Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton or
543 PM PST Wednesday Mar 4 2015
Short term...tonight and Thursday...ridge of high pressure will
remain over the region but will see some increasing high clouds
moving through the region from a system passing to the north. Have
made some minor tweaks to the overnight temperatures. Also adjusted
high temperatures on Thursday upwards slightly based on todays final
highs and expected warming tomorrow.
Previous disc... /issued 229 PM PST Wednesday Mar 4 2015/
Short term...tonight through Saturday...high pressure will dominate
the areas weather with dry conditions into the weekend. A weak
disturbance may brush our far northern zones in Washington with middle
level clouds Thursday night and Friday and high clouds elsewhere.
Otherwise a warming trend is expected and afternoon temperatures are expected to
climb above normal and into the 60s across some locations by this
Long term...Saturday night through Wednesday...a ridge centered
along the Pacific coast will ensure fair and dry weather through at
least Monday. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs in
the middle 50s to middle 60s and lows in the middle 30s to middle 40s with middle
20s to middle 30s in the mountains. Model agreement breaks down at this
point with the European model (ecmwf) continuing to have a ridge over the area Monday
night and Tuesday then has a system coming ashore out of the Pacific
Tuesday night and into our area on Wednesday. The GFS brings a
trough out of the Gulf of Alaska into the area Monday night and
Tuesday with rain mainly in the mountains. The trough remains
through Wednesday, though there are no disturbances moving through
the trough so Tuesday night and Wednesday would be dry for our area.
This trough was not present in the past few earlier GFS runs.
Looking at the individual GFS ensemble members for the latest run
shows some members favoring the trough but about 40% still show
ridging. Have therefore discounted the trough in the GFS for now and
leaned towards the European model (ecmwf) solution. This would give US continued fair
weather through Tuesday and then a slight chance of rain in the
western third of the area Tuesday night. Wednesday will have a
slight chance of rain in the lower elevations and a chance of rain
in the mountains. Temperatures remain in the middle 50s to middle 60s on
Tuesday then fall to the middle 40s to middle 50s on Wednesday.
Aviation...00z tafs...VFR conditions with generally clear skies
aside from few to scattered cirrus are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will remain less than 10 kts. Perry
Preliminary point temps/pops...
PDT 26 58 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
alw 29 58 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
psc 24 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
ykm 24 58 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
hri 23 59 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
eln 24 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
rdm 19 61 23 66 / 0 0 0 0
lgd 23 54 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
gcd 23 54 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
dls 28 61 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
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