Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
410 am EDT Wednesday Aug 27 2014
warm temperatures will persist through the week. A shower or storm
will be possible today as a weak cold front passes through.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
a weak cold front will slowly cross the area today. Little upper
level support will prevent much precipitation as the front will be
running into an eastern ridge. Atmosphere remains rather stable
through much of the morning...but will destabilize as afternoon
approaches. This will be in response to the higher surface dew
points which will nose in along the boundary later this morning.
With this increase in buoyancy...looks like the best place for
activity would be across the the far south this afternoon. With
daytime heating...convection may quickly develop along a line of
low level forcing and moisture convergence on either side of the
Expect a range of temperatures today from north to south.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday/...
front will be well south of the area by this evening...as an upper
level push finally arrives. Could see some lingering showers/
storms in the far south with the upper level wave...but these will
end quickly. Cooler...drier air will dive southward tonight.
Broad surface high will keep the area dry and comfortable through
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
long term still looking warm...humid and active. At this point...
model discrepancies make it difficult to pinpoint a time period or
location for the highest probability of convection. But at this
point...would think Sunday afternoon with the passage of another
Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
mainly VFR through the taf period. Only exception will be
scattered showers with a weak cold front entering northwest PA later this
morning and moving across the south this afternoon. Coverage for
showers low and only vcsh in terminals. Winds will become
northwest near 10kts with frontal passage and light northerly tonight.
Outlook.../Wednesday night through Sunday/...
advancing Great Lakes low pressure will bring possible shower/thunderstorm rstrns sun.