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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
253 PM MDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 251 PM MDT Tuesday may 26 2015

..maybe eighty tomorrow...
..Severe threat near the Kansas border... advertised...lower to middle 70s across the eastern plains
this afternoon. Will continue to see scattered storms develop through the
rest of the afternoon...especially along the higher terrain such as
the Raton Mesa and Palmer dvd. Second wave of convection should
develop around 00z and move off in a broken line this
evening...reaching the Kansas border by 06z or so. Could see some
hail with these storms along with brief heavy rainfall. There may
be some lingering precipitation near the Kansas border overnight...but otherwise
there should be some partial clearing through Wednesday morning.

Warming trend continues tomorrow...with 700 mb temperatures getting close to 10
degrees over southeast Colorado by Wednesday afternoon. However...temperatures today a good
example of how highs are not reaching MOS even though
MOS and model guidance are in lower 80s for the plains
tomorrow...expect we will fall short once again. But a few spots over
the southeastern plains should get to 80 or better by middle afternoon.

Other challenge tomorrow will be potential for severe weather. Storm Prediction Center dy 2 has
the slight risk right along our Kansas border...which looks appropriate
given lower 50 dews over the eastern counties...and strengthening bulk
shear. Highest threat will be over Kiowa...Prowers and Baca counties
in the late afternoon and early evening. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats. Rose

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 251 PM MDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Wednesday evening...surface dew points are forecast to be in the 50s to lower
60s over the far southeastern plains...which results in cape values of
between 2000 and 3000 j/kg...but shear values are not very
significant...being around 25 kts. There could be a couple severe
storms in the evening near the eastern border with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threats. Later Wednesday night an upper
trough will lie from extreme northwestern Wyoming through Utah and into Arizona. Precipitation over the
forecast area should mostly end by midnight...but some showers
should linger into the late night hours along the eastern border.

On Thursday a piece of energy from the western trough is expected to move
across Colorado...with showers and thunderstorms firing over the mountains and high
valleys by midday and then spreading eastward across the plains as the
disturbance move eastward. The NAM is forecasting cape values in
excess of 2000 j/kg in the afternoon over the far southeastern plains...but
shear values are not that impressive. However...will probably see a
couple or a few strong to severe storms over the far southeastern plains in
the late afternoon and evening hours.

The upper trough then begins moving across the area Thursday night with most of
the area drying out overnight. A surface front moves through the area early
Friday and for the afternoon precipitation chances increase across the area as low
to middle level upslope flow develops. In the evening hours...
widespread precipitation is expected over the eastern mountains and plains...then
continuing into Sat morning. The GFS shows precipitation amounts of
generally a half inch or more over the plains in the evening...with
another couple or a few tenths in the late night hours.

Sat night an upper ridge begins building over the Great Basin and
slides east over Colorado on Sunday...bringing drier weather but still a chance
for some diurnally driven precipitation over and near the high terrain. The upper
ridge will be moving east on Monday as a new trough moves into the western
state. Will probably mostly see hyr terrain precipitation on Monday. Then on Tuesday the
new upper trough is forecast to still be to our west...and the European model (ecmwf)
shows moisture bring drawn northward into eastern Colorado during the
day...bringing chances for precipitation. However...the GFS has more
westerly to southwesterly flow that does not bring up that moisture. Hard to say
at this time how things will actually turn out a week from now.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 251 PM MDT Tuesday may 26 2015

Scattered storms will continue to develop this afternoon.
Storms will again pick up in coverage around 00z over the eastern
mts...then spread eastward over the plains this evening. Should see
conditions clear over the kcos and kpub terminals by 03-05z if not
earlier. VFR will continue through Wednesday...with another round of
showers and storms expected Wednesday afternoon. Storms will likely be a
bit stronger tomorrow with higher winds and the potential for some
hail. Kals will see lesser chances of ts today and tomorrow. Rose


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...rose
long term...28

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