Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1120 am MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
issued at 754 am MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
Updated to end the frost advisory for this morning over the San
Luis valley. Temperatures have bottomed out in the upper 20s to
lower 30s over the valley and should begin warming over the next
hour. No other changes at this time.
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 351 am MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
Currently...generally quiet conditions have spread across southern
Colorado early this morning with a few middle to high clouds.
Temperatures have fallen into the 40s to 50s across the plains while
the San Luis valley has seen lower to middle 30s. Radar indicates a
few showers moving into western Colorado...which will move into the
central mountains later this morning.
Today...there is still some model discrepancies on how far south an
upper level trough that is forecast to move across the area will
dig. The NAM...along with most high-res model solutions prefer a
northerly track with the trough base moving across central Colorado.
The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are further south...with the European model (ecmwf) taking the
trough base across northern New Mexico. Given the more northern
trend of the high-res models...followed this consensus for the
The upper trough will strengthen and move southeast across Utah and
western Colorado through this afternoon. Expect shower coverage to
increase this morning along the Continental Divide and spread
eastward into the eastern mountains and Palmer Divide through this
afternoon. There will likely be enough instability over the
mountains for an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. In
addition...snow levels will likely begin falling...with the peaks
seeing minor accumulations this afternoon.
Models begin to spread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
into the northern I-25 corridor by late this afternoon.
Temperatures will be pleasant across the region with 60s to lower
70s for highs.
Tonight...the upper trough is forecast to strengthen as it moves
across Colorado overnight tonight. A strong cold front will drop
south across the plains by 03z to 06z. Gusty north winds are
expected behind the front...with gusts in excess of 30 kts expected
along the Kansas border. Models in good agreement with a decent
band of precipitation moving across areas generally north of Highway
50 through the evening...and shifting east into Kansas through
Thursday morning. It should be noted that if the further south
solutions of the European model (ecmwf) or GFS verify...that more widespread shower
activity will be likely across all of the southern Colorado plains.
Over the mountains...snow levels will fall to around 9-10 kft. Snow
totals around 2 to 5 inches are possible along west facing slopes of
the central mountains...and also on top of Pikes Peak...with locally
higher amounts possible. Models are also hinting that there could
be some rain mixed with snow along the Palmer Divide late
tonight...however no snow accumulations are expected there.
Overnight lows will fall into the 40s for most of the eastern
plains...while the San Luis valley will once again fall into the
lower 30s...with frost possible. Another area that may see patchy
frost by Thursday morning will be northern El Paso County...and
precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.
Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 351 am MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
..cooler than average through Saturday morning then transitioning
back to warmer than average...
Thursday morning...an early Fall storm system will be in the process
of exiting the region...with sunny but cool conditions expected all
areas by afternoon. Dry Fall weather will then reside over Colorado
for the next several days.
Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below average over southern
Colorado Thursday...with lows Thursday night also about 5-10 degrees
below average. Min temperatures by Friday morning will be widespread below
freezing in the high country...with mostly 30s across the plains.
This could be the night of the hard...killing freeze for the High
Mountain valleys...where lows dropping into the middle 20s could put a
damper on the growing season for this year. For the plains...don't
think it will be the widespread killing freeze...but could be a
light freeze or frost in some areas...especially over the immediate
Pikes Peak region...including much of El Paso County.
On Friday...more cool stuff for the plains. Temperatures will migrate back
up close to average over the mountains and high valleys.
However...the plains will hold onto to one more cool day with highs
again about 5-10 degrees below average over most of the area. Lows
Friday night will again be cooler than average over the area but not
by as much as Thursday night. Min temperatures Saturday morning look to
range from the upper 20s to middle 30s in the high country to the upper
30s and lower 40s across the plains.
Starting Saturday afternoon and continuing into next week...a
warming trend will spread over Colorado as upper high pressure
builds in over The Rockies. Temperatures will migrate back above
average again with no precipitation expected through the middle of
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1120 am MDT Wednesday Oct 1 2014
A broad upper trough will continue to move across the state this
afternoon and evening...with scattered to numerous showers and a
few thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain this afternoon
which will spread east across the adjacent plains through the
evening and out across the far southeast plains through the
overnight hours. Mainly VFR conditions expected at terminals with
brief mvrf conditions in occasional showers through 00z for als
and after 21z though 06z for cos and pub. An associated cold front
will bring gusty northerly winds to 30kts to cos and pub after 00z
which will persist through the evening.
frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am MDT Thursday for coz069>071.