Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
911 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 1 2015
a cold front will cross our area early tonight. The front will then
remain south of the area later tonight while weak low pressure will
move along it to the south Thursday. High pressure will build in for
Friday and Saturday, then another weak low will move to the south
Saturday night and early Sunday. High pressure will arrive for early
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
a cold front continues to move east and as of 01z it appears to
be nearing the coast with light winds shifting to the west and
northwest in its wake. Some weak short wave energy combined with
some lingering instability is maintaining some showers and even a
little thunder across the southern zones. This activity should
wane into the overnight as the instability lowers and the frontal
zone settles south and east some more. Otherwise, adjusted the
hourly grids based on the latest observations then blended in the
The cold front should tend to stall in the vicinity of Delaware-Maryland-Virginia
overnight. In the wake of the front, low-level drying will lower the
dew points at least some. Some model guidance hints at some
additional short wave energy riding the front toward daybreak with
perhaps a few showers across the far south. Otherwise, some higher
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through 6 PM Thursday/...
front remains stalled to our south through this time as the surface
high slowly builds east. Temperatures should be near or slightly
below normal in the wake of the front. There continues to be some
chance of generally light rain in the vicinity and just north of the
front with weak on shore flow.
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
showery conditions will be across the southern parts of the region
Thursday night as a weak area of low pressure moves along the front
across the Carolinas and lower Delaware-Maryland-Virginia region. The precipitation fields on
the GFS are more extensive then the most recent ec...but we will
keep the chance probability of precipitation for the southern region at this time. The showers may continue
into Friday morning...which we will keep for now...but the models may
be trending a bit faster with the wave...so it's possible that the
Friday morning showers may be removed in upcoming forecasts.
Overall...the upcoming weekend does not look too bad. The front will
remain to the south while high pressure moves across the Great Lakes
and into New England. There could be a few showers/thunderstorms Sat as an
upper trough crosses the area. Probability of precipitation would only be in the chance range
at best...a few may linger into the evening south. A mostly dry forecast
sun into Monday as high pressure settles across the area. High
temperatures will be near normal...at this warmest part of the
year. Maximums will be middle 80s south/east to low 80s north/west.
The beginning of next week may have a more unsettled pattern with
the front returning again from the south and low pressure moving
along it. The models will probably change several times with the
details over the next few days...so we will just use the wpc
probability of precipitation/temperatures for todays extended forecast. Temperatures will be mostly
near normal for the first part of next week.
Aviation /01z Thursday through Monday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Rest of tonight...VFR overall as a cold front settles through the
area. A few showers will be near kmiv and kacy into the early
overnight. The winds will continue to shift from northwesterly in
the wake of the cold front, then most terminals should have a light
and variable wind overnight before turning light northeasterly
toward daybreak. There is a chance for some light fog to develop
toward daybreak mainly at kabe, krdg, kmiv and kacy.
Thursday...VFR overall, however some showers especially in the
afternoon could get close to kmiv and kacy. Northeast winds 5-10
knots should become locally south-southeast in the afternoon.
Thursday night through Monday...overall VFR much of the time. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms may bring locally poorer vsbys/cigs. The most
likely times for this are Thursday night and Sat.
seas have not gone as high as previously forecast, thus, have
cancelled the Small Craft Advisory on the Atlantic waters. Winds may gust near 20 knots
at times this evening, especially just behind a cold front, that
should arrive late this evening. However, winds and seas should
remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria tonight and tomorrow.
several weak systems affecting the waters Thursday night and into the
weekend. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions for the most part. A few Small Craft Advisory gusts
possible Friday/Friday night with the onshore flow.
rainfall for the month of June ranked in the top 5 of the available
reliable historical database.
Wilmington #2 12.52. The wettest was 13.66 in 2013 and the top 4
wettest junes occurred since 2003. The period of record (por)
dates back to 1894.
Allentown #5 7.59 inches. The wettest 10.51 in 1938. Por to 1922.
10.51 1938 three of the wettest junes occurred since 2003
Atlantic City #2 8.36 inches. The wettest 8.45 inches 1920. Por
Philadelphia #3 8.88 inches. The wettest 10.56 2013, #2 is 10.06
in 1938. Three of 4 wettest junes occurred since 2003.
Temperatures for the month of June in our forecast area generally
averaged slightly above normal but nothing of significance.