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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1100 PM MDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 252 PM MDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Relatively tranquil meteorological conditions anticipated over the
forecast district with primary meteorological challenges being
temperatures and localized gusty winds/elevated fire weather issues.

County warning forecast area currently experiencing varying degrees of primarily higher
level cloudiness...some primarily localized higher terrain gusty
winds and near climatological average temperatures.

Latest real-time data...forecast model soundings and computer
simulations indicate that dry and mild conditions will continue
across southern Colorado through Friday as dry upper zonal to
southwesterly flow develops over the region.

Elevated fire weather concerns will once again be possible over
portions of the San Luis valley as well as over eastern portions of
the forecast district...however at this time confidence is not high
enough to issue fire weather highlights. Weather forecast office Pueblo will monitor
closely.

Minimum temperatures running near late April seasonal averages are
anticipated tonight while above late April seasonal average maximum
temperatures should return to the forecast district by Friday
afternoon.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 252 PM MDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

Friday night a strong upper trough will be moving eastward from the West
Coast...and an upper low center is expected to move into northwest Arizona
by 18z Sat. The upper trough will continue moving eastward through the day
and is forecast to reach to 4 corners by 00z sun and the track
eastward along the southern Colorado border Sat night.

Ahead of this system...strong S to SW winds are expected over the
area on Sat over most of the area. The southeastern plains are expected to
be quite dry...with relative humidity values falling below 15 percent...resulting
in critical fire weather conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch
from 18z Sat to 02z sun. For all of the southeastern Colorado plains. The San
Luis valley may have a period in the early afternoon when critical
conditions will be reached...but by late afternoon precipitation is expected to
spread across the area...raising the dew points.

As the upper trough moves toward the area on Sat...precipitation is expected to
develop by late morning along the Continental Divide...and then increase in the
afternoon hours...and then spread across the San Luis valley and over
the eastern mts. Temperatures still look relatively warm during the day
Sat...so snow accumulations will mainly be over the hyr peaks. Sat
night...precipitation continues over the mts as the upper low tracks eastward
along the southern Colorado border...while the southeastern plains remain dry until
early Sun morning. Colder air will be spreading across the forecast
area Sat night with snow levels probably lowering to around or a
little lower than 6000 feet. Then when the upper low gets closer to the
eastern Colorado border early sun...precipitation wraps around the backside of the low
over the I-25 corridor. Also on the backside of the low...strong northwest
to north winds are expected and temperatures will be cold enough over the Palmer
dvd that there will be snow. The combination of the wind and snow
could lead to difficult driving conditions over northern El Paso County
and the Palmer dvd Sun morning. On Sunday the upper low then is
forecast to begin tracking northeastward and precipitation spreads eastward
across much of the southeastern plains. There are some differences in the
models...by 00z Monday the NAM has the upper low center SW of
khlc...while the GFS and European model (ecmwf) take it farther north into western NE.
As a result...the GFS and ec have drier conditions over the southeastern Colorado
plains than the NAM. Precipitation will be decreasing over western areas and the
mountains during the day sun. There is the potential for some
significant snow accumulations along the Continental Divide from Sat afternoon
through about midday sun...so for now will issue a winter weather watch for
the hyr elevations of the Continental Divide.

Unsettled weather is then expected to continue into middle or late week as
the upper low sits over the plains states. This will lead to breezy and
cool northerly flow over the forecast area...with the potential for
occasional disturbances moving across the area and bringing some precipitation.

&&

Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 1100 PM MDT Thursday Apr 24 2014

VFR conditions expected at als...cos and pub through the next 24
hours. Generally light diurnal drainage winds expected at taf
sites overnight...with breezy south to southwest winds of 15-25kts
developing after 18z.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for coz222-226>237.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning for coz058-060-061-066-068.

&&

$$

Short term...77
long term...28
aviation...mw