Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
301 am EDT Monday Apr 21 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will dominate today with warm and dry conditions. A
cold front brings showers later tonight and Tuesday.

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Near term /through tonight/...
sunshine with a few high clouds today as high pressure shifts
east. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s. Clouds will
quickly increase tonight as an upper trough approaches with an
associated cold front. Showers will increase after midnight from
west to east as moisture increases ahead of the front. Clouds and
warm advection ahead of the system will keep temperatures in the
50s overnight.

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Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
cold front will be crossing the region Tuesday with showers
especially in the morning diminishing in the afternoon as the
upper trough and front cross the ridges. With early timing of the
front and lack of low level instability continued to keep mention
of thunder out of the forecast.

Northwest flow and cold advection will keep clouds and a stray
shower into Tuesday night. Cool with partial sunshine Wednesday as
surface ridge begins to build across region...clearing skies for
Wednesday night with temperatures well into the 30s...with upper
20s possible in the ridges and the I-80 corridor. As surface
ridge shifts east temperatures will rebound toward seasonal
averages Thursday.

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Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
a cold front will approach and cross the region Friday as an upper
level closed low slowly works east from the Great Lakes into
eastern Canada through the weekend. Scattered showers Friday
followed by cool and unsettled weather for the weekend.

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Aviation /07z Monday through Friday/...
VFR conditions through the forecast period.

Outlook.../Monday through Friday/...
the next chance for restrictions is expected Tuesday with the passage of
a cold front.

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Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.

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