Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
214 PM MDT Monday Jul 6 2015

Discussion...a weak frontal boundary is slowly moving through our
area helping kick off isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the central mountains and scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms in the eastern and southern Highlands
this afternoon. The eastern and southern Highlands will likely see
strong thunderstorms with large hail up to an inch possible
combined with gusty winds around 50 miles per hour as well as localized heavy
rain. Localized minor flooding is not out of the question
especially around steep terrain. Tomorrow look for mainly
afternoon isolated to scattered thunderstorms primarily along the
eastern Highlands. Wednesday an upper level low will move over
California bringing moisture and instability into our area
allowing for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Good
precipitation chances...particularly in the afternoon...will
continue through Friday. Saturday expect only a slight chance of
precipitation over our northern areas...mainly the northern
central mountains. Expect temperatures to drop slightly below
normal today through Friday. Saturday through Monday temperatures
will start to increase slightly reaching slightly above normal by
Monday. Wyatt


Aviation...-shra with isolated embedded -tsra are clearing only
slowly from west to east...while more -shra/-tsra are developing in
the central Idaho mountains. Thus have -shra in the tafs and kept
the thunderstorms in the vicinity through the evening. Other than thunderstorm
not see any impact to visibilities or ceilings. Expect all stations to clear to
ceiling/visibility unlimited by 07/06z. Messick


Fire weather...showers and thunderstorms tonight are slow moving
while more are being generated over the Salmon-Challis and northern
sawtooth nfs. Look for lower coverage and lower threat for Tuesday
afternoon/evening. A low currently in the eastern Pacific moves
closer and shift the airflow to more and more southerly...increasing
the threat for showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday through at least
Sat. Sat is when the low itself moves through the Gem state. With
all the clouds developing...temperatures will struggle to get to
climatic average highs. Thus humidity should not get excessively low
either. The low moving through may bring the wind up...but no strong
frontal passage expected during this upcoming week. Messick


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations