Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pendleton or
245 PM PDT Monday Sep 1 2014

Short term...tonight through Thursday...the northwest upper level
flow over the region will shift to a more westerly direction
tonight. This is due to the approach of a system in the Gulf of
Alaska. This flow will remain dry through tonight, thus will see
fair and dry conditions. Low end breezy winds through the Cascade
gaps this evening will gradually decrease through the night,
especially in The Gorge. The Gulf of Alaska system will swing
through British Columbia and northern Washington into western
Montana Tuesday through Wednesday morning. This system will push a
cold front through the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. This
front will be largely dry with only some light rain near the Cascade
crest (mainly in washington) Tuesday and Tuesday night. Also, a few
showers may occur over the northern blues and the higher terrain in
Wallowa County overnight Tuesday night. Winds will increase across
the area behind the front, especially across the Columbia Basin and
through the Cascade gaps. May see some patchy blowing dust in the
basin, but am uncertain to how much and how low visibilities may go.
May just see a gradual build up of dust in the air with only limited
visibility reductions. Thus will hold off on any highlights for now.
The system will continue to move east Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday. This will result in a dry northwest to north flow
developing over the region for a return to lighter winds and dry
conditions. 90

Long term...Thursday night through Monday...the area will remain
dry through much of period as an upper low moves down over northern
California and a ridge of higher pressure pushes into Washington.
The next system will be dropping south through western Canada on
Sunday and Monday. The 12z GFS is stronger and dives the system
south over Washington...while the European model (ecmwf) is about 12 hours slower and
keeps the best energy and moisture to the north, similar to the
previous GFS runs. This system should bring some showers to the
Washington Cascades but we shouldnt see any further south. The main
effects will be another push of cooler air for late Sunday and
Monday and some breezy conditions. Ml


Aviation...00z tafs...VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24
hours under mostly clear skies. Winds will decrease to less than 10
kts overnight and then increase after 18z on Tuesday with most
locations seeing 15 to 20 kts and gusts to 25kt...while kdls will
have 15 to 25 kts and gusts to 30kt. Ml


Preliminary point temps/pops...
PDT 51 81 49 73 / 0 0 10 0
alw 57 82 55 75 / 0 0 10 10
psc 51 83 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
ykm 50 80 46 74 / 0 0 10 0
hri 48 83 51 76 / 0 0 10 0
eln 52 78 50 74 / 0 10 10 0
rdm 39 81 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
lgd 45 80 46 70 / 0 0 10 10
gcd 43 81 41 74 / 0 0 10 0
dls 55 79 54 75 / 0 10 10 0


PDT watches/warnings/advisories...

For additional weather information, check our web site at...



National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations