Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix Arizona
933 am MST sun may 19 2013
Synopsis...
a series of cool low pressure systems will continue to move into the
western states mainly north of Arizona through Monday. Near normal
temperatures...mostly clear skies...and somewhat breezy afternoons
are expected. A high pressure system will build back into the region
Tuesday through Friday...and except for some high clouds at times...
afternoon temperatures on the deserts will warm back into the 100 to
103 degree range.
&&
Discussion...
mostly clear skies prevail across the lower deserts this morning.
Visible satellite imagery shows some cumulus developing across northern
Arizona...as well as a few cumulus along the rim. Otherwise...only some
high clouds noted well to the south in Sonora. Temperatures as of 1630z
were already in the lower 80s at most desert locations.
Making only minor adjustments to temperatures based on trends through 16z.
Still looking at middle 90s for highs...perhaps a degree or two warmer
than yesterday. Forecast is in good shape overall.
&&
Previous discussion...
today through Monday...
a series of cool low pressure systems will continue to move through
the intermountain and Rocky Mountain states...including parts of
northern Arizona. Mostly clear skies...near normal temperatures...and
slightly breezy afternoons are expected across our forecast area...
southeast California to south central Arizona.
Tuesday through Friday...
a high pressure system will build back into the region. Desert
temperatures will warm back into the 100 to 103 degree range.
Occasional high clouds will also work into the region from the
Pacific.
Saturday and Sunday...
another large Pacific low pressure system will move into the western
states late Friday through Sunday...mainly northwest of Arizona. Gusty
afternoon winds are expected this period...along with temperatures
falling back to near seasonal normals.
&&
Aviation...
south-central Arizona...including kphx...kiwa...ksdl...southeast
California/southwest Arizona...including kipl and kblh...
Weak ridging building into the region from the west will keep skies
clear...or mostly clear through the taf period. Winds to remain
mainly on the light side through Sunday...except for some westerly
afternoon breezes at the phx area terminals. No aviation impacts
expected through the period.
Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.
&&
Fire weather...
Tuesday through Saturday...
high pressure passing over the region will keep the weather
dry...under mostly clear skies...with afternoon highs near 100f
across the lower deserts Tuesday through Thursday. A slight cooling
trend is then expected on Friday and Saturday as a low pressure trough
pushes southward into the western Great Basin. Winds to remain on
the light side through Thursday...with some afternoon westerly
breezes to develop on Friday and Saturday. Minimum humidities to
remain in the 5 to 10 percent range...with fair overnight recoveries
through the forecast period.
&&
Psr watches/warnings/advisories...
Arizona...none.
California...none.
&&
$$
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Discussion...leins/vasquez
aviation...percha
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