Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
926 PM EST Monday Feb 8 2016
colder with snow showers through Wednesday as a cold front passes
tonight followed by slow moving low pressure.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
930pm update...little changes to previous update. Temperatures
have been updated with a blend of hires model data.
boundary with cold advection is working across region at 20z with
mixed light rain and snow. As closed low rotates into the eastern
Great Lakes tonight low pressure will quickly form off the
Delaware-Maryland-Virginia coast with an area of diffluent flow aloft developing
mainly across the southern portion of PA into northern WV and the
ridges. This should allow for light to moderate snow tonight into
Tuesday where advisory is in place. Across the north cold
advection and height falls will bring light snow showers but
lesser amounts then expected south. Lows tonight will fall to the
upper 20s by early morning...with little temperature recovery in
cold advection Tuesday.
Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday/...
coastal low will race well offshore Tuesday with closed low
to wobble and then open by Wednesday as shortwaves rotate through
the mean upper trough with increasing cold advection. This will
keep snow showers through the period with best accumulations in
the ridges. Long duration advisories continued across the south
and ridges with a storm total of 6-10 ridges with locally a
foot...with 4 to 6 inches in general elsewhere. Forecast amounts
may be on the high end for the event. Temperatures will fall below
average especially Wednesday.
Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/...
East Coast upper trofg is prognosticated to persist through Sat. Cold temperatures and
periodic snow shower chances are expd as shortwaves rotate through the
trough...and some lake and terrain enhancement occurs. Ridging and
temperature moderation is expd sun before snow chances return Monday with the
next approaching trough. The latest superblend guidance was used for
the long term forecast.
Aviation /03z Tuesday through Saturday/...
condition deterioration to MVFR and occasional IFR is expd as rain and
snow accompany a crossing cold front. MVFR and scattered snow showers
should persist through Tuesday under cold upper trofg...with a period of IFR
snow expd for ports S of pit lt tonight/Tuesday with a more organized
Outlook.../Tuesday night through Saturday/...
restrictions are expd through Sat under cold upper trofg.
Maryland...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for mdz001.
Ohio...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for ohz049-
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for paz021-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for paz074-
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 am EST Wednesday for
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for