Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1101 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
..one more warm day...
Another very warm afternoon today...with temperatures currently in the
lower 80s across the plains as of 100 PM MDT. Should see a couple
more degrees and flirt with some records before things start to cool
Upstream system is now moving into western Utah...and high clouds are
starting to spread towards the Colorado border. By late evening tonight
clouds will thicken over the Continental Divide...and by midnight or so should
start to see some scattered-numerous showers develop along the dvd. Best shot
at any measurable precipitation will be between 12-18z Sun morning...with
another brief round possibly developing later in the afternoon. But
the system does not look too impressive...and even the highest peaks
will probably only see light snow accums...an inch or so. The eastern
mts could see some isolated showers but not expecting much.
Elsewhere...dry again and with the wrly flow temperatures again should make
it into the 80s across the plains.
Two weather concerns in the short term: the potential for strong leeside
winds tonight and Sun morning...and fire weather.
With the more nearly storm track...a stronger wrly jet will be over
the Colorado mts tonight into Sunday. Latest high res guidance is showing
700 mb winds nearly due west...and in the 40-50 knots range by 12z Sunday.
Some model x-sections are showing pretty strong reverse shear over
the southern sangres Sun morning...while the overall Montana wave signature
does not look particularly strong. At this point...expect some
locally enhanced downslope winds but nothing widespread enough to
justify headlines...but will have to take a hard look at the high
res 00z data to watch the potential for more widespread or stronger
The other concern tomorrow will be the fire weather elements...especially
along the I-25 corridor. It looks like portions of Las Animas County
could see near critical to critical red flag criteria by middle
afternoon...and farther north in Pueblo County it will be close. Right
now it still looks like conditions will be relatively brief and
marginal...so will not be hoisting any headlines at this time. But
will have to keep an eye on the trends tonight since the current
trend is for lower relative humidity than previous forecasts. Winds look to be a
limiting factor with only 15-25 miles per hour gusts forecast at this time east of
the mts. Rose
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Sun night an upper trough will be moving across the northern rockies...with
westerly flow aloft over Colorado. Precipitation is expected along the
Continental Divide...with the main impact being over the central Colorado mountains...where
a couple or a few inches of snow will probably fall. Monday morning a
front moves southward through the eastern Colorado plains. Some light showers will
probably continue over the central mountains...with maybe some isolated precipitation
over the Pikes Peak/Teller County area and the Palmer dvd. For Monday
afternoon the forecast models indicate that there could be some
isolated precipitation over the southeastern plains/mountains so will leave that in the
forecast. In the wake of the upper trough and the surface cold
front...temperatures on Monday will be much colder than on Sunday...by about 20
degrees over the southeastern plains. Highs Monday will be just a few degrees
below average over the southeastern plains and around or slightly above
average in the San Luis valley.
The NAM shows the potential for some light...isolated precipitation over the southeastern
plains until late Monday night...while the GFS dries out in the evening
hours. The most significant concern for Monday night is the
potential for freezing temperatures over much of the southeastern plains. It looks
like low temperatures could be in the middle 20s to around 30.
Tuesday looks like a dry day with west to northwest flow aloft over the forecast
area. High temperatures on Tuesday look even cooler than on Monday...with
readings in the 50s to lower 60s at the lower elevations. Dry
weather continues on Wednesday as an upper ridge builds over the Great Basin.
High temperatures should be a little warmer on Wednesday...with around to
slightly above average readings. The upper ridge axis is forecast to
move over eastern Utah on Thursday...with continued dry weather over the forecast
area. However...a weak front is forecast to move through the southeastern Colorado
plains early in the day...leading to cooler temperatures on Thursday. Friday the
upper ridge move over Colorado...resulting in a little bit warmer weather.
Friday night/Sat morning...surface high pressure building into the southeastern Colorado
plains is forecast by the GFS to bring an increase in low level moisture
and a chance for precipitation. Meanwhile...an upper trough is forecast to move
into Nevada by late in the day...bringing mainly just an increase in
southwesterly flow aloft over western portions of Colorado.
Aviation...issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Oct 25 2014
Generally dry southwesterly to zonal flow aloft will allow VFR
conditions to continue at the kals...kcos and kpub taf sites
into Sunday. In addition...increasing winds are anticipated
at times over and near the tafs sites...especially from
later tonight into Sunday.