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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
159 PM MST Sat Feb 13 2016

Short term...tonight through Tuesday. A surge of Pacific moisture
into the Pacific northwest this afternoon will begin to spread snow across the
central mountains and eastern Highlands this evening...then across the rest
of the forecast area by Sun morning. Most of the precipitation will be in the
eastern Highlands where up to a foot of snow is possible at higher
elevations before tapering off late Monday afternoon. Mild temperatures are
expected to push the most significant snowfall above 7000 feet. The
central mountains...being somewhat shadowed from the moist flow...
should see 3 to 6 inches of snow. Most of this in the western
parts of Custer and Blaine counties. The valleys will see little
snow accumulation...with rain or a rain/snow mix. By Tuesday...most of
the precipitation will be snow showers limited to the eastern Highlands.

Strong winds across the Snake River Plain this afternoon will decrease
somewhat tonight...but pick up again on sun. Strong winds will
also pick up at the ridge tops and higher passes. Strong winds
will continue again on Monday. Winds may cause blowing and drifting
snow problems at the higher elevations of the eastern Highlands
sun through Monday. Hedges

Long term...Tuesday night through Saturday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) coming in
with a stronger trough approaching the Pacific coast Wednesday
night. Dynamics are shifted a bit further south with the European model (ecmwf)...yet
onset of precipitation from both models still looks to be between
00z and 06z Thursday over the central mountains and spreading across
the rest of the forecast area by 12z. Snow levels drop Thursday
night after surface cold front moves through and should see rain
change to snow or a rain/snow mix in the valleys...though drier air
is indicated by both models Friday morning. Best confidence of
precipitation is during the day Thursday so boosted probability of precipitation especially over
the mountains. GFS and European model (ecmwf) extended MOS guidance suggest windy
conditions for Thursday as well. I suspect we may be nudging those
up as we draw nearer to the event. Hinsberger

Aviation...infrared imagery shows vigorous shortwave over western
Montana...but most of the showers will be staying north of the
terminals today. The cold-air advection behind the trough is helping
erode the low-level inversion allowing winds to mix to the
surface...especially at kpih. Expecting mostly VFR conditions
through this evening. Tomorrow morning may bring a moist
northwesterly flow to the area. Upslope flow may keep most of the
activity over the southeastern Highlands...some may creep onto the
snake plain terminals. Timing of onset will be between 11z and 14z
tomorrow. Rain is expected in Burley...snow in Idaho Falls and snow
changing over to rain at Pocatello. Hinsberger

&&

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for idz021.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 am Sunday to 5 PM MST Monday for
idz019-023.

&&

$$

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