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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
610 PM MDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

issued at 539 PM MDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Updated to tweak probability of precipitation a bit...removing mentionable probability of precipitation
from kcos. Should see all shower/ts activity die off in a couple
hours. Rest of forecast on track...looks pretty quiet next 24
hours. Rose


Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 249 PM MDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Currently...a weak upper level disturbance is moving across northern
Colorado while a nearly stationary surface boundary stretches from
west to east along the Palmer Divide. Isolated thunderstorms have
developed along the boundary...from eastern Fremont
County...northeast into El Paso County. Weak steering flows will
keep these thunderstorms from moving too much. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the
mountains as well this afternoon and should remain tied to the
terrain. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to lower 90s
across the plains with generally light winds.

Tonight and Thursday...high pressure will move across Colorado
through Thursday evening. This will keep most of the moisture
associated with the remnants of Odile over the Desert Southwest with
the exception of middle to high level clouds. Convection that is
currently ongoing will quickly dissipate this evening once the sun
sets with dry conditions by midnight across southern Colorado.
Overnight lows will fall into the 50s for the plains tonight.

The upper high will be centered overhead on Thursday. Temperatures
will rapidly warm through the morning hours with upper 80s to lower
90s for the eastern plains. Drier air associated with the upper
high should help keep any thunderstorms that develop over the
mountains rather isolated. Most models hold off on convective
development until around 21z with only isolated activity across the
Continental Divide heading into the evening hours. Mozley

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 249 PM MDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

Southern end of the upper trough cuts off over California
Friday...while northern portion pushes eastward into the upper
Midwest. Most model solution move the middle level remnants of Odile
northeastward out of nm into SW Kansas by Friday evening...though
European model (ecmwf)...which has been rather erratic the last few days...keeps
the circulation farther south over eastern nm/West Texas. Still appears
the greatest chance for heavy tropical rains during the day Friday
will be along the nm border in Las Animas and Baca
counties...where rainfall amounts of a half inch to inch appear
possible. Elsewhere Friday afternoon/evening...precipitation chances look
much less ... mainly isolated activity as surface cold front
and Post frontal upslope flow don't arrive until early Sat
morning. Fairly extensive cloud shield Friday should shave a few degf
off of maximum temperatures...especially southern half of the area.

Upper ridge then briefly re-amplifies over The Rockies
Sat/sun...before western U.S. Cut off low pushes slowly eastward
during the early part of next week. Low level flow will become
more east-southeast over the weekend....and with recycled moisture in place
under the high...expect at least isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms and rain
over the mountains and adjacent plains Sat...then slightly better
coverage of storms area-wide on sun as southeast flow deepens. Maximum
temperatures both Sat/sun look seasonably cool...especially eastern
mountains and plains with easterly flow. Upper low lifts east-NE out
of the Great Basin Monday night into Tuesday night...likely producing
another round of fairly widespread thunderstorms and rain most locations Monday
afternoon and evening. Best forcing then shifts east of the area
Tuesday...though some storms could linger over the mountains and along
the Kansas border. Drier conditions all areas then develop Wednesday as
upper low moves into the plains and ridge rebuilds. Maximum temperatures will
stay around seasonal averages through mid-week.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 608 PM MDT Wednesday Sep 17 2014

VFR conditions expected to continue through tomorrow for
all of southeast Colorado. Only isolated showers/ts are expected over the
hyr terrain on Thursday. Rose


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...mozley
long term...petersen

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