Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
836 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014
Update...just a couple of minor updates to the forecast today. An
area of low and middle level clouds is moving into the central
mountains this morning. They shouldn't be around for very long so
we are just adding that in for the morning hours. The showers
around Island Park are gone so we took those out as well.
Otherwise...we are still on track for a breezy and dry Thursday.
The red flag warning and Wind Advisory are still in effect through
Previous discussion... /issued 251 am MDT Thursday Jul 24 2014/
Short term...today through Saturday. The upper low over northwest Washington is
expected to move to southern Alberta by this evening. This system will
drag a dry cold front through Idaho this morning. A few showers in the
upper snake Highlands near The Divide should be out of the area
around sunride. Strong Post-frontal winds will pick up this morning
an continue into the early evening. Cooler temperatures will prevail today and
Friday. Friday morning temperatures are expected to bottom out in the low 30s in the
Central Mountain basins...and in the 40s elsewhere. Upper ridging begins
to build up over the west on Saturday. This will result in warmer
Long term...Sunday through Thursday. Upper ridging continues to
amplify on Sunday...with monsoon moisture returning to Idaho on
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and evening over the
mountains the upper ridge axis moves westward on Tuesday...disrupting the
monsoon flow into Idaho. This should result in more isolated thunderstorm
coverage over the mountains Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain
warm through the week under the influence of the ridge. Hedges
Aviation...expect VFR conditions with breezy to moderate winds today.
A dry cold front will move through the area today bringing breezy to
moderate winds. Kida and to an lesser extent kpih will see around 35
knots gusts in the afternoon. Kbyi will see around 25 kts and ksun
around 20 kts gusts in the afternoon. Wyatt
Fire weather...breezy to moderate winds are expected today as an
upper level low moves over northern Idaho and southern Canada. A dry
cold front will move through early this morning leaving breezy to
moderate winds across the area this morning through the afternoon.
Expect winds around 20 to 25 miles per hour in the mountains and 35 to 40 miles per hour
across the Snake River Plain. Additionally...look for very dry air
behind this front to move into our area this afternoon dropping
relative humidity below 15 percent across much of the area. The red
flag warning for gusty winds and low humidity for zones
410...422...425...and 427 between 9 am and 9 PM has been continued.
Winds are expected to calm after sunset. Temperatures will cool off
slightly for today and Friday to around normal. Expect well above
normal temperatures by Sunday continuing through next week. Dry
conditions will remain until the return of monsoon moisture
sometime early next week. Wyatt
red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening idz410-425.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening idz020-021.
Red flag warning until 9 PM MDT this evening idz422-427.