Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
815 am MDT Wednesday Apr 16 2014

Short term...today through Saturday. Quick update this morning to
decrease the potential for showers both today and tonight. See
previous discussion below. Huston

High pressure ridge begins to take shape near the Pacific northwest
coast today. Northwest flow over Idaho will provide isolated showers
over the Lost River...Sawtooth Mountains and upper snake Highlands.
Snow levels about 5200-5400 feet elevation this afternoon but
accumulation should be less than an inch even in the mountains. West
Coast ridge moves inland Thursday through almost Friday morning
providing a pause in any precipitation. A cold front will reach the
central mountains Friday morning...crossing the upper snake plain by
early afternoon. Looks like a breezy day...but below advisory
levels. Expect scattered showers but instability does not seem to
favor thunderstorms. Upper trough exits east of state by early
Friday evening leading to clearing over night. By Saturday...both
the GFS and NAM are pretty dry across the forecast area while the
European model (ecmwf) keeps a little moisture and instability in the south Central
Highlands. Lowered probability of precipitation most everywhere for Saturday...leaving a
slight chance in the southern Highlands. High temperatures in the
middle to upper 50s today...then valleys warm into the 60s Thursday and
Friday with southerly flow ahead of the cold front. Very little cool
down on Saturday. Receiver station

Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday. High pressure ridging
across the region on Sunday will give way to a developing trough of
low pressure off the West Coast. Upper level wind flow will shift
to the southwest with warming temperatures as the main impacts.
With the trough slowly digging into the West Coast there is a
potential for an isolated thunderstorm by Monday afternoon and early
evening but too early for timing. As the trough moves inland on
Tuesday precipitation chances increase along with instability in the
warm sector over eastern Idaho. GFS model is further south than
European at this point so a blend was placed in our forecast.
Wednesday to cool down as cold front is to the east. Showers linger
with temperatures falling from the 70s on Monday and Tuesday to the
50s and lows 60s. Preston
&&

Aviation...VFR conditions expected over next 24 hours. Northwest
flow aloft will keep high clouds passing over the region but minimal
impacts at each of the taf airports. There may be some afternoon
wind gusts in the Snake River Plain up to 18kts as the only minor
impact expected. Preston
&&

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$