Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1140 am MDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 453 am MDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Not many meteorological adjustments needed during the short-term as
primary concerns are temperatures and probability of precipitation. Large portions of the
forecast district currently experiencing mostly clear skies(with the
exception of southwest sections where more clouds reside) in
combination with above seasonal early September temperatures.

Latest forecast model soundings...pv analysis...real/near time data
and computer simulations indicate that another round of isolated
to low grade primarily higher terrain afternoon into night-time
showers and thunderstorms will develop as next upper disturbance
interacts with adequate atmospheric moisture.

Also...the potential exists that a few of the stronger storms will
be capable of generating brief heavy rainfall...gusty winds and
possibly some small hail...favoring southwestern locations. If a
stronger storm develops and/or moves over a burn scar...localized
flash flooding may develop. As forecast office Pueblo will monitor

As upper ridging slowly shifts from southeastern New Mexico this
morning to West Texas by Thursday morning and 700 mb temperatures
rebound...anticipate that above seasonal temperatures will again be
noted over the majority of the forecast district during the next
24 hours. In addition...low-grade gradient winds are expected to
prevail over the County warning forecast area into tonight.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 453 am MDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Southwest flow aloft will be over the area Thursday and Friday as an upper
ridge sits over the central U.S. And an upper trough digs south along
the West Coast. This flow will allow monsoon moisture to continue
tracking northward into western Colorado...allowing for good precipitation chances
over the mountain areas...especially the Continental Divide. Over the southeast
Colorado plains...mainly isolated precipitation chances can be expected. Breezy
south to southwest winds are expected over much of the area Thursday
afternoon and evening.

Southwest flow aloft continues on Sat as the upper trough to the west
begins moving eastward and into northern Nevada. The moist flow into
the area continues Sat allowing for scattered or higher precipitation chances
over the higher terrain and mainly isolated chances over the
southeast plains.

The upper trough lifts northeastward on sun...into eastern Montana...with an
upper ridge being centered over Texas. The forecast models show the
moisture flow into the forecast area being cut off this day...with
little chance for precipitation. Sun night a front moves southward into
eastern Colorado...with low level upslope developing by Monday afternoon. A
bit of monsoon moisture is forecast to move back into western Colorado Monday
afternoon for isolated to scattered precipitation over and near the higher
terrain. On Tuesday and upper ridge is forecast to be centered from
norther Mexico into western Texas...with a new upper low just off the
central California coast. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move across
southern Colorado Tuesday with increased precipitation chances over southern portions
of the forecast area.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1126 am MDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015

Thunderstorms and rain will remain confined mainly to the mountains/interior valleys
today...and will carry a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention only at kals for later this
afternoon into the evening. Could see a storm near kcos along the
Palmer Divide and over the high terrain west of the terminal 21z-
24z...but probablity is too low to include in the taf at this
point. Overnight...some weak convection will linger along the
Continental Divide into Thursday morning...with possibly some MVFR
ceilings/visible over the higher peaks and passes.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations