Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
1236 PM EDT Tuesday Jun 2 2015
a cold front was located across southern Maryland and Virginia
early this morning. The boundary will continue to sink southward.
High pressure will try to push into our region from the north and
northeast for tonight through Wednesday night. The center of the
high is forecast to pass off the New England coast on Thursday. A
cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Friday
and it should move across our region early on Saturday. Another
area of high pressure is anticipated to pass to our north and
northeast on Sunday. A warm front may arrive from the west on
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
A cold front will drift south across the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia today. Along and
behind the front low clouds and scattered showers will persist
with the highest coverage in the Poconos early this afternoon.
Short term mesoscale models such as the hrrr and rap show the rain
showers filling in further south this afternoon as well, so probability of precipitation
and quantitative precipitation forecast were increased a touch to account for this. Highest quantitative precipitation forecast
up to 1/3 inch is possible from Berks County into northwest New Jersey.
Thick clouds and northeast flow will keep temperatures from rising
much today. Lav guidance has a good handle of temperatures this
afternoon, not rising much.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Wednesday/...
with the exception of some precipitation across the southern areas, most
locations could have a mainly dry forecast tonight. However it will
remain dreary and cool. With the moisture around there will be
some fog and drizzle around as well. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts should be light.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
a middle level low is forecast to be located near the border between
Tennessee and North Carolina on Wednesday morning. It is expected
to meander over that area on Wednesday and Wednesday night before
drifting eastward across North Carolina on Thursday and Friday.
The low is anticipated to become an open wave during that period
of time. A middle level short wave is forecast to drop over the
Carolinas and vicinity from the northwest in the Friday into
Saturday time frame. A robust middle level trough is expected to move
across the Great Lakes and the northeastern states from Sunday
The middle level pattern suggests a period of unsettled weather from
Wednesday through Monday with at least a chance of showers in part
of our region each day. The greatest instability and best chance
for thunderstorms appears to be on Monday in association with a
Surface high pressure is forecast to pass to our north and
northeast on Wednesday and Wednesday night with a return flow of
moisture anticipated for Thursday. A cold front is expected to
approach from the northwest on Friday and it should pass through
our region early on Saturday. Another surface high is expected to
pass to our north and northeast over the weekend with a warm front
approaching from the west for Monday.
Temperatures should be a bit below normal on Wednesday and
Thursday and near normal from Friday through Monday.
Aviation /18z Tuesday through Sunday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Continued IFR ceilings through the taf period with some potential
for an improvement to MVFR ceilings Wednesday afternoon. IFR
ceilings may be variable possibly reaching 1,000 feet or so at
times, the best chance for this would be early this evening.
Scattered showers may reduce visibilities to between 3 and 5
miles as well with the highest coverage between ridge and ttn
Wednesday night...mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday through Friday night...occasional MVFR conditions in
showers. Also, late night and early morning light fog and haze are
Saturday...mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
the Small Craft Advisory flag has been extended through the remainder of today and
tonight as seas remain elevated and wind is expected to remain
above criteria as well. There could be a drop below Small Craft Advisory during the
morning today, but conds should increase again later today into
Wednesday...a Small Craft Advisory is in effect due to the
expectation of a northeast wind gusting around 25 knots.
Wednesday night and Thursday morning...Small Craft Advisory
conditions may linger with a continued northeast wind gusting
around 25 knots.
Thursday afternoon through Saturday...no marine headlines are
due to the continued northeast wind and today's full moon, we
will carry a moderate risk of rip currents.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for anz430-431-