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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1128 PM MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 252 PM MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

..record warmth continues...

So far this afternoon...pub has hit 84 degrees...breaking the old
record of 83 in 2011...cos and als have both tied their records of
78 and 70 respectively...also set in 2011. But with an hour more of
heating to go there is still time for these locations to bump up
another degree. Time will tell.

Weather pattern will remain dominated by the upper high to the
south. 700 mb temperatures tomorrow look little changed from those of
today. In fact as the ridge axis shifts eastward...southwest winds
will increase aloft and this could aid mixing a bit. Thus another
day of record to near record warmth is expected. Record highs
tomorrow are a little warmer (pub...87 in 1959. Cos...79 in 1959.
Als...75 in 1959)...but seems that pub and cos could come close or
break records tomorrow. Otherwise forecast will remain dry. Winds
increase across the mountains during the afternoon and could get
breezy in spots. Relative humidity values will be quite low...but
winds don't look strong enough for long enough to warrant any fire
weather highlights at this time. -Kt

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 252 PM MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

..dry and warm weather likely to continue into November...

The extended forecast continues to look pretty uneventful. The warm
weather will continue on Sunday...with temperatures possibly reaching the
lower 80s over the plains by afternoon. Have gone on the lower side
of guidance...which suggests middle 80s...since temperatures aloft do not look
quite high enough to support the warmer MOS values...even with
moderate wrly flow in the lower levels. Could see some marginally
critical fire weather conditions develop over the plains Tuesday afternoon
as relative humidity values near 15 percent and breezy conditions develop.

A trough will begin moving into the northern rockies late Sunday...and
should bring some light quantitative precipitation forecast to the central mts Sun night into Monday
morning. There could be a bit of a break early Monday before we see
another round of showers Monday afternoon as the trough axis crosses
eastern Colorado. The European model (ecmwf) continues to be slightly deeper with this system
and would bring more quantitative precipitation forecast...especially to the I-25 corridor. The NCEP
models are relatively weak and dry. The trend has been for a slightly
weaker system...so will leave borderline mentionable
probability of precipitation...around 10 percent...for The Lowlands. But the trend has
been for a weaker system so not a lot of confidence in any precipitation
for this area. Main impact will be to bring US closer to seasonal
averages for daytime highs on Monday and especially Tuesday...when we
could see temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s over the plains. The
mts could also see some light snow accums...generally an inch or
two... for elevations above 10k feet.

We head into a pattern of northwest flow aloft after the trough quickly
departs on Tuesday. Another weak system will brush the northestern portion
of our area Wednesday night but it looks to be mainly dry...and the main
impact will be to keep cooler air over the area with temperatures around
seasonal avgs for the end of the week. By next weekend...it looks
like the upper ridge will rebuild strongly over The Rockies and we
will once again be stuck in a dry and warm pattern...and it does not
look like this pattern will break down any time soon. Rose

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 1126 PM MDT Friday Oct 24 2014

VFR conditions will continue at all taf sites and across all of
southern Colorado the next 24 hours...along with light diurnal
winds under 15 kts.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...knots
long term...rose
aviation...petersen

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