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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BUILD EAST...REACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY BEFORE
SLOWING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG IT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT . DIMINISHING WINDS IN PROGRESS
AS DECOUPLING OCCURS WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING. NO CHANGE IN THE MILD
MINS FOR EARLY FRIDAY...ABOUT 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

GUSTINESS AT 9 PM WAS STILL OCCURRING ON SOME OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW-FRIDAY IS LOOKING PROMISING THAT WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE MOSTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. SOME CIRRUS...ESPECIALLY
LATE DAY. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN NEARLY ALL LEVELS.

WEST WIND MAYBE GUSTING 15-20 MPH AT TIMES...DEFINITELY LESS THAN THE
GUSTS OF THIS PAST CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY FORECAST STILL TO BE ABOUT 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL 
ROCKIES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS 
RIDGE MAINTAINS A SW FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS FLOW 
THEN GRADUALLY BECOMES WESTERLY MON, THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE WED OR 
EARLY THU AS A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY PUSHES SOUTH.  IN TERMS 
OF TEMPERATURES, THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUN, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MON AND 
TUE, THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMINDER OF THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD. 

MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE VA/NC 
COAST FRI NIGHT WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SAT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO 
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN 
OR RAIN SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY, CONTINUING 
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE FRONT SAGS JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LOW 
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG IT, CONTINUING THE PRECIPITATION THREAT 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO TUE. COLDER AIR ON THE
BACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CHANGE SOME OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. THEN MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
IN FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ON THU.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUSTS GENERALLY
BELOW 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR FEW OR CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUSTS INCREASING
TO BETWEEN 15-20 KT EARLY FRIDAY AFTN.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS, VFR CIGS 
ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT 
TIMES AS WAVES OF PRECIPITATION MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE 
AREA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD BE SNOW.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERALLY A
WEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

LOWEST CONFIDENCE IS ON MONDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS 
PREDICTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE AREA WATERS ON THE MENTIONED FRONT.  
ITS POSSIBLE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IF 
THIS LOW INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE MONTH OF DECEMBER THROUGH 24 DAYS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA WAS
AVERAGING MORE THAN 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
FOR PHILADELPHIA AVG 3 TO 3.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DECEMBER
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT PHILADELPHIA IS PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 41.0F.
THE 1981-2010 NORMAL IS 37.5 DEGREES. 

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM... DRAG 941
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...DRAG/MIKETTA
MARINE...DRAG/MIKETTA
CLIMATE...941




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