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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
1147 am MST Thursday Nov 26 2015


Decided to allow all advisories/warnings to expire. Models show
snow diminishing throughout the afternoon and radar trends are
beginning to indicate this as well. Some gusty winds still across
the snake plain into the Magic Valley which may produce some areas
of blowing/drifting snow. However area web cams indicate that Road
crews seem to be on top of it. Some spots across the snake plain
into the Magic Valley could still see an additional half inch by
this evening.



Previous discussion... /issued 250 am MST Thursday Nov 26 2015/

Short through Saturday. Snow is ongoing this
morning and is being wrapped around the middle-level low over the
Utah/Nevada border. While most of the synoptic forcing appears to have
shifted into Wyoming...still seeing some conditional instability
coincident with 700mb frontogenesis that is keeping a heavier
snowband active from Idaho Falls westward to just north of Jerome.
A strong gradient remains over the upper snake plain and winds
continue across the Arco desert with gusts around 40 to 45 miles per hour.
Guidance is significantly under-doing wind speeds over that area.
May continue to see strong winds through the afternoon...but not
enough certainty to push Wind Advisory beyond on-going headlines.
Models are still showing diminished precipitation across the area this
afternoon...but the upper low stays over Nevada/Utah through Friday and
shows signs of dropping towards the southwest Friday night. It
looks like we will be keeping cold air in the area through the
weekend with lows dropping into single digits. Another low lifts
across the Wasatch Range Saturday ahead of the previous low and
may induce some snowfall over our eastern Highlands so
reintroduced slight chance probability of precipitation for the Montpelier/Soda Springs
all the way to the Wyoming border. Hinsberger

Long term...Saturday night through Thursday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) start the
extended period slightly out of sync and remain so through the
extended. European model (ecmwf) remains further southeast than the GFS with the
upper low. Both solutions maintain weak wrap around snow shower
activity Sunday but the GFS holds on to it into Monday as well.
Canadian agrees with the GFS so blended toward the more northerly
and slightly wetter track. Moving toward middle week and beyond the ec
shoves Pacific energy south along the coast while the GFS/Canadian
shift amplified but consolidated and fast moving trough inland
Monday night into Tuesday. GFS holds on to this feature and shifts
it across east Idaho while Canadian washes it out and European model (ecmwf) drives a
ridge across the region. Without any kind of consensus opted to
maintain current forecast with minor tweaks toward consensus blend. Dmh

Aviation...deep low centered over northern Utah continues to
produce snow over southeast half of eastern Idaho. Latest Sat and
radar trends indicate some weakening of the heaviest bands.
Expecting the heaviest snow to continue to weaken through the
remainder of the early morning but low ceilings and light snow could
continue especially for kbyi/kpih where gradient favors terrain
enhancement. Position of the low along with deep moisture across the
area favors continuation of low ceilings through most of the
afternoon along with at least vcsh mention even if the heaviest snow
does taper. Better expectations of improvement at least up to
MVFR after 00z tonight. Winds should decrease through the day as
well. Dmh


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...


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