific energy topping the ridge across the
Pacific northwest and into the northern tier at this time.

Regional satellite data indicating mainly clear skies across the
area...save some patchy stratus still in place across El Paso
County...the southern I-25 and Highway 50 corridors at this time. Infrared
satellite data also indicating cold temperatures across portions of
the central mts and high Montana valleys...with Leadville down to -11f as
of 2 am MST. With the fresh snowpack...light winds and clearing
skies...Colorado Springs has set a new record low for March
5th...falling to -2f as of 2am...breaking the previous record low of
3f set in 1969. While still cold in Pueblo...4f as of 2 am...the
record low of -20f set in 1948 will not be broken today.

Today and tonight...northwest flow aloft slowly moderates through
tonight as West Coast upper level ridge continues to build west into
the Great Basin. Embedded wave moving across the northern tier
continues across the northern rockies today...spreading some high
level clouds across the area through the afternoon but no
precipitation. Temperatures aloft warm slowly through tonight...with highs
expected to still be below seasonal averages topping out in the middle
30s to middle 40s across the lower elevations and mainly 20s and 30s
across the higher terrain. Warmest readings across the plains to be
in areas with the least snowcover to melt. With the warming aloft...
overnight lows to be warmer than this morning...though still below
seasonal averages...mainly in the single digits and teens. The
warmest readings are expected across the higher terrain west of the
I-25 corridor with weak Lee troughing and downslope flow overnight.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 348 am MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Weak northwest flow aloft will continue from Friday through the
weekend...allowing maximum temperatures to creep back upward toward seasonal
averages Friday...then remain there Sat/sun. Weak upper wave does
crest the western U.S. Upper ridge latitude Sat...then dives southward
into the southern rockies by sun evening before exiting the region
Monday morning. May be just enough lift with this feature to
generate a few -shsn over the higher peaks Sun afternoon and
evening...though any accumulation will be minor. Upper flow then
flattens Mon-Wed...with warmer air spreading across all of
southern Colorado as winds become downslope and 700 mb temperatures warm
to above 0c by Wednesday. Next precipitation chance won't arrive until Thursday or
later as western ridge is gradually replaced by a rather broad
trough toward the end of the week.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 348 am MST Thursday Mar 5 2015

Patchy IFR to LIFR stratus across portions of the southern I-25 and
Highway 50 corridors early this morning is expected to continue to
diminish as drier air within northwesterly flow aloft continues to
work into the region. With that said...expecting VFR conditions at
cos...pub and als from 12z Thursday through 12z Friday and beyond.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...mw
long term...petersen
aviation...mw

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