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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
100 PM MST Thursday Nov 26 2015

Short term...tonight through Sunday.

Snow is ending this afternoon across much of the area. Models
continue to show snow diminishing late this afternoon and this
evening. The low pressure system still resides over Nevada but
continues to lose much of its moisture as it sits over the Great
Basin. Gusty conditions persist across the snake plain and some
blowing/drifting continues but does not seem to be affecting
main roads. These winds should subside quickly this evening. Expect
cloudy conditions to persist over the southern half of the region
through much of the weekend because of the proximity of the low.
Very cold weather is expected as well and low single digits or
below zero temperatures are possible in locations where skies clear. Some
light snow will be possible over the southeast Highlands on
Saturday as the low pressure system slowly moves towards southeast
Idaho. Any accumulations on Saturday will be less than an inch and
shouldnt be much of a problem. The low will be over southeast
Idaho on Sunday and the models are indicating some light snow
across the region. Best chances are along and east of the i15
corridor. Most locations will see less than an inch once
again...however areas around Rexburg...Driggs...St. Anthony and
Island Park could see up to 2 inches. However winds are not
expected to be very strong so those amounts shouldnt create
serious driving issues.


Long term...Sun night through next Thursday night. Amazingly...the
differences between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS have continued--the GFS is
still wetter with the closed low moving through southern Idaho and
the European model (ecmwf) is holding on to the low tracking more through Utah and
keeping southern Idaho in Bone-chilling northerly flow. That
is...until the next trough approaches. On the GFS this occurs late
Wednesday night...and on the European model (ecmwf) late Thursday night. The GFS has dried
from yesterday mornings in a way its solution is
moving towards the European model (ecmwf). The bottom line is that there is now
major storm moving through the region until the incoming trough at
the very end of this extended period. Have tried to go in-between
the two solutions since they have both been consistent these last
three days. With the clearer conditions...the European model (ecmwf) has warmer
highs but only slightly colder for lows that are in subzero
temperature range for portions of the central Idaho mountains and
single-digits for many of the low elevation MOS guidance
locations. Only breezy day will arrive with the next trough at the
end of the period. Messick


Aviation...snow will be slow to clear from kpih...kida...and kbyi.
However it should wrap up in the next 4 to 6 hours. Fog and stratus
will be a threat for mainly kpih and kida where snow will end last.
Ksun already at middle-level ceilings and should continue to improve as
northwest wind increases. Very dry and cold air moving in behind
should limit the fog and stratus problems to tonight. Messick


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...


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