Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
614 am MDT Friday may 22 2015

issued at 604 am MDT Friday may 22 2015

Updated to expire the Winter Weather Advisory. An
additional inch or two of snow is possible through this
afternoon for the high country. No other updates at this time.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 354 am MDT Friday may 22 2015

Currently...a quick moving upper level disturbance is lifting north
across the eastern plains. Widespread light rain continue across
much of the region. Gauges have reported between 0.25 and 0.5
inches have fallen over most of the area...and rain rates have been
low enough to keep flash flooding at Bay. Temperatures are running
in the 40s across the region under light southeast winds.

Today...the upper level disturbance will continue to lift north and
into Wyoming by this afternoon. Models in agreement with
precipitation coming to an end for most areas by 9 am...generally
from south to north. An additional up to quarter inch of rainfall
is possible...especially over the eastern mountains and north of
Highway 50. Dry air will work northward around the main storm system
which will move into Arizona by this afternoon. This should allow
for some clearing across portions of the eastern plains and help the
area warm into the 60s and lower 70s. Models in good agreement with
showers and isolated thunderstorms developing over the mountains
again this afternoon...and spreading into the Palmer Divide and I-25
corridor heading into this evening. In addition...a dryline is
forecast to develop out near the Kansas border this afternoon. High-
res models vary in the initiation of convection...but thunderstorms
are possible over Kiowa...Prowers and bent counties this afternoon
as the dryline moves east. The main threats will be lightning and
dime size hail...and locally heavy rainfall could produce flash
flooding. Limited instability should keep thunderstorms below
severe levels. We will also continue to monitor for flash flooding
and mainstem river/stream flooding. Any rain falling on already
saturated grounds will likely lead to flooding issues.

Tonight...the upper level low is forecast to move into southern Utah
by Saturday morning. Showers will likely continue across the
mountain areas through the overnight period. Locations over the
plains will see showers and thunderstorms dissipate after sunset and
the lose of daytime instability. The exception will be over the far
southeast plains. Models all in agreement with a complex of showers
and thunderstorms lifting northeast out of New Mexico and into Baca
County late tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible over this
area and flash flooding remains a threat.

As for mountain snowfall...locations over the central mountains
above 9 kft will likely see an additional 2 to 4 inches through late
this morning...while the rest of the higher peaks see an inch or
two. Mozley

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 354 am MDT Friday may 22 2015 pattern continues...

Next wave in series will not waste any time getting here with
impacts from it over southern Colorado already on Saturday. Could
be a dry line setup over the far eastern plains...possibly arching
back toward northeastern El Paso County. Storm Prediction Center currently has this
area under the slight risk category Saturday. rain
and snow above 10000 feet will be moving into the Continental

Saturday night through Sunday night...looks like this system will
take a track across northern Colorado...but still impacting
southern Colorado...mainly the mountains and Pikes Peak region
with rain and snow above 10000 feet. Spotty showers and storms
elsewhere during the period.

Monday and Monday wave moves through...impacting the
western mountains in the morning...reaching to the eastern
mountains...Pikes Peak region...and I-25 corridor areas in the
afternoon...and then on east across the plains during the night. Rain
with snow above 10000 feet. Most of the precipitation with this one
confined to the I-25 corridor westward...with spotty activity

Bit of a break in the weather for many areas Tuesday and Wednesday
with shortwave ridging over Colorado. Still some scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms mainly over the mountains
driven by diurnal heating over the terrain.

By Thursday...could see things break down again. Current model
projections have more subtropical moisture/energy working up from
the south ahead of a new low pressure area migrating inland from
the Pacific...across Baja California and Arizona. Too early for details or
high confidence...but could be beginning of next round of
widespread...heavy rainfall across region. Will continue to


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 354 am MDT Friday may 22 2015

Kals...generally MVFR this morning due to ceilings around 3 kft and
light rainfall in the area. Conditions are forecast to return to
VFR by 19z with middle and high clouds across the area. Showers are
forecast to develop over the mountains this afternoon and move out
over the San Luis valley...and could move over the terminal after

Kcos...IFR conditions will prevail this morning with widespread
light rainfall causing reduce visible and ceilings to around 500 feet.
Expect improving conditions by middle morning as the precipitation
field lifts north away from the area. VFR conditions are forecast
for this afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop
over the mountains...and will likely move near the terminal after
23z and through the evening.

Kpub...MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail this morning with
intermittent light rain and low ceilings. Expect improving conditions
through middle morning with VFR conditions this afternoon. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the mountains
this afternoon and move east near the terminal through this evening.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...mozley
long term...lw

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations