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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
220 am MDT Friday may 22 2015

Discussion...upper low seen on WV imagery this morning passing
over the coastal waters of Southern California. Plenty of middle
and upper level moisture remains over the region with a broad
southeasterly flow aloft. NAM/GFS keeping trend of active weather
during the afternoon and evening with destabilization leading to
isolated thunderstorms. The upper low will continue to track
northeast into Utah by Saturday morning. Both GFS/NAM favor a band
of heavy precipitation...0.7 to 1.0 inches in 6 hours...over our
southeast corner approximately from Soda Springs to Malad. Began
ramping up quantitative precipitation forecast. Not quite as high as models project...but am a bit
concerned of the run-to-run consistency of placement and
intensity of rainfall with respect to potential flooding.

NAM indicates a drying trend starting around Sunday with a weak
upper ridge transiting the area...but GFS shows more influence of
wrap-around moisture from upper low and is a wetter solution.
European model (ecmwf) supports slightly drier weather Sunday for the central
mountains. Have trimmed back on probability of precipitation over the Sawtooths starting
Sunday into Monday. Only minor changes warranted for early next
week as models struggle to come to terms with respect to the upper
low sagging into the Puget Sound sound area. GFS has it more stationary
while the European model (ecmwf) slowly progresses the low across northern Idaho.
Hinsberger

&&

Aviation...an upper low over central California is expected to
slowly move to the Great Basin by Saturday. The threat of showers
and thunderstorms will continue again today...with most of the
activity late this afternoon/early evening. Overall conditions are expected
to prevail...with brief MVFR ceilings possible in precipitation. Hedges
&&

Fire weather...an upper low over central California is expected to
slowly move to the Great Basin by Saturday. The threat of showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. Most of the
activity will be in the afternoon and early evening. This trend is
expected to continue through much of next week. Hedges
&&

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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