Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
448 am EDT Thursday Jul 30 2015
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
ridges early this morning as a cold front crosses the region.
High pressure will bring lower humidity with seasonable
temperatures later today into Friday.
Near term /through tonight/...
early morning update to adjust for probability of precipitation and quicker movement of
front. Wind shift with front is through Pittsburgh and will
cross ridges around 12z. Much lower dew points into eastern Ohio
and northwest PA at 09z. Band of scattered showers and storms just
ahead of front will exit ridges early this morning with much drier
air working in this afternoon. High pressure will build in
overnight dropping temperatures a bit below average under clear
Short term /Friday through Sunday/...
temperatures will continue near seasonal values with lower
humidity Friday into Saturday.
Northwest flow aloft will bring fast a fast moving shortwave with
a reinforcing weak cold front Saturday with chance probability of precipitation for
showers and storms. Another shortwave will approach later Sunday
but left out probability of precipitation for the daylight hours as timing uncertain.
Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
broad eastern Continental U.S. Upper troughing is prognosticated to persist through
the period. Surface ridging should allow for dry weather and
seasonal temperatures much of the time...though a couple of shortwaves
advancing through the main upper trough could provide rain chances
mainly Monday night...and again toward middle week. Made downward
adjustments to wpc temperatures and probability of precipitation to nudge the ensemble based
forecast solution closer to the latest operational models.
Aviation /09z Thursday through Monday/...
expected through this evening. The exception will be as a cold front
crosses the area overnight...with a few brief MVFR showers. High
pressure is prognosticated to build in behind the front with a few diurnal
Outlook...Friday through Monday...
restrictions are possible with a Saturday cold front