Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly New Jersey
1126 PM EST Tuesday Nov 24 2015
high pressure will strengthen as it builds over the northeastern
United States through Wednesday, cresting to the south of
Newfoundland late Thursday or Friday. A cold front is expected to
arrive from the northwest on Saturday with high pressure following
for Sunday. Low pressure will build across the midwestern United
States bringing increasing moisture to the region early next week.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
1230 am estf: updated in this afd around 1115 PM. No sig changes
to the overall forecast through Wednesday night. The 1230 am
forecast will basically have incorporated all the 00z/25 NCEP MOS
guidance but not the 00z/25 European model (ecmwf) which wont arrive here until,
about 110 am.
Overnight-early this morning: frosty! Remaining SC in NE PA and
nnj drying out-clearing and otherwise clear the remainder of the area.
This SC deck was more accurately depicted in the 06z/24 GFS than
the 00z/24 GFS. Tonights 00z/25 NAM does not seem to have a good
idea of the low level relative humidity fields and am not going to equally blend
this 00z/25 run of the NAM in the forecast mix. Calm or developing
light north wind. Excellent radiative Countryside cooling.
Wednesday...sunny (few cirrus and also a few afternoon sc). Temperatures maybe 3
degrees warmer than today (normal) with the wind turning light
east or southeast.
Not critical to the forecast but you may notice..for those with
home barometers..the surface pressure quite high, near 30.75
inches by days end.
Forecast basis: blended 00z/25 GFS/NAM weighted more heavily to
Short term /Wednesday night/...
other than some possible thin cirrus, it will be clear "most" of
the night and frosty again (except not the coasts). There will be
a subtle change...persistent southeast flow in the boundary layer will be
increasing the relative humidity below 3500 feet and actually there should be some
mixing of the wind overnight...possibly to 15 miles per hour along the New Jersey
coast...especially from kacy northward to Raritan Bay. Am also
expecting a deck of SC to develop sometime after 3 am along the
coasts...especially the New Jersey coast. There may also be some patchy
Countryside fog elsewhere...we'lll run some fog tools to check
where the potential is greatest and note that in our 330 am afd.
Forecast basis: blended 00z/25 GFS/NAM weighted more heavily to
Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/...
the high pressure system influencing our weather will shift off to
our north and east with the ridge axis cresting across the region
late Wednesday. The high will continue to influence our weather
through Friday as the south to southeast flow will keep warmer
temperatures across the region. Temperatures for both days will be
well above normal ranging from the 50s across the north to middle 60s
across the south.
With the high shifting eastward, the flow across the region becomes
more easterly and we will see an increase in moisture across the
region. With low level moisture increasing, we may see some patchy
fog develop Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again
Thursday night into Friday morning.
A cold front will cross the region on Saturday. Not a ton of
moisture with the front but there looks to be enough for some
showers to occur. Precipitations looks to be fairly light and if the
GFS has a say, we won't see much precipitation, if any, at all. With
the earlier arrival of the front, the cold air will filter in
through the daytime leading to cooler temperatures as the day GOES on. Maximum
temperatures across the northern areas will likely occur earlier in the day
as a result. Overnight lows will be much colder than the previous
night with lows dropping into the upper 20s to upper 30s across the
High pressure will return briefly for Sunday but it appears to be
fairly weak and quickly is pushed out of the way by low pressure
moving into the midwestern states. However, the models are not in
agreement as to just how strong the high is and also how much
moisture will be ushered in by the low to our west. For now, we will
maintain a cloudy forecast with a chance for some showers for late
Sunday and Monday. With colder air in place, especially during the
nighttime hours, there will be a chance for some snow showers across
portions of the forecast area. A stronger low pressure system may
approach the region around midweek.
Aviation /04z Wednesday through Sunday/...
the following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.
Through 12z Wednesday...VFR clear except for the deck of SC north of
kabe in the Poconos into northwest New Jersey which should be shrinking-clearing.
Calm or mainly light north wind.
After 12z Wednesday...clear or scattered clouds at or above 5000 feet. Light
north-northeast wind becoming east to southeast during the
afternoon. Maximum gust around 13 knots.
Wednesday night...clear or scattered cirrus. Then a deck of broken ceilings
somewhere between 2000-3500 feet should develop along the coasts
sometime after 08z/26. Small chance patchy fog elsewhere in the
Countryside toward 10z. Light southeast wind except gusts to 15
knots possible along the New Jersey coast.
Thursday through Friday...mainly VFR conditions expected. Patchy
fog during the overnight into early morning hours is possible. Low
clouds are possible mainly late Thursday and Friday.
Friday night and Saturday...a cold front will cross the
region Saturday with MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Clearing from
northwest to southeast and return to VFR later in the day.
Sunday...mainly VFR conditions expected. A slight chance for some
showers, mainly across the southern terminals.
no headlines. Good weather for the mariner. Light north to northeast
wind becoming southeast this afternoon with gusts increasing to 15
knots and persisting tonight. A long period swell of 2 feet persists on
the Atlantic waters throughout.
Thursday through Thursday night...sub-advisory conditions are expected.
Friday and Saturday...increasing waves on the ocean may build to
around 5 to 7 feet. North to northwest winds may gust up around
25 knots later on Saturday.
Sunday...winds and waves are expected to fall below Small Craft
Advisory criteria early with a period of sub-advisory conditions
the following locations may experience near record warmth Friday
November 27, presuming there is considerable sunshine from midday-
early afternoon Onward with a south to southwest wind of around 10
miles per hour. Note the 00z/24 European model (ecmwf) and its MOS continues much warmer
Friday than the 00z/24 GFS MOS and we have a forecast that favors
the warmer European model (ecmwf). It does look to be quite a nice day!
Record highs for Friday November 27
kabe 62 -1988 and 1959
krdg 65- 2011
kmpo 60- 2006 and 1984
kacy 69- 1981
November as a whole is projecting to be a top 10 warmest month
for at least portions, if not all of our forecast area.
We will reevaluate any changes with respect to overall rank in
our Wednesday morning afd ~ 430 am, which will be based on climate
data through Tuesday and any adjustments to 24 hour maximum/mins issued
in our 330 am Wednesday forecast package.
near term...drag/iovino/Johnson 1124p
short term...drag/iovino 1124p