Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
155 PM MDT Friday Sep 19 2014

Short term...tonight through Saturday night. Dry conditions are
anticipated across the region through Saturday night as a cut-off
low remains southwest of the region.

Long term...Sunday through next Friday. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF are all
in fairly good agreement that the cut-off low over California will
drift NE into the southern Sierra late Saturday night with attending
moisture spreading into southeast Idaho Sunday morning and continuing
through Monday as the low progresses through southeast Idaho and into northern
Wyoming sometime late Monday afternoon. Drier conditions follow
Monday night through Wednesday night as the next upstream Pacific trough
approaches the coast and a ridge of high pressure builds across the
region. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are showing significant run to run
differences with the progression of the upper trough and eventual
onset of precipitation Thursday through Friday. Have thus taken a
blend of the 12z GFS and 00z European model (ecmwf) (tossed the 12z European model (ecmwf) which
appeared to be a wild outlier) which both favored the development of
a negatively tilted upper trough which spreads into the West
Coast...spinning off a closed low somewhere over the Great Basin.
The issue here is timing as the GFS was roughly 12hrs faster with
the progression. For now...have ramped the chance of precipitation
up starting Thursday and continued the trend into Friday. Huston
&&

Aviation...expect VFR conditions through the period with gusty
winds around 25 kts in the snake plain through sunset. Ep
&&

Fire weather...conditions have begun to dry out today and the trend
is expected to continue through early Sunday. As Sunday wears
on...a closed low will move into our area from the Great Basin and
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and
Monday. No major impacts or headlines expected as all zones in
southeast Idaho are in non-critical fuel status. Ep
&&

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations