Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
919 PM EDT Monday Jun 17 2013
Synopsis...
a low pressure system will continue to move northeast through the
Saint Lawrence valley tonight. Its associated cold front should
arrive Tuesday or Tuesday night with a weak low pressure system
forming along it. A high pressure system will then build into the
northeast the latter half of the work week before shifting
offshore on Saturday. A warm front is forecast to move through the
forecast area on Sunday and northward into New England on Monday.
&&
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
more short term adjustments to weather/probability of precipitation across the Delaware-Maryland-Virginia and southern
New Jersey with a continuation of showers/scattered thunderstorms across the region.
Precipitation will gradually end overnight. Patchy fog is expected.
Temperatures were not changed much from earlier forecast.
&&
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag across the region
tomorrow and again touch off showers and possibly thunderstorms by
the late morning/early afternoon time-frame. A weak surface wave will
move along the front which helps with larger scale lift in a
marginally unstable atmosphere...more cloud cover tomorrow than
today. Still not quite sure how much surface based instability can
be realized tomorrow.
The flow aloft, which once was strong, continues to weaken on
Tuesday so any storms that do initiate along the frontal boundary
allowing for a much slower storm motion. Precipitable waters will still be fairly
high so any shower/thunderstorm could produce a heavy downpour in a
short time period.
Temperatures tomorrow should be a couple of degrees cooler than
today with highs in the low to mid-80s.
&&
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
time period begins with cold frontal boundary working to push
through the area. Cold frontal movement still looks slower than
it did several days ago, so retained the chance probability of precipitation for
both Tuesday night and Wed, with the higher probability of precipitation on Wednesday closer
to the coast. Looked at blend of mav/met on Tuesday night/Wednesday
for temperatures.
High pressure pushes into the region for the Thursday through
Saturday time-frame, with temperatures running slightly below
normal and dry conditions.
Warm frontal boundary approach on Sunday brings next potential
precipitation and both temperatures and probability of precipitation on Sunday and Monday
followed wpc guidance closely.
&&
Aviation /01z Tuesday through Saturday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Tonight...the convection across southern New Jersey will end overnight. Mostly
VFR into the evening...then areas of fog may develop with lower
visibilities expected. Winds will become light variable or calm
overnight.
Tuesday...MVFR possibly early in the morning with fog across a
majority of our terminals, then VFR. The light variable/calm winds
will begin to pick up by late morning and be more southeasterly as a
low pressure system makes its way along the frontal boundary across
our area. This will provide another chance at showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR restrictions.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...MVFR or lower at times with showers and
thunderstorms. There could be some MVFR/IFR late due to some fog.
Wednesday...pockets of MVFR conditions in the morning, otherwise
VFR.
Wednesday night through Saturday...VFR.
&&
Marine...
sub-advisory conditions look to persist across our waters tonight
and tomorrow. Weak cold front will near from the northwest tonight
and tomorrow while a surface low pressure rides along the frontal
boundary. This is not expected to raise winds or seas significantly
but will produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. Winds will
slowly back towards the east-southeast tonight ahead of the front.
Outlook...
right now we are not looking at Small Craft Advisory conditions to occur through
Saturday. However, the northeast fetch late Wednesday into
Wednesday night and early Thursday will bring seas up to the 4
foot range, so this will continue to be monitored closely. Winds
and seas subside as we move into Friday and Saturday.
&&
Phi watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New Jersey...none.
Delaware...none.
Maryland...none.
Marine...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...szatkowski
near term...O'Hara
short term...Heavener
long term...szatkowski
aviation...szatkowski/Heavener/O'Hara
marine...szatkowski/Heavener
