Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1015 PM EDT Thursday Sep 3 2015
warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend.
Near term /through Friday/...
another quick update to bring scattered thunderstorms in eastern
Ohio counties with upstream showers pushing consistently to the
With 915pm update...decided to keep isolated thunderstorms in the
forecast through the evening hours areawide considering an
occasional shower/thunderstorm continues to develop even with loss
of convective heating. Thunderstorm complex across Western Lake
Erie is moving onshore in northwestern Ohio...and decided to keep
isolated thunderstorm mention across Ohio after midnight in case
these storms are able to hold together. Previous discussion
Above average warmth and humidity will continue. Expect lows
about 10 degrees above the normals.
Slight to low chance diurnally supported convection is again
expected Friday with weak shortwave support anticipated. No change
to warm airmass though.
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
warmth and humidity will continue to plague the region this
weekend as broad surface high is projected to build westward
across PA under a strengthening upper ridge. Increased subsidence
and warmth aloft will inhibit diurnal convection.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the strong middle/upper ridge is prognosticated to remain through early next
week...with continued warm and muggy conditions. Relief from the
quite warm conditions may come with cold front later Wednesday
into Thursday...as well as an increasing chance for thunderstorms.
Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/...
general VFR conditions will be marred by scattered convection this
evening as a weak disturbance crosses the region. Conditions are
expected to deteriorate to MVFR and IFR as fog develops by dawn.
Outlook...Friday through Tuesday...
brief restrictions are anticipated early morning fog.