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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Pendleton or
415 am PST Tuesday Mar 3 2015

Updated aviation discussion

Short through Thursday...a deep northerly flow behind
a cold front will prevail today over the Pacific northwest. This
will bring down cold Canadian air into the region. Modified Arctic
air will brush the County Warning Area with the coldest air staying east of the
Rocky Mountains. However in any case it will be a cooler day with
maximum temperature readings only reaching the lower to middle 40s in
the lower elevations and middle 20s to middle 30s in the mountains. This
is some of the coldest air seen since early January. The cold snap
will be short lived however as an upper ridge builds eastward into
the region over the next few days. Temperatures will moderate each
day...but nights will be cold due to strong radiational cooling and
light winds. In any event a warming trend will take place with
maximum readings reaching the middle 50s lower elevations by Thursday
with 40s to near 50 in the mountains. Precipitation is not expected
in the short term period...except possible light snow showers this
morning over the Wallowa Mountains. Winds will be mostly pressure
gradient driven today from the north and then they will become more
terrain dependent starting Wednesday and continuing on Thursday.
Wind speeds will mainly be from 5 to 10 kts...but there could be
local afternoon gusts to 15 kts each day. 88

Long term...Thursday night through Monday night...a middle/upper level
ridge of high pressure will persist over the NE Pacific and the
Pacific northwest through the period for dry conditions. As such
near drought conditions are looking more likely as this very
persistent ridge of high pressure has been a feature of the
middle/upper level pressure pattern during this winter season across
the NE Pacific and the region. Polan


Aviation...12z tafs...VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. There will be some broken-overcast clouds around 3000-4000 feet above ground level
mainly impacting krdm and kbdn this morning. There will also be some
scattered stratus clouds around 2000-2500 feet above ground level at kpdt and kalw this
morning due to orographic lift along the north facing slopes of the
foothills of the Blue Mountains. Otherwise, skies are expected to
clear by around midday at all taf sites. Winds will be less than 10
kts and will be pressure gradient driven today. Then pressure
gradients weaken around dusk allowing for drainage winds of around
5-8 kts to occur through overnight. Polan


Preliminary point temps/pops...
PDT 40 22 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
alw 39 27 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
psc 46 18 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
ykm 44 21 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
hri 45 18 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
eln 46 19 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
rdm 43 12 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
lgd 38 13 45 24 / 10 0 0 0
gcd 39 15 48 24 / 10 0 0 0
dls 50 24 55 31 / 0 0 0 0


PDT watches/warnings/advisories...


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