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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
527 am MDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 525 am MDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

An upper ridge will remain over the area today and tonight...with
moisture remaining in place as well. Precipitable water values look
similar to yesterday or slightly lower over the far eastern areas. With
the daytime heating...showers and thunderstorms will develop. The best
chances for precipitation will be over and near the hyr terrain...with the forecast
models showing little chance for precipitation over the far southeastern plains. With
the upper ridge being overhead the flow aloft will remain light...5-10
kts. This will lead to slow moving storms today and the potential for
locally heavy rain with some of the stronger storms. High temperatures
today are expected to be 5-10 degrees above average over the southeastern
plains...and around average for the San Luis valley. Much of the
shower and thunderstorm activity will end by late evening.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 525 am MDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

..potentially wet meteorological pattern(with enhanced flash
flooding threat at times) developing from later Friday into
Tuesday night...

Unsettled and potentially wet meteorological pattern(with
flash flooding potential) expected during the longer term with
locally heavy rainfall and associated flash flood threat as well
as temperatures primary issues...especially from later Friday
into Tuesday night.

Latest runs of the both the European model (ecmwf) and GFS are suggesting that
4 day rainfall totals(from later Friday into Tuesday night) over
portions of the eastern mountains/foothills and Interstate 25
corridor will range from 2+ inches(per recent ecmwf) to in excess
of 6 inches(per recent gfs).

Upper ridge centered over southeastern Colorado at 12z Friday
shifts west over Utah by 18z Sunday and then into Nevada by 18z
Tuesday. At the surface...Lee-side troughing over far southeastern
Colorado from Friday into the weekend gives way to an unseasonably
healthy surface high pressure pushing into eastern Colorado by
next week.

Initial very moist north-northeasterly surface surge is projected
to move across the eastern mountains/foothills Friday/Friday night
with reinforcing moist surge anticipated Monday. Forecast model
soundings project that precipitable water values along the eastern
mountains/foothills/I-25 corridor increase from around .75 inches
Thursday afternoon to in excess of 1.00 inches(nearing 1.50 inches
at times) from Friday into Tuesday night.

Storms producing locally heavy rainfall and associated flash
flooding threats will be possible from Friday into Tuesday night
with this projected upcoming meteorological pattern. Weather forecast office Pueblo
will monitor closely and issues highlights/warnings as warranted.
In addition...a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
will also be possible as localized convective available potential energy/lifted indices and bulk shear values
occasional exceed 1500 j/kg...-5c and 30 knots respectively.

Finally...near to above seasonal middle-July temperatures are
anticipated Friday and Saturday with below seasonal temperatures
then projected from Sunday into Wednesday. Warmest maximum
temperatures during the longer term should be noted Friday...while
coolest maximum temperatures should be experienced Tuesday and


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 525 am MDT Thursday Jul 10 2014

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight at kcos...kpub and
kals. There is the potential for thunderstorms in the vicinity of kcos and
kals this afternoon and evening.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...




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