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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
345 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 343 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015

Current water vapor and satellite imagery indicating an upper low
spinning across southwestern Kansas with water vapor imagery also
indicating another minor wave moving across the northern rockies at
this time. Regional radars are indicating the main wrap around
precipitation shield associated with the low across northwestern
Kansas through the northeast Colorado plains...the eastern I-70
corridor and into Crowley...Otero...Kiowa...bent and eastern Las
Animas counties at this time. Regional radars also indicating
showers across the northern Front Range spilling into Teller and El
Paso counties at this time. At the surface...pressure rises behind the
passing system has allowed for breezy northerly winds of 20-30 miles per hour
to develop over northern portions of the southeast plains over the
past few hours.

Today and tonight...latest models seem to have caught up on movement
of the upper low to the south and east into western Oklahoma with
northwest flow aloft increasing across the area through the day as
the northern rockies embedded wave continues to translate south and
east across the state. With that said...will see wrap around rain
shield moving south and east across the far southeast plains through the
early morning hours with precipitation diminishing from northwest to
southeast through the late morning and early afternoon. Pikes Peak
region and southeast mountains rain and snow showers to diminish
through the early morning hours...with any snow accumulations being
generally light and spotty. Gusty north winds of 25 to 45 miles per hour across
the eastern plains this morning to also diminish from northwest to
southeast across the plains through the late morning and early
afternoon.

Northern rockies passing wave will allow for isolated to scattered
showers to develop over and near the higher terrain this afternoon
with showers diminishing through the evening hours. Showers could
redevelop again across the central mts through the overnight hours
as yet another embedded wave translates across the northern rockies.
Any snow accumulations this afternoon and evening again look to be
light and spotty. Temperatures today to be cooler than yesterday
with highs in the 40s and 50s across the lower elevations and mainly
30s across the higher terrain with overnight lows mainly in the 20s
and 30s.

Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 343 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015

Generally unsettled weather is expected through the extended forecast
period.

An upper level weather disturbance will move across the area in the northwest
flow aloft...bringing chances for precipitation to much of the area. The
mountains will see the best chances for precipitation...along with some light snow
accumulations at the high elevations. Temperatures on Monday are still
expected to be below average by about 10 degrees over the southeastern plains
and just slightly below in the San Luis valley. Precipitation chances may
continue into the late night hours...but should mostly be out of the
area by Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday and upper trough is forecast to move into Southern California...with some weak
upper ridging over the area in the afternoon as an upper low over the
Great Lakes moves eastward. Moisture remains over the area and afternoon
instability will lead to showers and possibly a few thunderstorms...especially
over and near the mountains highs on Tuesday should be around average.

Wednesday an upper trough will remain along the West Coast with weak ridging
overhead. Low level easterly winds into the southeastern plains is forecast
to bring low level moisture into the area with afternoon dew points in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. A weak shortwave trough coming up from the
SW is forecast to move across the area in the afternoon and evening.
Chances for precipitation will be a little better on Wednesday...especially over the
mountains and southeastern plains. Could even see a couple severe storms over the
far southeastern plains with the increase in low level moisture and cape
values...with shear values forecast to be around 50 kts.

Upper low is forecast to be over northern Baja California California on Thursday with moisture working
its way into the forecast area. Low level moisture and upslope flow will
remain over eastern Colorado on Thursday. Overall precipitation chances should be fairly
high over the mountains and portions of the I-25 corridor.

After Thursday...the models disagree on what happens to that upper low. The
European model (ecmwf) lifts it northeastward across Colorado and into north central Colorado through
the day Friday. The GFS also lifts the low northeastward...but more
slowly and reaching central Colorado by 00z Sat. Either way it results in
fairly widespread precipitation chances in the afternoon and early evening.
We then see some ridging over the area on Saturday...but as a new upper
trough moves into the Great Basin...moisture ahead of that moves into the
area and another round of precipitation is expected.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 343 am MDT sun Apr 19 2015

Mainly VFR conditions expected at cos...pub and als over the next 24
hours. Cos could see brief MVFR conditions through 15z with showers
moving across the Pikes Peak region. Cos and pub to see gusty north
winds 25-35kts through at least 18z with north winds slowly
diminishing there after. Could see showers in the vicinity of als after
18z through 02z...though not enough confidence to put in taf at this time.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...mw
long term...28
aviation...mw

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