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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
330 am MST Friday Nov 27 2015

Short through Sunday night. High pressure is
centered over southwest British Columbia bringing northerly winds
over our area. Expect much cooler temperatures today through middle
next week. Expect patchy freezing fog tonight and tomorrow night
mainly across the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. A
weak upper level low over central eastern Nevada and central
western Utah will slowly move east northeast the next several
days. Expect light snow over extreme southeast Idaho with 2 to 4
inches of snow over the Wasatch mountains through the period. A
trace to 1 inch is possible through the period over lower
elevations across Cassia...southern Bannock...Caribou...Franklin
... Bear Lake counties. Models vary on cloud cover
from this low which is causing a difference on the temperature
forecast. The GFS model is bringing less cloud cover over our
northern areas the first couple of days in the period. Thus...have
lowered temperatures...particularly morning 5 to 10
degrees across our northern areas. Stanley will likely reach
around 15 below and the Snake River Plain around zero to 5 above
the next couple of mornings. Wyatt

Long term...Monday through Friday. Seeing better agreement between GFS
and European model (ecmwf) tonight. Both solutions Dumbell upper low around itself
with main center shifting into Central Plains and secondary wave
swinging through Montana into east Idaho. Area of light precipitation
painted over east Idaho so kept weak probability of precipitation mainly over eastern
Highlands through Tuesday night. Weak Pacific shortwave shifts
inland and splits with transitory ridge over east Idaho into
Wednesday. Model differences with stronger Pacific trough as it
reaches coast and shifts inland. GFS remains more progressive with
the trough while European model (ecmwf) deepens it and maintains ridge axis over or
slightly east of forecast area. Opted to stick with blend which spreads
probability of precipitation west to east across state mainly Thursday through Friday. Dmh


Aviation...Sat imagery and surface observation continue to show entrenched area
of fog kbyi west to kboi with LIFR conditions. Northeast flow
through snake plain enough to hold eastward extent in check. Could
also be a bit of low stratus/fog pushing into The Bear lake area per
Sat imagery. Otherwise expect VFR conditions remainder of east Idaho
through today. Models being very insistent on redeveloping fog with
greater coverage overnight tonight. Given amount of expected sun on
fresh snow...believe this to be a very plausible solution and will
continue to trend terminals in that direction with MVFR/IFR
conditions overnight. Dmh


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...


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