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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1142 PM MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Update...
issued at 1141 PM MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Adjusted short term precipitation and sky cover per radar and
satellite. Also...reinitialized front end grids with latest
observations.

Update issued at 946 PM MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Adjusted short term precipitation and sky cover per radar and
satellite. Also...reinitialized front end grids with latest
observations.

Update issued at 552 PM MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Reinitialized front end grids with latest observations. No other
changes at this time.

&&

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 236 PM MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Currently...widespread middle and high level clouds across the forecast
area this afternoon...along with isolated shower and storm
activity that has been mainly tied to the higher terrain so far.
This has meshed well with the SW moist flow aloft...as well as the
upper disturbance that the models had shown would be passing over
Colorado today. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s for the high
valleys...and into the middle 80s to 90s for the east plains.

Tonight and tomorrow...an upper low pressure system over the Pacific northwest is
forecast to strengthen and drop south across Washington and or over the next
24 hours...while the ridge of hi pressure over the central US persists.
This will keep the state under moist SW flow aloft...with monsoon
moisture helping to feed afternoon and evening convection. The
disturbance cross the state today is expected to continue north
and exit the area late tonight...so shower and storm activity is
forecast to diminish greatly after 8 PM and drop off completely
right around midnight. The plume remains in place for
tomorrow...and models indicate that another...though
weaker...upper shortwave will be available to help spark shower
and storm activity once again. Convection will likely develop over
the higher terrain by late morning...then spread across the
adjacent areas through the afternoon. A mild night is on tap for
much of the area...with min temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s for the
high valleys...and middle 50s to lower 60s for the plains. High temperatures
tomorrow will be comparable to those experienced today...with middle
80s to middle 90s for the plains...and 70s for the high valleys.
Moore

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 236 PM MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Friday evening...

A rather strong middle level trough will be over the Pacific
northwest. This trough will bring up a band of moisture from the
southwest...bringing a threat of evening storms to mainly the
mountainous areas. Some of this rain could be on the heavy
side...but it should be steadily moving to the northeast. Most of
this precipitation should end by midnight...although lingering showers
will be possible across the Continental Divide into early Saturday morning.

Saturday...

Middle level trough will be moving across Nevada/Idaho during the day.
Modest southwest flow will be over the state and monsoon moisture
will continue to streak across the region...with precipitation mainly
occurring along the Continental Divide region. With stronger flow over the
area...storms will be moving at a pretty good clip to the
northeast.

Any flood threat Friday night into Saturday night should be minimal
given the rather quick storm motion...but if storms were to
train...then a flash flood threat will be possible.

Sunday...

Pacific cool front/boundary will move across the region during the
daytime...with drier air advecting over the forecast area. I expect
very little precipitation will occur on this day...with only isolated thunderstorms and rain
over the higher mountains very little change in maximum temperatures are expected
between Saturday and Sunday.

Labor Day...

Modest rather dry west to southwest flow will be over the region.
Brunt of monsoon moisture should be shunted to our south. Overall expect
dry conditions with only isolated thunderstorms and rain over the Continental Divide. Maximum temperatures may
be a 2-3f cooler than on Sunday.

Tuesday...

A trough develops over the southwest Continental U.S. And this will allow
some of the monsoon moisture to creep back north. Probability of precipitation this day will
continue to be isolated...but all areas will have a slight chance of
a storm on this day. Maximum temperatures Tuesday will be similar to mondays
maximum temperatures.

Wednesday into Thursday...

Cooler weather is forecast to move into the region as a weak
boundary slips down the plains. Most precipitation should remain to our
south...although a few showers may occur along the Colorado/nm border
region.

Looking a bit farther out...

Both GFS and ec guidance bring a pretty good cool front into the
region for next weekend. The 700 mb zero degree isotherm is
forecast to move into...or get very close to....Colorado by
Saturday. \/Hodanish

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1127 PM MDT Thursday Sep 3 2015

Main concerns for the next 24 hours continue to be the
chance of ts at or near the taf sites Friday afternoon and evening.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to move up from the south
on Friday. Most of the storm activity should remain over the
mts but a few showers or storms could move out over the
lower elevations. The probability of precipitation will be highest at kals
Friday evening...and showers could persist over the San Luis valley
through Friday night. Ceilings and visible should remain VFR at all sites
unless a stronger cell impacts the terminal area...and any impact
should be relatively brief. Rose



&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Update...lw
short term...Moore
long term...hodanish
aviation...rose

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