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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
310 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 310 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

..disturbance approaching...

An upper level disturbance is moving across Nevada into western
Colorado this afternoon. This disturbance will race quickly across
Colorado tonight and Wednesday...producing scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms...mainly along the Continental Divide. The Pikes
Peak region could also see a little activity with this system...as
well as the plains out along the Kansas border. Precipitation
elsewhere is looking pretty spotty and brief...but not totally out
of the question.

The precipitation chances will likely be greatest this evening as the main
upper trough and jet maxima moves through...along with peak
instability. Then...likely a lull in activity overnight into early
Wednesday with a resurgence of activity again Wednesday afternoon as
instability increases. There is an outside chance that convection
will get more organized as it near the Kansas border tomorrow
afternoon. But confidence in this is not high as most model
iterations don't organize the convection until it gets into Kansas.

When all is said and done...the central mountains should do the best
with this storm. They have the best dynamics...the best
orographics...the best instability...and the greatest length of time
under the gun. Snow levels will probably come down to 9000 or 10000
feet. Local accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible above
these levels.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 310 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

..unseasonably warm weather into the upcoming weekend...

Wednesday night-Thursday night...moderate west to northwest flow
aloft across the region Wednesday night weakens through the day
Thursday...as a broad upper trough translating across the northern
rockies and High Plains continues to move east with upper level
ridging building across the Desert Southwest. There could be a few
showers across the higher terrain and far southeast plains through the
early evening hours with clearing skies for the late evening and
overnight night with expected subsident downslope flow. Relatively
warm air aloft prognosticated across the area...and with a generally
light thermally and terrain driven wind regime...should see
temperatures at or above seasonal averages with lows generally in
the 30s and 40s and highs across the lower elevations in the 60s
and 70s...mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain and 30s and
40s at the peaks.

Friday-Saturday...dry and unseasonably warm weather remains in the
offing as upper level ridging across the Desert Southwest builds
across the southern and central rockies. Latest models continue to
suggest near record warmth possible...with generally light westerly
downslope flow and 700 mb temperatures prognosticated between 10c and 14c yielding
highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s across the plains...mainly 60s
across the higher terrain and 40s at the peaks. Records for Friday
October 24th are 78f at cos...83f at pub and 70f at als...all set in
2011. Records for Saturday October 25th are 79f at cos...87f at pub
and 75f at als...all set in 1959.

Sunday-Tuesday...increasing southwest flow aloft prognosticated across the
area Sunday as another upper trough looks to move across the Great
Basin. This will allow for increasing probability of precipitation across the higher
terrain...especially along the Continental Divide...and slightly cooler
temperatures for Sunday...along with increasing fire weather
concerns across the eastern plains with breezy south to southwest
winds. There remains some run to run issues with the strength and
movement of this system...with the 12z runs of the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
remaining progressive with a broad trough moving across The Rockies
Sunday night and Monday which brings a quick shot of precipitation
and cold air to the area. The 00z run of the ec had trailing energy
digging down the backside of the system and developed a cutoff low
across The Four Corners region...whereas the 00z GFS ensembles kept
a more progressive system. At any rate...should see temperatures
falling back to more normal levels for the beginning of next week
and have kept a mention of probability of precipitation over and near the higher terrain
for Sunday and Monday for now.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 310 PM MDT Tuesday Oct 21 2014

A quick moving Pacific disturbance will track across the flight area
over the next 24 hours. System will bring showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to the Continental Divide...with isolated activity
reaching across the high valleys to the eastern mountain ranges. The
plains could see some isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight and
Wednesday...mainly along the Palmer Divide and also out near the
Kansas border. Chances look pretty meager elsewhere. Pilots can
expect MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions in precipitation. Kcos...kpub and
kals taf sites can largely expect VFR conditions next 24 hours.
However...there is a small chance that a brief shower could pass
over any of the 3 sites this afternoon or evening...especially as a
weak trough axis moves across...from west to east...03z-09z.

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...lw
long term...mw
aviation...lw

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