Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
202 PM EDT sun Apr 20 2014

high pressure will bring dry and warm weather through Monday
before a cold front brings showers Monday night into Tuesday.


Near term /through tonight/...
subsidence will keep conditions dry with plentiful sunshine the
rest of the afternoon as latest satellite imagery shows thin
cirrus moving across the region. Maximum temperatures will be slightly
above normal while radiational cooling overnight will bring low
temperatures to near average.


Short term /Monday through Wednesday night/...
the warmer than normal regime will continue with high pressure through
Monday as weak warm advection continues.

The approach of a shortwave trough from the western Great Lakes
will increase cloud coverage Monday evening and bring the next
chance of showers associated with a surface cold front early
Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Insufficient instability
is diagnosed at this time and therefore have continued to leave
out thunder in the period.

Northwest flow is prognosticated to keep clouds covering much of the
region Wednesday before high pressure begins to clear out clouds
the latter half of the day.

The cold front will lower temperatures to well below average
numbers Tuesday night through the rest of the period.


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
surface ridge will keep dry and seasonal conditions Thursday. A
cold front will approach later Thursday night and cross the region
Friday as upper level closed low slowly works east from the Great
Lakes into eastern Canada next weekend. Scattered showers Friday
followed by cool and unsettled weather for the weekend.


Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR condistions are expected through Monday as high pressure
dominates the area.

Outlook.../Monday through Friday/...
the next chance for restrictions is expected later Monday night and
Tuesday with a cold front.


Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...