Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pendleton or
143 am PST Sat Feb 6 2016

Short through Monday...a cold front that moved across
the forecast area last evening is now moving off to the east. It is
currently located over far eastern areas of the County Warning Area...mainly the
southeast border of the County Warning Area. There may still be some rain and higher
mountain snow showers associated with this front over the northeast
mountains today...mostly due to upslope lifting. Current radar
imagery shows some light rain and higher mountain snow showers over
the northern Blue Mountains and moving east. A northwest flow will
persist tonight through Sunday. Then on Monday the upper ridge will
strengthen and amplify with a continued west to northwest flow over
the County Warning Area. However the atmosphere will be much drier with warmer 850
mb temperatures. Have taken out all precipitation after today.
There will be a slight cooling today and Sunday across the County Warning Area
behind the cold front but then there will be a warming trend...slow
at first beginning Monday. However the County Warning Area is not completely out of
fog season and there is still a chance for low clouds and fog
development over the lower Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys/Blue
Mountain foothills. In areas where fog or low clouds do develop
temperatures will be held down...this the warming trend will mainly
be in the higher elevations. Except dry conditions with light winds
on Monday under the strengthening upper ridge. This pattern will
continue into the extended forecast period. 88

Long term...Monday night through Saturday...a very expansive upper
level ridge will be over the area through at least middle week if not
longer. The European model (ecmwf) model breaks down the ridge around Thursday but
the GFS hangs onto the ridge longer. Through at least Wednesday
expect dry and mild conditions with patchy valley fog. Have backed
off a bit on the probability of precipitation for late in the week into next weekend given
the weakness of the incoming systems and the stoutness of the upper
level ridge. Snow levels will be quite high through middle week which
could lead to significant snow melt in the mountains. Snow levels
will lower to 4-5 thousand feet by next weekend. 78


Aviation...12z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Expect some MVFR/IFR conditions in br at kykm
Sunday morning. There will be extensive middle and high clouds around
today and tonight. Winds will be on the decrease through the day
today and be vrb at 5 knots or less by this evening. 78


Preliminary point temps/pops...
PDT 51 31 50 32 / 0 10 0 0
alw 51 34 48 33 / 10 10 0 0
psc 53 32 51 30 / 0 0 10 0
ykm 49 28 48 30 / 10 10 10 0
hri 53 31 52 31 / 0 10 0 0
eln 44 29 43 27 / 10 10 10 0
rdm 48 26 53 30 / 0 10 10 0
lgd 44 26 45 30 / 10 10 0 0
gcd 42 24 46 27 / 10 10 10 0
dls 53 34 53 34 / 10 10 10 0


PDT watches/warnings/advisories...


For additional weather information, check our web site at...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations