Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
228 am MDT Wednesday Jul 29 2015
Short term...a dry high pressure ridge begins to take hold today
and will persist through Friday. Afternoon high temperatures
expected to be about 10 degrees warmer this afternoon and trend
upwards another 4 to 5 degrees on Thursday. Along with
this...morning lows will be warmer as well and will be above the
local frost zone except for very patchy ares in the mountains.
Otherwise...generally clear skies and light winds. Receiver station
Long term...beginning Saturday...high a ridge of high pressure
begins to center itself near The Four Corners area. This is
favorable for monsoon moisture to move north through California
Saturday and eventually into southeast Idaho by Sunday. This puts
US back into thunderstorms developing each afternoon and evening.
Somewhere around next Wednesday we will be looking for a
disturbance to come in off the Pacific and change this pattern. Receiver station
Aviation...widespread VFR conditions under high pressure ridge
today and Thursday. Receiver station
Fire weather...southeast Idaho will be under a dry high pressure
ridge today through Friday. Afternoon highs will trend up today
about 8 to 10 degrees while afternoon humidity around
Salmon...Challis...Arco and Shoshone lowers to near 10 percent.
Mainly slope winds will prevail everywhere. Focus continues to be on
high pressure near The Four Corners area beginning about Saturday.
Monsoon moisture begins to take a wide track through California and
by Sunday advances into Idaho. We will be under the influence of
this monsoon moisture with afternoon and evening thunderstorms
until a low pressure trough off the Pacific moves inland about the
middle of next week. Receiver station