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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
506 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 335 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Currently...the current upper level set up places a relatively Flat
Ridge over the southern US...with an upper closed low over the California
coast and another upper disturbance crossing Montana and the
Dakotas. Plenty of sun today...but there is a bit more cloud cover
that has developed over the higher terrain this afternoon as compared to
yesterday. Temperatures are very similar with readings in the 80s pushing
90 f across the plains and in the 70s for the high valleys...as was
expected. A dry cold front has pushed into the northern sections of
the County Warning Area this afternoon...ushering in north-NE winds gusting up to 25 miles per hour
across El Paso County.

Tonight and tomorrow...the upper pattern does not change much over
the next 24 hours. The upper low over the California coast very slowly tries
to move inland...while the disturbance to the north continues
east...and Colorado remains in the middle of the two upper features.
Isolated convection over the higher terrain this afternoon and evening is
expected to shut down by midnight...with clearing skies overnight
save for the far southeast corner. Southerly surface flow there as well as
heightened moisture should equate to increased cloud cover moving up
across Las Animas and Baca counties into bent...Prowers and Kiowa
counties through early morning. The dry cold front that entered the
forecast area this afternoon will drive south...then surface winds will swing
around to a more easterly direction tomorrow. This will push low level
moisture up against the eastern mts...initially fueling isolated
convection over the mts by midday...then spreading across all of the
area through the middle and late afternoon. Increased cloud cover and precipitation
chances means about a 5 degree f cooling for the plains
tomorrow...while the high valleys and western areas should be very
similar to today. Moore

Long term...(saturday night through friday)
issued at 335 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Saturday night and Sunday...cold front continues moving south
overnight. Models suggest some convection continuing into the
evening over the plains and eastern mountains...likely due to
some weak warm air advection. Kept isolated probability of precipitation for much of the
region overnight...with highest probability of precipitation over El Paso and Teller
counties where models suggest best chances for precipitation. On
Sunday...deep upslope continues over the plains and eastern
mountains with upper trough approaching from the west. The 12z
NAM had convective available potential energy around 1000 /kg over the southern Interstate 25
corridor during the afternoon...but the 18z NAM has decreased the
amount of cape. The beginning time and location of convection will
depend on the amount of cape and when the upper trough reaches the
region. Currently...looks as if upper trough will mostly stay to
the west of the region during the day...with Continental Divide
region starting to feel the influence later in the afternoon. Over
the plains and eastern mountains...amount of surface heating and
instability will determine amount of convection. By the early
evening...the effects of the upper trough will start moving
northeast.

Monday and Tuesday...upper trough slowly passes to the north of
the region. Best lift and instability will stay to the north of
the County Warning Area...however there will still be enough lift for some showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day. By the evening...a
convective complex could develop over northeast Colorado and into
western Kansas. Extended scattered probability of precipitation southward along the
Kansas border during the evening to account for the overnight
convection. By Tuesday...trough will move into the northern High
Plains. It will still be modestly unstable behind the trough with
some convection developing over the northern portion of the County Warning Area
and extending along the Kansas border. Continental Divide region
will be drier as trough will be too far east of this region.

Wednesday through Friday...warming and drying trend will develop
as the upper low slowly drifts east. Ec has the trough being
slower...with the potential for some showers lingering over the
plains on Wednesday. --Pgw--

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 504 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions and light winds will continue for the next 24-30
hours. Showers and storms should again be confined to the mts Sat
afternoon...but could be a bit more widespread than they were this
afternoon. Rose

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...Moore
long term...pgw
aviation...rose

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