Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1118 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2015
issued at 838 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Updated to bring in latest observation data and to end probability of precipitation
across the area based on latest radar trends.
Short term...(this evening through sunday)
issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Currently...isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed over
the mountains this afternoon with dry conditions across the plains.
Temperatures are warm with upper 80s to lower 90s for the lower
Tonight...upper level ridging will remain in place tonight.
Expected isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
through this evening over the mountains. Weak steering flow aloft
should keep convection anchored to the terrain with little movement.
Lightning along with gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with most storms. Pea size hail may also be
possible with stronger storms...especially overt he southern sangre
Delaware cristo range. Models in good agreement with showers and
thunderstorms dissipating by 10 PM with dry conditions expected to
prevail into Sunday morning.
Sunday...the upper level ridge will begin to shift eastward as an
upper level trough moves into the northern rockies. Models bring a
weak disturbance in southwesterly flow into western Colorado by the
afternoon hours. Expect another day of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for the mountains during the afternoon and
evening. Given the incoming disturbance...the greatest coverage is
expected over the San Juan and La Garita ranges. Lightning...gusty
outflow winds...locally heavy rainfall and pea size hail will be
possible with thunderstorms. The latest model guidance keeps the
plains dry through tomorrow afternoon...however thunderstorms may
begin to move off the Rampart Range into El Paso County by Sunday
evening. Temperatures will remain warm across the region with 90s
expected for the lower elevations. Mozley
Long term...(sunday night through saturday)
issued at 239 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Westerly flow aloft may be just strong enough to push some weak
convection into the I-25 corridor sun evening...though storm
coverage will be isolated at best. Eastern plains will likely stay
dry as most storms will die fairly quickly away from the higher
terrain. Initial short wave moves from the northern rockies into
the High Plains on Monday...flattening the upper ridge and allowing
for middle level moisture to spread across most of southern Colorado.
Surface cold front drops south through the plains Monday afternoon as
well...which will likely serve as a focus for convection into the
evening. Thus expect an increase in thunderstorms and rain chances all areas
Monday...including the eastern plains...where convective available potential energy climb to near
1000 j/kg by late afternoon. Front dissipates on Tuesday with low
level winds becoming S-SW by afternoon...though suspect enough
moisture will linger to keep the threat of at least isolated
convection in place most areas into the evening. Maximum temperatures Monday
well above normal most locations ahead of the front...with only
some very minor cooling Tuesday over the eastern plains.
From Wednesday Onward...upper trough deepens over the Pacific
northwest...keeping middle level flow generally SW across Colorado. Rather
low-grade monsoon tap will remain over the state...keeping the
threat for isolated...mainly mountain thunderstorms and rain going Wed-Sat. Temperatures
for the period look to remain well above seasonal averages many
locations...with 90s rather widespread over the eastern
plains...and 70s/80s across the higher terrain.
Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1118 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2015
Upper ridge over the state tonight moves slightly east through the
day tomorrow...with increasing moisture within weak southwest flow
aloft leading to a increase afternoon and evening showers and
storms over and near the mountains. VFR conditions expected for
cos...pub and als over the next 24 hours...with the chances for
storms still too low to include in tafs.