Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
220 am EDT Tuesday Jun 18 2013
Synopsis...
a low pressure system will continue to move northeast through the
Saint Lawrence valley tonight. Its associated cold front should
arrive Tuesday or Tuesday night with a weak low pressure system
forming along it. A high pressure system will then build into the
northeast the latter half of the work week before shifting
offshore on Saturday. A warm front is forecast to move through the
forecast area on Sunday and northward into New England on Monday.
&&
Near term /through today/...
still trying to figure out a best forecast scenario:
As it stands at 2 am...looks like no convection through about
15z then models start spewing at various times of the day.
We do know precipitable water will increase from where it was ydy ..to about 1.6
or 1.7 inches and that wind fields aloft should decrease through
the day so other than a wet microburst...severe wind doesnt seem to
be a big problem. There might be a strong mesocyclone for a short
time late today along the boundary that seems to evolve rapidly
southward through southern New Jersey late today.
The temperatures dews and winds are 50 50 blended NAM/GFS 00z/18 MOS
guidance and added a degree for later than modeled convection. Maximum
temperatures should be in the 17-19z time frame.
Considerable cloudiness today...especially this afternoon.
Its difficult for ME to be sure where convection will be most
widespread but the wording for possible heavy showers will be in
the forecast.
The possibility exists for ffw del valley southeastward near the surface low/cold front passage
as it evolves southward this afternoon.
&&
Short term /tonight/...
convection may still be quite active through the 10 PM to midnight
time frame then gradually die out as northerly flow develops in the
wake of the southward cold front passage and asstd surface low moving seaward from east
of the New Jersey/Delaware coasts.
Stratus is likely for at least the S portion of the area as modeled in
1000-950 mb relative humidity fields... as well as sref probs of ceilings below 1000
and 3000 feet. The latter ceilings may be arriving on NE flow from Li
tonight. Timing arrival and ceiling heat uncertain.
Temperatures/dews/winds are 50 50 blended 00z/18 NAM/GFS MOS guidance.
&&
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure pushes into the region for the Thursday through
Saturday time-frame, with temperatures running slightly below
normal and dry conditions.
Warm frontal boundary approach on Sunday brings next potential
precipitation and both temperatures and probability of precipitation on Sunday and Monday
followed wpc guidance closely.
&&
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Through 12z...broken cirrus ceilings. Patchy MVFR visibility in fog.
After 12z...VFR ceilings with clusters of IFR slow moving showers and
thunderstorms with their torrential rains and possibly north-northwest g 30-35 knots
this afternoon. Timing and intensity of convection at any taf location
is uncertain and therefore thunder is not defined in the 06z tafs.
Light wind becoming south-southwest for a time midday at 10-15 knots then shifting
north late.
Tonight...leftover IFR conds in heavy showers and thunderstorms becoming
IFR conds in St/fog late. North wind becoming north-northeast 10-15 knots late.
Outlook...
Wednesday...pockets of MVFR conditions in the morning, otherwise
VFR.
Wednesday night through Saturday...VFR.
&&
Marine...
sub-advisory conditions look to persist across our waters through
most of Tuesday night but Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop vicinity Sandy Hook
late this Tuesday night.
Outlook...
right now we are not looking at Small Craft Advisory conditions to occur through
Saturday. However, the northeast fetch late Wednesday into
Wednesday night and early Thursday will bring seas up to the 4
foot range, so this will continue to be monitored closely. Winds
and seas subside as we move into Friday and Saturday.
&&
Phi watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New Jersey...none.
Delaware...none.
Maryland...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...szatkowski
near term...drag 220
short term...drag 220
long term...szatkowski
aviation...drag/szatkowski 220
marine...drag/szatkowski 220
