Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1004 am EDT Tuesday Apr 28 2015
dry and warmer weather is expected today and Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
10am...few changes needed. Minor tweaks to sky and temperatures.
Forecast of a pleasant Spring day is on track.
A dry northerly flow will allow for a brighter day today
with passing high clouds. Temperatures aloft will remain
unseasonably cool...but will modify compared to what was in place
on Monday. With an increase in sunshine and the absence of
monday's cold air...temperatures will warm closer to seasonable
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
weather remains quiet tonight and Wednesday as a weak upper level
ridge slowly moves eastward through the area.
Conditions will quickly deteriorate Thursday as large upper level
system digs into the upper Midwest. Models have been inconsistent
on where and when showers will develop Thursday. Expect many
changes to thursday's forecast.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
model differences and run to run inconsistencies continue to make
the extended a forecast challenge. Majority of the long term will
be dependent on location and eastward movement of large upper
level low. Have continued to lean closer to the European model (ecmwf) which has
shown better run to run consistency.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through the period as ridging transitions
across the region. Winds will remain relatively light and
Outlook.../Tuesday through Saturday/...
the next chance for general restrictions is expected with
Thursday low pressure.