Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
312 am MDT Monday Apr 27 2015
Short term...today through Wednesday night.
Large upper level ridge will move overhead Tuesday and expect dry
and warming conditions today and Tuesday. Temperatures today will
warm about 5 to 10 degrees from Sunday and warm another 5 to 10
degrees on Tuesday and be well above seasonal normal. A weak upper
level system will approach Wednesday and Wednesday night and
expect some isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly in the
mountains late Wednesday and Wednesday night. The very warm
conditions will continue on Wednesday. Mainly light winds are
expected through Tuesday with perhaps some 10 to 20 miles per hour winds in
the Snake River Plain on Wednesday.
Long term...Thursday through Monday. Extended period characterized
by zonal or flat trough pattern. Timing shortwave features
sufficient to trigger convection will be difficult at best this
early in forecast cycle. GFS and European model (ecmwf) remain in general agreement
on the pattern thus kept pop mention across higher elevation areas
each day with a nudge slightly higher where both models agree on
precipitation placement. Could be occasionally breezy during afternoons
with zonal impact. Dmh
Aviation...upper ridge beginning to shift over the region today.
Lingering moisture may be enough to form a few pockets of light fog
this morning but any development should be isolated and shortlived.
Look for VFR conditions to continue through tonight with clearing
all areas through the morning. Dmh