Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
1108 PM EDT Thursday Aug 28 2014
high pressure will continue to build overhead through the end of
the work week before sliding offshore on Saturday. A warm front
will lift northward through our area on Saturday. An approaching
cold front on Monday will cross the region on Tuesday with high
pressure returning by Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
fair weather high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes is slowly
building into the northeast USA.
Some decoupling occurring this evening and overall have cooled
temperatures slightly overnight.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
tranquil weather is in store for Friday with the high overhead for
most of the day. The center of the high will start to shift
eastward toward the New England coast, causing the winds, albeit
light, to veer from northerly to Ely late in the afternoon. The cool
Canadian air mass will continue to influence the region. Even with
strong heating occurring under sunny skies, highs only around 80f
will be commonplace.
Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
we start off the long term period rather tranquil with surface
ridging sliding off the East Coast. Warm front passage Saturday
should be a dry one with little in the way of forcing and drier
air mass in place. Behind the front moister air mass advection
commences under a strengthening southwesterly flow through early
next week as upper level ridging is anchored to our southeast.
A slow moving cold front, attached to a Great Lakes low pressure
system, inches closer to the region over the later half of the
weekend spilling into next week. The flow aloft becomes more
zonal, ultimately slowing the front down even further but
increasing the chances for convection as multiple shortwaves move
through the region within the moist air mass. Finally, the cold
front looks to push through by Tuesday evening with dry air
filtering in behind the departing front.
Temperatures this period start out below normal and begin to
climb towards normal this weekend. Most likely we will see an
above average start to the month of September before returning
towards normal by the end of the period.
Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
VFR through Friday. Light northwest to north winds tonight becoming
northeast Friday morning and east or southeast Friday afternoon.
Saturday...mostly VFR. Localized fog early Saturday morning
possible at outlying terminals. High confidence.
Sunday...VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms north and west
of phl. MDT confidence.
Monday - Tuesday...VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible everywhere. Low to MDT confidence on precipitation coverage.
the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled based on the downward
wave height trend this evening. It appears as though wave heights
had fallen to 3 to 4 feet on our ocean waters by 1100 PM.
Winds and seas should continue to subside slowly overnight and on
Saturday - Tuesday...sub-sca conditions expected across our
waters with high pressure moving offshore on Saturday. Cold front
will approach Monday and cross Tuesday. Winds will back towards
the southwest on Sunday and remain that way through Tuesday. Seas
will increase but remain below Small Craft Advisory at this time.
we have a forecast a moderate risk for the formation of powerful
and dangerous rip currents on Friday...despite the lowering of the
swells. Part of this is related to residual long period swell
energy still impacting our Atlantic coasts.
For ultimate safety...please swim only in the presence of the
lifeguards. All 4 rip current related fatalities this year in New Jersey
were at unguarded beaches! Family/friends you have beside you may
not necessarily be good swimmers and probably dont realize how
difficult it is to Rescue another human being in the ocean!! swim
at guarded beaches where the lifeguards are trained to watch for