Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
241 PM EDT Wednesday Sep 2 2015
warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the
week with minimal chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/...
a shortwave advancing through SW PA and northern WV should
continue to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through early evening until the wave exits...though normalized
cape indicates ascent should be weak. Subsidence and ridging
behind the wave should allow for dry weather later tonight. Lows
should average 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal levels using the
latest tweaked sref guidance.
Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday/...
as the ridge begins to slide east Thursday morning...another
approaching weak shortwave should return shower and thunderstorm
chances to the region by afternoon as convective thresholds are
reached. The precipitation should gradually end Thursday evening with the
loss of daytime heating.
Slight to low end chances for diurnal convection should continue
Friday for areas from pit south...though building upper ridging
should be enough to allow for dry weather to the north.
Temperatures should continue to average 5 to 10 degrees above
average using GFS MOS and sref guidance.
Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the strong middle/upper ridge is prognosticated to rebuild through the long
term period. Relief from the dry and warm conditions may come
with a middle week cold front.
Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR can be expected with exceptions for isolated to scattered
convection and peri-dawn fog.
Outlook...Thursday night through Monday...
brief restrictions are anticipated with peri-dawn fog.