Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
801 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
dry weather and warmer temperatures can be expected today and through
most of Friday. Rain chances increase Friday night with the
passage of a cold front.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
cirrus with areas of stratocu will be passing through for much of
the day. Low level warm advection will provide above normal
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
dry conditions and warmer temperatures will continue through
Friday via southwest flow. The eastward progression of the cold
front continues to slow as the eastern ridge refuses to give
ground. Have continued previous ides of pushing probability of precipitation back and
keeping temperatures well above normal.
Cold front will pass through most of the region Friday night...
exiting the far south by Saturday morning. Still some timing
issues between models on back edge of rain shield and how far
south front will move Saturday afternoon. It does appear that
most locations...with the exception of the far south...will see
the rain end Saturday morning.
Colder air will slowly move in later Saturday behind the exiting
Long term /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
the naefs as well as the latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) deterministic
solutions are in good agreement in the progression of deep cutoff
low pressure across the central Continental U.S. And over the Great Lakes by the
middle of next week. The long term forecast thus is of initially
warm temperatures and likely probability of precipitation with a subsequent cooling to near
seasonal averages after passage of that systems occluded and
eventual cold front. The guidance blend was used in construction
of the long term forecast.
Aviation /13z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions are anticipated through Friday as southerly flow increases on
the eastern flank of midwrn low pressure.
Outlook...Thursday night through Monday/...
restrictions are likely with a late Friday/early Saturday cold front.