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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
753 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

issued at 751 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Loaded latest observations into front end of forecast grids. No
other changes at this time.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 434 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

..monsoon plume starting to organize and drift this way...

Satellite and radar imagery overnight has shown evidence that the
monsoon moisture plume is starting to become more organized and
drift farther east into Colorado. Both satellite and radar have
shown active areas of convection with thunderstorms continuing
through the night over the western slope...up to the Continental
Divide. Clusters of convection continue at this hour over western
portions of the San Juans...including extreme western portions of
the West Fork complex scar...and the Sawatch Range from Monarch Pass
up to Leadville and Climax. Activity is not very intense at this
hour but continuing to bubble with even a few lightning strikes at

This activity is associated with the eastern edge of the organizing
monsoon plume. Models forecast the plume to work eastward to about
the I-25 corridor this afternoon...and then draping even farther
eastward across the plains this weakened fashion.
So...expecting an upswing in activity today...especially west of

Wind shear...while increasing a little from past days...still looks
fairly severe threat still low. Primary threats will
continue to be lightning...gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

It's hard to tell right now...but there are some indications that
there is even a weak shortwave embedded in the monsoon plume that
will track across the area during the afternoon and evening. Water
vapor pictures this morning sort of hint at this with the ongoing
activity over western Colorado occurring in advance of an area of
slight drying over Utah. Also...models show a very slight
depression coming through the top of the ridge through western
Colorado in the afternoon and through eastern Colorado during the
evening. This could possibly just be convective feedback...but it
may very well be a weak wave over Utah this morning. In any event...
it should all add up to a more active day...convectively...across
the region.

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 434 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

..more widespread wet weather next week...

In the meantime...Friday and Saturday will feature a continuation
of the very warm to hot weather with afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms...mainly confined to the mountains and adjacent
valleys and I-25 corridor. Severe weather is unlikely both days.
High temperatures will be in the 90s to around 100 across the
plains...70s and 80s high valleys and 50s to lower 70s mountains.

Late Saturday and into Sunday...a trough will send a rush of
cooler air into the plains which will persist through Wednesday.
As mentioned last night...the general pattern looks similar to
last week when severe weather and flash flooding occurred.
Moist...upslope flow in the east will develop...with dew points
climbing into the 50s to near 60 degrees. While every day will
have the potential for locally heavy rain...the most likely days
will be Sunday and Tuesday for the most widespread activity. On the upper ridge is shoved farther west...the upper
northwest flow will increase...which will bring the greatest risk
for severe weather. High temperatures will be noticeably lower
with highs in the 70s to 80s plains. Meantime...out west...there
will be a daily chance for showers and storms...with high
temperatures in the 70s to 80s high valleys...and 50s to lower 70s
mountains. Obviously with the upcoming weather pattern...burn
scars will be at risk for flash flooding...and interests should
pay very close attention to forecasts and possible warnings.


Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 434 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014

Monsoon plume becoming more organized and shifting eastward into
flight area today. This will result in an upswing in thunderstorm
activity 18z-06z today...especially west of I-25. Wind
shear...while increased from recent still fairly low so
severe threat remains low. Primary threats will continue to be
lightning...erratic gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Local
MVFR/IFR/LIFR flight conditions possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms today with an increased chance of such conditions than
in previous days...especially west of I-25.

All 3 taf sites will have the opportunity for thunderstorms in the
vicinity early as 17z at kals...and more likely after 19z
at kcos and kpub.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...lw

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