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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
244 PM MDT Monday may 25 2015

Short term...(this evening through tuesday)
issued at 242 PM MDT Monday may 25 2015

..back to the seventies...

Remember those days? Well...with a little more sun and 700 mb temperatures
climbing to 7 degree or higher tomorrow...should get into the seventies
tomorrow over the plains...possibly near 80 degrees for the warmest
spots. Residual moisture should keep highs from reaching the guidance
values...however.

Rest of today...marginal threat of severe has shifted to the east...but
still areas of 750-1000 cape...especially near the Kansas border.
So...despite modest shear...cannot rule out some marginally strong-
severe storms in multi-cell clusters late this afternoon through this evening.
Small hail will be the most likely threat.

Snow levels remain relatively high...with the passes currently
reporting middle 30s this afternoon. Low amplitude upper ridge will
continue to build through tomorrow...while weak disturbances in
the flow St off mainly diurnal showers and storms. Wind shear
will remain modest on Tuesday...so severe threat will be low. Extreme
southeast corner of the County Warning Area will still see some marginally severe parameters
in the afternoon...but the NAM is indicating suppressed convection
over that area due to the upper ridging. Enjoy the seventies! Rose

Long term...(tuesday night through monday)
issued at 242 PM MDT Monday may 25 2015

Tuesday night and Wednesday...the shortwave ridge over the area will shift
eastward as an upper low moves into Idaho and its upper trough extends
southward to Baja California California. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over and near
the mountains Tuesday evening and then again on Wednesday afternoon...with mainly
just some isolated precipitation over the rest of the area. It looks like high
temperatures on Wednesday will be around average...which is mostly in the 70s over
the lower elevations.

The upper trough is then forecast to move slowly eastward on Wednesday night
and Thursday...extending from western Wyoming into Arizona by 00z Friday. Thursday looks like
another day of showers and thunderstorms mainly over and near the mountains areas.
For Friday a baggy trough will lie over the state...and a front will move through
southeastern Colorado. The area is expected to really moisten up during the day
Friday...with widespread precipitation developing and continuing Friday night.
Temperatures on Thursday should drop back to below average again. The upper trough
and low will move east into Kansas Sat...but wrap around moisture is
expected to keep widespread precipitation over eastern Colorado on Sat...with the mountain
and High Valley areas having scattered precipitation.

Sat night the low moves farther east and it looks like the forecast
area will then have drier weather. On sun an upper ridge builds over the Great
Basin and then move eastward over Colorado on Monday. There will still be
enough moisture around for some mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Tuesday evening)
issued at 242 PM MDT Monday may 25 2015

Showers and a few storms will continue to develop this
afternoon...especially vc kpub along and S of hgwy 50. Some brief
restrictions to visible will be possible with showers/ts. Convection
will be even more suppressed on Tuesday as high pressure builds over
southeast Colorado. Will see isolated-scattered showers and storms...mainly over the hyr
terrain. Winds will continue to be relatively light except thunderstorms in the vicinity. Rose

&&

Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

Short term...rose
long term...28
aviation...rose

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