Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
1104 am EDT sun may 24 2015
surface high pressure centered off the middle-Atlantic coast will
result in southwesterly flow over the region...along with
increasing heat and humidity through the middle of next week. A
weak frontal boundary is forecast to cross the area on Wednesday
or Thursday bringing some chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Another frontal system may affect the area by next weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
no changes to the forecast this morning. High pressure remains
just of the middle-Atlantic coast, with southwest flow across the
area and ridging aloft building to our west. This will allow
temperatures to warm into the middle/upper 70s across the area, with
many areas reaching around 80 degrees. An increase in cirrus is
expected through the day with some patchy cumulus build up. With
limited moisture, a rain-free forecast remains.
Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Monday/...
airmass modification continues tonight with the high pressure
slipping a bit farther to our southeast. This allows the surface
flow to back a bit more towards the south- southeast ahead of an
approaching warm front stretched across the middle-west into the
Central Plains. There should still be ample subsidence in place to
allow for a dry overnight time period and while the best
forcing/lift still remains well west of the region. More middle and
higher level cloud cover is expected which will help to keep
temperatures on the warmer side tonight. Again a simple blend of
the met/mavmos looked good.
Long term /Monday through Saturday/...
by the beginning of the long term on Monday an upper level ridge
will have become established over the eastern US...along with
surface high pressure centered off the East Coast. This will
result in increasing heat and humidity across the region with low
level flow coming north from the southeast US and adjacent
Atlantic Ocean. The warmest day looks to be on Wednesday with 850
hpa temperatures reaching around 16-17 degree c. There is a chance that some
areas will see the first 90 degree f reading of the season...although
the various MOS guidance is keeping maximum temperatures in the middle to upper
80s. By Thursday the upper ridge has become somewhat suppressed
and increased cloudiness may hold temperatures down a bit...but dewpoints
should remain in the 60s.
The ridge axis aloft will also tend to divert weather systems
coming out of the plains northward into the Great Lakes and Canada. The forecast
has no precipitation for Monday and just a slight chance far north/west on Tuesday. The
GFS and European model (ecmwf) suggest a weak trough approaching the forecast area on Wednesday
and perhaps lingering into Thursday. We have maintained a chance for
mainly afternoon/evening showers and T-storms on those days with the
highest probability of precipitation north/west of phl. Some afternoon instability is forecast on both days.
For now we have only a slight chance for showers on Friday although
confidence in this sitn to deviate from climatology is not very strong.
Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/...
today - tonight...VFR. Winds start off light and increase upwards
of 10-12 knots out of the south- southwest by this afternoon. A
few gusts close to 20 knots may occur across our eastern terminals
with a slightly stronger wind field expected. Winds decrease
tonight but back more towards the south-southeast ahead of an
approaching warm front.
Monday through Tuesday night...VFR conditions expected. South to
southwest winds around 10 knots. Some gusts up to 20 knots during
Wednesday through Thursday...mainly VFR conditions expected except
for reduced ceilings/visibilities in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
South to southwest winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
during the afternoon each day.
today - tonight...sub-sca conditions expected today though an
increase in winds and seas is expected as stronger southerly flow
commences by this afternoon. Gradient winds top off close to 20
knots across the waters...mostly the northern waters...but with
the lack of mixing due to the unseasonably colder waters and
upwelling along the coast, gusts should be kept to a minimum.
Monday through Thursday...marginal small craft conditions may
develop at times during this period due to persistent SW winds
over the coast waters...especially off the New Jersey shore.
potential heat wave next week. This plus water temperatures continuing
above normal is not good for safety. Once it turns hot and beaches
are unguarded, swimmers may take chances at unguarded locations.
Be smart about any swimming early this season.
Rip current awareness week for Montana Holly is June 7-13 with psas
via public information statements, social media, National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather
radio and any media interviews desired (contact office).
For rip currents: despite anticipated projections of low or
moderate risk through the Memorial Day weekend, early season
fatalities occur when swimming at unguarded times/locations.
Weaker swimmers or swimming in areas where rip currents are
stronger (jetties) can quickly become life threatening. When
trained lifeguards are not nearby, timely Rescue is much less
likely. Lets get through the month of may with all swimmers safe!
Please broadcast this message: for ultimate safety, always swim
in the presence of life guards! Thank you!