Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
402 am MDT Tuesday Jul 29 2014
Short term...today through Thursday. Looking at satellite imagery
there is a broad high pressure ridge over our area. The satellite
imagery shows monsoon moisture entrenched over the area. Current
radar imagery show light showers over our eastern Highlands.
Models show these showers continuing through the morning into the
afternoon. A disturbance will move through Utah and Wyoming this
afternoon clipping the southeast Highlands/Bear Lake region helping
to trigger convection bringing scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Models are showing light convection over
the central mountains this afternoon as well. On Wednesday and
Thursday models show a different picture. Currently the NAM model
shows enhanced convection Wednesday with a weak wave where the GFS
model shows enhanced convection Thursday with a weak wave.
Overall...expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Waves moving through will bring scattered to numerous showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. With precipitable water
amounts over an inch...heavy storms will bring a possibility of
flash flooding. With mostly cloudy skies...expect temperatures to
remain below normal through the period.
Long term...Friday through next Tuesday. Models show monsoon
moisture to remain over the area through the period. Heavier
precipitation chances will depend on waves moving through the
area. Friday the models are hinting toward a wave moving through.
However...this has changed almost every model run. The overall
trend looks for slightly drier conditions Saturday and to an
lesser extent Sunday. Models show enhanced convection Monday and
Tuesday at this point.
Aviation...monsoonal moisture over the region will produce
scattered thunderstorms across the region for the next several days.
Ceiling and visibility restrictions are likely in thunderstorms.
Otherwise expect VFR conditions and light winds.
Fire weather...monsoonal moisture will remain over the region for
the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible...especially over the next several afternoons.