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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
306 am MST Tuesday Jan 27 2015

Short through Friday. Sat imagery showing upper low
lifting through Southern California this morning and should continue
northward into Nevada this afternoon. Fog development this morning
is much slower than previous nights...but we are seeing it on
webcams around Island Park and some mist on Pocatello observation.
Precipitation should begin just after 18z over the southern
Highlands...then spread into the snake plain and central mountains.
Strong inversion continues over the area with temperatures above 50
degrees at 3000 feet above ground level per 00z kslc and kboi soundings. Forecast
soundings show the freezing level slowly dropping this afternoon so
most areas should start off as rain...then progress to a rain/snow
mix by late tonight though the lower valleys should continue to see
rain. Snow amounts are fairly light through tomorrow afternoon when
the system shifts to the east. We are looking at about 2 to 4 inches
in the eastern Highlands and central mountains...and 1 to 2 inches
in the upper valleys. Hinsberger

Long term...Friday through Monday. A second disturbance crosses
Southern California and Arizona Friday with the northern edge of
precipitation reaching the south central and Caribou Highlands of
Idaho. Snow levels will be near 5000 feet but probably only an inch
or two accumulation in the mountains. Saturday looks to be the
driest of the days...although the GFS model brings a quick
disturbance through Monida Pass to Island Park...but all the
significant precipitation should be further north in Montana. After
that...difficult to say if we are headed into a pattern change. The
low pressure trough in the eastern Pacific near 160w seems to loose
amplitude which permits a more westerly flow into the Oregon and
Washington coast for a few days. That means a more unsettled pattern
for Idaho. The GFS tries to bring surges of moisture through
southeast Idaho Monday and another on Tuesday. Nothing looks like a
big storm system at this time. Receiver station

Aviation...patchy fog around kpih this morning and that could be
short lived. The nam12 offers a threat of south winds and a sharp
jump to near 40f for kpih. Best timing using the WRF in BUFKIT
favors south winds breaking the inversion about 17z. Sct001 being
reported at kida may not be risk free. By 28/00z
clouds increase rapidly with the approaching low crossing
California. LIFR ceilings possible at ksun by 28/01z...snow levels
about 7100 feet over kbyi sloping to 6200 feet at ksun for mixed
precipitation at the air field. Snow levels lower to 5000-5400 feet
by Wednesday morning at all taf sites. Receiver station

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none.


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