Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
152 PM MDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015

Short term...tonight through Thursday. Region will remain
entrenched within a broad southwesterly flow ahead of a
strengthening through over the eastern Pacific through late Wednesday.
By Thursday...this trough evolves into a closed low over California. This will
ensure a steady supply of moisture into southeast Idaho through the period.
Multiple disturbances embedded in this flow will provide support
for continued shower and thunderstorm chances...with most
widespread activity in the later afternoon and evening time
periods. Shower and thunderstorm activity this evening will be
most prevalent over the central mountains and upper snake
Highlands...with less coverage over the Snake River Plain. Most
activity diminishes overnight with some lingering activity over
the central mountains. Storm Prediction Center places the southern
portion of southeast Idaho within a marginal risk for severe weather
tomorrow...and this seems reasonable given favorable shear and
moisture. Instability is somewhat limited however.
Nevertheless...main threat will be gusty thunderstorm winds with a
lesser hail threat given somewhat marginal ingredients for hail.
Ad/dmh

Long term...Thursday night through Tuesday. Little changes made to
the extended forecast. Low pressure over California will slowly move
northward over the weekend to over Idaho by early next week. This
will keep a threat for thunderstorms in the forecast through the
extended forecast. Best chances for storms will be during the
daytime...although nightime convection cannot be ruled out. Valle

&&

Aviation...
thunderstorms in the vicinity in tafs through this evening all terminals with the greatest
chance at sun...as area remains entrenched in a moist
southwesterly flow ahead of an eastern Pacific trough. Gusty west-southwest
surface winds in the 10-20kt range with a few higher gusts over
byi..Ida..and pih will diminish by 03z. Renewed chances for thunderstorms in the vicinity
tomorrow afternoon all taf sites...with a better chance for
activity at byi...Ida and pih as compared to today. Ad/dmh



&&

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations