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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1031 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 239 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Currently...weak energy in broad northwest flow aloft continues to
bring middle and high level clouds to the area. Otherwise mild and dry
conditions prevail across southern Colorado this afternoon. Winds
are generally light and temperatures are in the upper 50s to lower
70s across the lower elevations.

Tonight and Friday...the upper pattern will remain persistent with
broad northwest flow aloft. Weak energy embedded in the flow will
bring periods of middle to high level cloud cover along with continued
dry weather. A cold front over northern Colorado will drop south
across the plains by this evening and turn flow southeasterly by
Friday morning. This will allow for slightly cooler afternoon
temperatures across the region for Friday...with highs in the 50s
and 60s.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 239 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

Cooler air remains briefly in place over the eastern plains Friday
night into Saturday morning...then retreats eastward in the
afternoon as surface high moves into the Great Lakes and Lee
surface trough returns to the High Plains. Could see some low
clouds near the Kansas border Sat morning as warm advection develops
above retreating cold air mass...then warmer/drier air spreads
eastward across the area Sat afternoon with temperatures jumping back to
well above normal values...especially along the i25 corridor.
Upper wave then pushes a new cold front through the region Sat
night...leading to cooler maximum temperatures most locations during the day
sun. Broad upper trough swings through the area late sun into Sun
night...bringing the threat of some snow showers to mainly the
central mountains from sun evening into Monday afternoon. Could see
some light accums over the higher peaks of the Sawatch Range...with
just brief showers/flurries elsewhere. Eastern mountains and
plains could see a sprinkle/flurry/virga Sun night as trough comes
across...though chances look too low to include in the forecast
for now.

Western upper ridge then rebuilds beginning Monday...with
warm and generally dry conditions through midweek. Fairly strong
trough moves onshore over the western U.S. Late week..with GFS
about a day faster than the European model (ecmwf) in bringing system through The
Rockies. Will begin to ramp up probability of precipitation over the higher terrain next
Thursday as trough approaches...though main impact of the system looks
limited to the higher elevations along the Continental Divide at
this point.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1026 PM MST Thursday Feb 11 2016

The area will remain VFR with generally light winds through
the next 24-30 hours. Winds aloft will increase on Saturday
in advance of a cold front that will move through eastern Colorado on
Sunday. Rose


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...petersen
long term...mozley

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