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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1048 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2014

issued at 1042 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2014

Reinitialzed front end grids with latest observations.

Update issued at 550 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2014

Reinitialzed front end grids with latest observations.


Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 322 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2014

..strong jet to bring snow to the mountains...

A strong jet stream will begin to affect the region tomorrow. This
jet...combined with plenty of Pacific moisture will bring heavy snow
to the Central Mountain region.


A weak wave will move across the region this evening. This wave will
bring an enhanced period of snow to the central mountains mainly
this evening. A break in the snow will occur later tonight before
the snow begins to pick up in intensity once again towards sunrise.

Over the remainder of the will be dry. Higher clouds
will thicken by middle evening. Temperatures will be cold once again
with mainly 20s plains and teens most other Mountain/Valley regions.


Snow will increase both in intensity and coverage over the greater
Central Mountain region...with winds increasing as the day
progresses. A Winter Storm Warning GOES into affect for this region
by late morning. A Snow Advisory has been issued for the Lower
Valley areas of Lake County and Middle Mountain regions of Chaffee County.

Elsewhere...a mild day is in store for the plains with highs mainly
in the 50s. We should see the winds pick up a bit on the
plains...with west winds of 10-15 miles per hour...with higher gusts in the

Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 322 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday...models are in very good agreement on
moving an upper low pressure system down out of Canada and across
the Dakotas Sunday night. The upper jet driving south on the back
side of this system is forecast to have a 150 knots core and will drop
down across the Pacific northwest Sunday night...then across the Great Basin
and nosing into northwest Colorado on Monday. Models indicate that the
upper low will linger over the Midwest through Monday and into
Tuesday...with strong north-northwest flow winds affecting the state into
Tuesday morning. This flow will hit the central mts the hardest with
significant accumulations and blowing snow...hence the highlights.
However...the remainder of the mts as well as the immediately
adjacent plains should see some accumulating snow...with snow
lingering into Tuesday morning over the southern foothills and S
sangres. As for temperatures...the surface cold front is expected to drop down
the east plains Monday morning so maximum temperature on Monday will depend entirely
on frontal passage. At this time maximum temperatures are forecast to be in the
40s...but may well need to be adjusted downward. Cold air will be
firmly in place for Tuesday...with maximum temperatures only expected to warm into
the 30s to right around 40f. Precipitation should taper off for all areas
save for the central mts by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Wednesday looks to be a transitional day as northerly flow in
the morning becomes more westerly through the afternoon as the
region awaits another low pressure system. Temperatures are expected to
rebound to near 50f for the plains...and into the upper 30s to middle
40s for the high valleys.

Thursday through Saturday...the ec and GFS models are hinting at
another system approaching Colorado for Christmas...though the
latest model runs are once again pushing the brunt of the system to
the north. For now...forecast grids have snow beginning along the
Continental Divide very early Thursday morning...with the plains remaining somewhat
mild in the middle 40s to around 50f. A cold front Thursday night will usher
in another blast of cold air...with maximum temperatures both Friday and Sat
remaining in the upper 20s to upper 30s. At this time...snowfall
seems to be restricted to the mts. Moore


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1042 PM MST Sat Dec 20 2014

VFR conditions anticipated next 24 hours at kcos...kpub and kals
taf sites. West winds will begin to pick up tomorrow as a Pacific
storm moves towards the region.

Snow will occur in the mountains...especially the central
mountains...through the period...with heavy...wind-driven snow
developing along the Continental Divide Sunday and continuing
through Sunday night.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 am Sunday to 11 PM MST Monday
for coz059-061.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 am Sunday to 11 PM MST Monday for



short term...hodanish
long term...Moore

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