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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
310 PM MDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 307 PM MDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Currently...a ridge of high pressure was centered over Wyoming and Colorado
today...while the remnant of Odile was gradually tracking east into
central/south central nm. Plenty of sun and warm temperatures across the
County Warning Area today...with maximum temperatures in the 80s to around 90 f for the
plains...and 70s for the high valleys. As of 245 PM...a few cumulus had
developed over the higher terrain...but no convective activity
reported yet.

Tonight and tomorrow...short term models have been trending on
keeping Odile and the associated moisture well to the south through
the night...with just a hint of shower activity creeping up across
the southern Colorado border overnight tonight and then increasing through
tomorrow. Therefore...over the next 24 hours the upper ridge axis is
forecast to slide to the east as the ridge flattens by midday
Friday. A more southern trajectory of the moisture tap means that
isolated convection at best overnight along the southern border is
probably the best bet...then possibly increasing in coverage by
midday and through the afternoon tomorrow especially for the southern
areas. This solution also means that maximum temperatures tomorrow will be
slightly warmer...and closer to readings recorded today. Look for
maximum temperatures in the 80s to near 90 f for the plains...with 70s over the
high valleys. Moore

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 307 PM MDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

Friday night through Saturday night...southeastern Colorado will
remain under high pressure aloft during this period as a cut off low
sets up off of the California coast and begins to move into the
Great Basin Sunday. Could see a slight uptick in the amount of
convection late in the weekend...but most of the activity will
remain to our south and west during this period.

The closed upper low opens up and moves east from the Great Basin
across Wyoming and into the northern plains by Wednesday morning. As
this system moves into the Rocky Mountains...expect to see an
increase in moisture and chances for precipitation from Sunday
afternoon through Monday...with most of the precipitation shifting
to the east of our area Tuesday.

Next transient upper ridge will build over the region Wednesday into
Thursday. Progressive flow pattern with northern stream being fairly
active during this period. Not a lot of cold air with any of these
systems so daytime high temperatures may be dependent on cloud cover
as the wave moves out of The Rockies and onto the plains early in
the week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 307 PM MDT Thursday Sep 18 2014

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours for a majority of the
region...including the three main taf sites of kcos...kpub and kals.
Isolated convection a possibility along the Continental Divide this evening...and
along the Colorado/nm border overnight. The main threats will be gusts to
40 kts and cloud-to-ground lightning.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Moore
long term...Stark

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