Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1133 PM MDT Thursday may 21 2015
Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 252 PM MDT Thursday may 21 2015
..quick shot of rain and snow tonight...
Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicating
moderate to strong south to southwest flow aloft across the region
with broad upper trough digging across the Southern California coast
and embedded short waves lifting out across the southern rockies and
the Desert Southwest. Regional radars indicating isolated to
scattered showers across the central and northern mts with best
coverage of storms across southwestern and northeastern New Mexico
at this time. Satellite imagery indicating middle and high level clouds
streaming across the area...which has helped to limit mixing and has
kept low clouds and cool temperatures in the 40s and 50s across
eastern Colorado through the early afternoon.
Latest models in agreement of two bullseye of precipitation across
the area tonight...the first being the far southeast plains as northeastern
New Mexico wave continues to translate north and east into the
Central High plains. The other being across the SW and central mts
late this afternoon...with precipitation spreading north and east
across the San Luis and upper Arkansas River valleys and into the
peaks peak region tonight...as the desert SW wave continues to
translate north and east across western Colorado overnight. Models
are also moving the system fairly quickly across the area with quantitative precipitation forecast
totals down from previous runs...generally in the a quarter to half
inch range across the area. With that said...will not issue a Flash
Flood Watch for tonight...though can not rule out localized flooding
issues with the already saturated soils. The higher Montana peaks will
likely see a quick shot of moderate snowfall...and have kept current
Winter Weather Advisory for the central mts and added the peaks peak
massif...with 4 to 8 inches possible through early Friday morning.
Friday...subsident southwest flow across the area tomorrow morning
should lead to diminishing showers and possible breaks in the clouds
through the early afternoon...especially across southeast plains.
The main Southern California trough starts to lift out across the
Great Basin Friday afternoon...leading to more showers and storms
developing across the higher terrain in the afternoon...with the
best coverage along the Continental Divide. Increasing SW aloft aloft leads to
a lhx low developing across the eastern plains...with possible
dryline and a few stronger storms across the far southeast plains late in
the afternoon. With breaks in the clouds and breezy south to
southwest winds across the plains...should see highs warming into
the 60s and 70s across the lower elevations tomorrow...with 50s and
60s across the higher terrain.
Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 252 PM MDT Thursday may 21 2015
... Not quite as wet...
A couple of low pressure systems will impact our weather
through the Holiday weekend and into next week...the first
sun-Sun night and a second on Tuesday. These are relatively weak
systems but given the antecedent wet conditions and saturated
soils...could add to the flooding concerns for the area.
First low approaches the 4 corners region on Saturday.
Most of the I-25 corridor and plains will be dry-slotted by
this system...so it looks like most of the precipitation/quantitative precipitation forecast will fall
over the central mts...with only scattered showers for the rest of
the area. Should hopefully see 70s for the plains as a high temperature.
There is a slight concern for severe weather...but most recent guidance
has the strongest severe threat along and east of the dryline...which
will be near the Colorado-Kansas border in the afternoon. The area to watch
will be mainly east of Highway 287 in eastern Kiowa and Prowers counties.
A secondary threat will be north of the surface low over the
plains...which guidance suggest will be over northestern Colorado.
On Sunday...the upper low will move into northestern Colorado and we could
see some wrap around moisture late in the day into Sun night.
The Pikes Peak region and areas north of hgwy 50 will see the best
chance of precipitation. Highs will be a few degrees cooler...especially
for the northern zones.
After a brief short wave ridge on Monday...the second system will
move into the central mts and then on through the eastern Colorado plains
on Tuesday. This will bring another surge of cooler air to the
area and an increasing threat of showers...again mainly for the
mts and more northern zones in our County Warning Area.
After this system passes to our NE...we will see increasing southwesterly
flow develop middle-week ahead of another Pacific trough. This
should dry US out and warm US up a bit...could even see temperatures
approach 80 degrees at kpub for the first time since the beginning
of the month. In fact...mex guidance has a high of 87 for kpub
next Thursday...but given the persistent cool pattern and plenty
of moisture...will stick with ensemble temperatures which are about
10 degrees cooler than the MOS numbers. Rose
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1125 PM MDT Thursday may 21 2015
Upper low gradually moving across Southern California and the desert SW
will keep moisture plume in place coupled with low level upslope flow.
Look for IFR to LIFR conditions in place for kcos overnight through
18z. Conditions at kpub will continue to be MVFR to IFR overnight
through 18z. After 18z...W-SW flow is forecast to help dry out the
I-25 corridor temporarily...with breaks in the overcast. Storm
chances return in the evening due to the heating.
Mainly VFR conditions expected at als through the next 24 hours with
breezy south to southwest winds.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 am MDT Friday for coz058-060-082.