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Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
402 am MDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 350 am MDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Cold front well south of the area this morning with weak surface
high pressure building across the state. Drier air mass will cover
most of southern Colorado today and tonight...eliminating the chance
of convection over the mountains and valleys. Eastern plains will
see some weak low level moisture return by late afternoon...and with
some weak warm advective lift above the frontal boundary to our
south...could see one or two storms near the Kansas border early this
evening. Maximum temperatures today right at seasonal normals...with lows
tonight falling off into the 30s and 40s over the mountains and high
valleys.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 350 am MDT Monday Sep 1 2014

..hot Wednesday...Then moisture forecast to increase by late in the
week....

Tuesday through Thursday...

Generally dry and hot (especially wed) during these few days.
Temperatures Tuesday and Thursday will be in the u80s most plains...with temperatures
well into the 90s on Wednesday (a 100f reading is not out of the
question). With limited moisture over the region it will generally
be dry. The best chance of any precipitation will be down across far southeast
Colorado as a surface trough will develop over this region Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday into early next week...

By late in the week and into the weekend...moisture is forecast to
increase over the region by quite a bit. This forecast I believe will
be dependent on how active the subtropics will get as the moisture
is forecast to come up via a couple of tropical cyclones that are forecast
to develop in the Golf of Mexico and far east Pacific. If these
systems develop as per guidance suggest...then we will likely see
this increase in precipitation over the region. Both GFS and ec show this
scenario and HPC quantitative precipitation forecast extended forecasts show it getting wetter over
the area. Based on this...have begun to increase probability of precipitation a bit for
later in the week and cooled maximum temperatures downward. It is too early
to know how wet it will actually get...but this pattern will need
to be watched from a flash flood perspective.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Tuesday morning)
issued at 350 am MDT Monday Sep 1 2014

VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight with any thunderstorms and rain
limited to areas near the Kansas border this evening.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...petersen
long term...hodanish
aviation...petersen

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