Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
846 PM EDT Monday Aug 31 2015
high pressure will build across the region through midweek. A weak
backdoor cold front will push southward into our region Thursday
into Friday. High pressure sets up across the northeastern United
States through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
partly cloudy skies will prevail through the overnight hours,
with some patchy fog toward morning in mainly rural areas.
Overnight lows are a blend of mav/met MOS and mosguide.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
high pressure at the surface, and ridging aloft continue to build to
our west through the day Tuesday. A thermal trough may redevelop
during the day as temperatures heat up across the area. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday as we do not expect any short
wave/vorticity impulses to affect the area to help create any
convection. With an increase in thicknesses, and slight increase in
925/850 mb temperatures, with more sunshine and less cloud cover
expected, Tuesday should be a few degrees warmer than Monday. Low
90s are expected across most of the area, with middle/upper 80s across
the coast and higher elevation. However, with low enough dewpoints,
we are not anticipating heat indices to reach critical levels for an
Daytime highs are a blend of mav/met MOS, mosguide, and mixed 925 mb
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
hot days on the horizon as we go through the week. Temperatures will
rise into the 90s and with light winds and dewpoints back into the
60s, it will feel humid and uncomfortable through at least Thursday.
Surface high pressure will remain the big factor in our weather
through Thursday. The middle level ridge slides overhead and then
starts to flatten out by Thursday. A middle level shortwave is prognosticated
to rotate towards the area on Wednesday but the ridge breaks down
before it arrives and it looks to dig southeastward just to the
southwest of our area. However, a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms may spark over the western zones as a result. Patchy
fog is possible overnight, mainly north and west of the I-95
A weak cold front, looks like more of a backdoor front, will push
southward across our area Thursday. There should be enough lift and
moisture in place to spark some showers or thunderstorms. In
reality, the front is more cool than cold. It will help to lower
those pesky dewpoints to a more comfortable range and lower the high
temperatures back into the upper 70s through middle/upper 80s through
High pressure will build across the northeastern United States and
this will be the focus for our weather over the weekend and into the
new week. Overall, the period looks to be mostly dry and the rain
chances will be hit or miss for most of our area.
Aviation /01z Tuesday through Saturday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy, and surrounding areas.
VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Tuesday. Winds
will remain mostly from the southwest tonight, with some areas
becoming light and variable/calm. Winds should become more north-
northwest by daybreak Tuesday as a boundary pushes through the
Tuesday night through Wednesday...mainly VFR conditions expected.
Some morning fog/stratus possible with MVFR conditions. Showers and
thunderstorms possible during the afternoon, near kabe and krdg.
Thursday through Friday...showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the terminals, with periods of sub-VFR conditions. Fog
development is also possible as the front drops southward through
Saturday...mainly VFR conditions expected.
sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue across the coastal
waters tonight through Tuesday. There could be some gusts around 20
knots this evening, but winds are expected to remain below advisory
Tuesday through Thursday...below advisory conditions expected. Seas
around 2 to 3 feet with southerly winds around 10 to 15 knots, some
gusts near 20 knots.
Friday and Saturday...easterly winds will help to increase seas and
they could approach 5 feet by Friday afternoon. Subsiding seas on
Saturday should bring US back to sub-advisory conditions on the area
waters. Winds will be 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots.
3 feet seas with a period of around 6 second...and a southwest wind in
the 10 knots range...is expected to result in a low risk for rip
currents on Tuesday for both the New Jersey and Delaware coasts.