Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1201 PM EDT Friday Oct 24 2014
mainly dry weather and seasonal temperatures for the weekend. A
warm up into the 70s is expected early next week before a cold
front impacts the region Wednesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
with noon update...have updated sky grids as outside of
southwestern Pennsylvania...most stratus has dissipated. Also
tweaked hourly temperature trend.
Mainly thin cirrus will overspread the region this afternoon as a
weak trough aloft crosses the region. Temperatures a blend of
model MOS. Tonight middle and high clouds will be increasing as a
somewhat stronger shortwave approaches. Temperatures tonight near
Short term /Saturday through Monday/...
shortwave crosses region Saturday with very limited moisture. Only
isolated showers at best. Warm advection ahead of system will push
temperatures into the low and middle 60s. Drier and a bit cooler
temperatures behind system Sunday as high pressure builds east
with breezy northwest winds.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
upper ridging across the eastern Continental U.S. Will begin to shift east Tuesday. This will
allow for the approach and passage of a middle weak...weakening shortwave and it/S
associated surface cold front. Timing specifics and amount of upper spprt remain in
qn so only forecast chance probability of precipitation at this time. High pressure is prognosticated Thursday before genl
upper trofg sets up by lt weak. With operational model differences...
preferred an ensemble/wpc solution throughout the period. Well above average temperatures Erly
in the weak will be replaced by seasonably cool levels after frontal passage.
Aviation /16z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected the remainder of the day as IFR fog
and stratus have finally dissipated at impacted locations. Cloud
coverage will increase overnight ahead of an approaching cold
Outlook.../Saturday through Tuesday/...
a weak cold front will cross the area on Saturday, however, there
is only a 20% chance of any associated ceiling or visible restriction's.