Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
416 am EDT Sat Oct 10 2015
high pressure will build across the area through the weekend, before
moving offshore Monday. A cold front is forecast to cross the region
Tuesday, briefly followed by high pressure on Wednesday. Another
cold front may move through the area late in the week.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
high pressure will build over the area today. With a northwesterly
wind across the region, we will see the moisture get whittled away
and we should have a crispy fall day across the region. Winds will
gradually start to drop off through the day as the gradient relaxes.
Cooler air filters in on the northwest flow and temperatures will be
much cooler than they were on Friday. Highs will top out in the low
to middle 60s, with some 50s across the higher terrain.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/...
the high crests over our area tonight and we will have fairly
tranquil conditions. Skies will remain mostly clear and winds will
be light. We should radiate pretty well and expect temperatures to
range from the upper 30s across the northern most areas to the low
to middle 40s elsewhere. Areas along the coast will remain warmer, in
the upper 40s to around 50.
The main concern for tonight will be just how cold it will get
across our northern areas and frost formation potential. It looks
like we might see some frost form in the colder spots but it looks
to be patchy so we have included the mention of patchy frost in the
Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
a relatively quiet start to the long term, with surface high
pressure stretching across the middle Atlantic region from Sunday into
Monday. Both days will feature some sunshine, but temperatures will
gradually modify from daytime highs mostly in the 60s Sunday to
daytime highs into the low 70s Monday as a return flow develops
around the exiting surface high pressure. In addition to southerly
winds and dewpoints rising back into the 50s Monday, there will also
be more in the way of some middle/high level clouds streaming into the
Into Tuesday, a surface cold front and middle-level trough will be
approaching the region from the west. Slight chance to low chance
probability of precipitation for showers are carried in the late Monday night through Tuesday
period associated with these features, but quantitative precipitation forecast looks to be limited
at this time as the better forcing with this system looks to pass by
to our north and overall moisture appears limited. Once the surface
cold front passes by to our east, Wednesday will feature brief
surface high pressure building back over the region, with a longwave
trough still remaining overhead. Winds will shift to more of a
westerly direction into Wednesday following the frontal passage,
with daytime temperatures maxing out in the 60s.
For the latter part of the extended through Thursday and Friday, we
mainly went with a wpc/continuity blend for temperatures/winds/pops as
there are notable model differences between the GFS, ECMWF, and
others. While there looks to be another frontal passage occurring in
this timeframe, there is much model uncertainty regarding strength,
timing, and track. Daytime temperatures look to continue to run in
the 60s for late week, with overnight lows mostly in the 40s for the
Aviation /08z Saturday through Wednesday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy, and surrounding areas.
VFR conditions expected to continue through the taf period.
Northwest winds around 10 to 12 knots early this morning, with some
gusts up to 20 knots, will start to subside between 13-15z, becoming
more northerly and then northeast through the day. Winds will become
light and variable later this afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions with light winds.
Monday night through Tuesday...some sub-VFR in passing shwrs,
otherwise VFR conditions.
Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected.
the Small Craft Advisory remains for the Delaware Bay and coastal
waters through noon.
High pressure moves into the region today and crests over the area
tonight. Northwest winds this morning will become more northerly,
turning to the northeast by late morning. Gusts will gradually taper
off and we should fall below 25 knots by late morning.
Seas have fallen below 5 feet overnight and are expected to remain
around 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday and Monday...sub-advisory conditions are expected.
Tuesday through Wednesday...sub-sca conditions look to continue at
this time, but some wind gusts around 20 knots plus may occur,
especially into Tuesday night following a cold front passage.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for anz431-450>455.