Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
206 PM EDT sun may 3 2015
high pressure will bring dry and warm weather through Monday
afternoon. An approaching front brings rain chances by Monday
Near term /through tonight/...
benign weather will persist through the period as large scale
subsidence dominates the region. Southwest flow will allow for
temperatures to reach well above normal. Cumulus will disipate in
the evening and give way to patchy cirrus through part of the
night as flow becomes zonal to yield middle level relative moisture
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
surface high pressure off the coast will keep southwesterly winds
across the region through the period...resulting in continued
warm air advection. Daytime maximum temperatures will be approximately
10 degrees above normal. Probability of precipitation increase late Monday as moisture
advection ramps up out ahead of a boundary slowly transitioning
south across the forecast area.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
warm temperatures will be the weather highlight through the
extended period as ridging remains in place across the eastern
states. Temperatures are expected to range between 10 and 15
degrees above the averages.
The best chance of any precipitation still looks to be Tuesday
into Wednesday morning as a frontal boundary slides over the
upper Ohio region. Forecast soundings show marginal instability...but
improved moisture...middle level thermal troughing...and afternoon
warmth may support some thunderstorm development...with better
chances over higher terrain.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conditions are forecast through Monday with high pressure
continuing to dominate. Eastward shifting surface ridge with
plains troughing will support light south...to southwest surface
Outlook.../Tuesday through Thursday/...
the next chance for general restrictions will come with a Tuesday