Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
405 am EST Wednesday Nov 25 2015
dry weather and warmer temperatures can be expected through the
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
surface high pressure will drift off the East Coast today and an
upper level ridge will follow on its heels. The return
flow...behind the exiting surface system...will provide warm
advection...allowing for a nice moderation in temperatures today.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
dry conditions and warm temperatures are expected through
at least Friday morning. The next front...whose eastward
progression is slowing in new model runs...will approach the area
late Friday. This will increase shower chances...but timing
remains an issue as models try to come to a consensus on the
boundary's speed. The strongest warm air advection is expected on
Friday...as southwest winds aloft strengthen...providing surface
temperatures that will be well above normal.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
entire long term forecast remains problematic as run to run model
inconsistency and differences in final solutions continue to
hamper the forecast. Timing of the exiting front Saturday and the
timing and track of the next system for Sunday-Tuesday provide a
low confidence forecast. It does appear that there will be
precipitation Sunday through Tuesday...but when and where remains
a huge question mark. Will try to find a Happy medium...but would
expect many changes to this time period as the week progresses.
Aviation /09z Wednesday through Sunday/...
widespread VFR under high pressure through the period. Light winds
overnight will become southeast under 10 kts by late morning.
Outlook...Monday night through Sunday/...
the next chance for restrictions will be later Friday into
Saturday morning with a cold front.