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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
347 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 348 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Currently...the upper ridge remains across the western US...while
intense heating and a good amount of low level moisture thanks to
easterly flow helped storms to develop over the higher terrain by
midday today. A few of the storms so far have been fairly
strong...producing heavy rainfall and abundant hail. Temperatures have
warmed into the 90s to near 100f for the east plains...and 80s for the
high valleys.

Tonight...ongoing convection WI expected to continue through the
evening as storms push to the east-southeast across the i25 corridor and
adjacent plains. Main storm threat will be winds gusting to 40
miles per hour...half inch hail...periods of heavy rain and lightning.
However...a few of the storms have the potential to produce severe
hail an inch in diameter or larger...stronger wind gusts near 60
miles per hour...and periods of torrential rain. This activity is forecast to
diminish by 06z...with slightly cooler temperatures forecast overnight as
compared to last night.

Tomorrow...Thursday looks to be a repeat of today...with a very
similar upper ridge positioning. However...a northerly surge is
forecast to drop south across the Palmer dvd late morning/midday.
This will serve to keep maximum temperatures a couple of degrees cooler...but
will push in more low level moisture and cape responds with nearly 2000
j/kg over the Palmer dvd in the afternoon. Once again diurnal Montana
convection is forecast...but due to the timing of the front...as the
storms move off the mts to the southeast they will start to interact with
the juicier air and greater shear...and there is a significant
potential for some severe storms tomorrow. Look for maximum temperatures about
5 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow for the plains...while the western
areas will warm to seasonal levels. Moore

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 348 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Active longer term meteorological pattern anticipated with
primary concerns being temperatures...probability of precipitation and determining
where highest potential for locally heavy rainfall and stronger
storms will be at times.

Recent longer term computer simulations...forecast model
soundings and pv analysis indicate that upper high remains
centered over the southwestern Utah/Nevada region from Thursday
night into Saturday with upper high then shifting into New Mexico
from Sunday into early next week.

At the surface...next stronger northerly to northeasterly surface
surge is projected to move across eastern portions of the forecast
district Sunday night. Computer models/soundings suggest that
moist atmospheric profile will be in place over many locations
during the majority of the longer term with the deepest
atmospheric moisture intrusions projected from later Thursday into
Friday night and then again from Sunday night into next Wednesday.

In addition...somewhat favorable(stronger) shear and cape values
are anticipated Thursday night...Friday afternoon into Saturday
and especially from Monday into Monday evening. Also...elevated
shears/convective available potential energy are also possible again next Tuesday and Wednesday.

For sensible weather(outside of Thursday night and then again from
Monday into Monday night...where numerous storms will be
possible)...anticipate that isolated to scattered primarily
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms...some quite
strong with locally heavy rain potential...will be noted over many
sections of the County warning forecast area.

At this time...it appears that the highest potential for more
widespread locally rain will be noted from later Thursday into
Friday evening and especially from Monday into Monday night. In
addition...it appears that the highest potential for strong to
possibly severe thunderstorms at times may be noted from Friday
into Friday night and then again by next Monday...Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Regarding temperatures...minimum temperatures are expected to run
above early July climatological averages over many locations
during the longer term...while near to below climatological
maximum temperatures are anticipated Friday and then again from
Monday into Tuesday...with warmest maximum readings expected
during the 4th of July weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 348 PM MDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015

Convection will continue through the evening...then diminish from
north to south by 06z. For much of the area...including the three
main taf sites of kcos...kpub and kals...expect MVFR to intermittent
IFR conditions from until 06z with associated showers and
thunderstorms...and especially under stronger storms. After
06z and until 18z Thursday...VFR conditions will dominate.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...

None.

&&

$$

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