Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1250 am EST Thursday Nov 26 2015
dry weather and warmer temperatures can be expected today and through
most of Friday. Rain chances increase Friday night with the
passage of a cold front.
Near term /through today/...
overnight period will again deal with an area of cirrus clouds
moving in from the west with a weak shortwave. Clouds will assist
in keeping overnight temperatures from falling off too much.
Cirrus clouds will be passing through for much of the day. Warm
air advection in the lower levels will provide above normal
Short term /tonight through Saturday/...
dry conditions and warmer temperatures will continue through
Friday via southwest flow. The eastward progression of the cold
front continues to slow as the eastern ridge refuses to give
ground. Have continued previous ides of pushing probability of precipitation back and
keeping temperatures well above normal.
Cold front will pass through most of the region Friday night...
exiting the far south by Saturday morning. Still some timing
issues between models on back edge of rain shield and how far
south front will move Saturday afternoon. It does appear that
most locations...with the exception of the far south...will see
the rain end Saturday morning.
Colder air will slowly move in later Saturday behind the exiting
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
long term forecast remains problematic as run to run model
inconsistency and differences in final solutions continue to
hamper the forecast. Timing of the exiting front Saturday and the
timing and track of the next system for Sunday- Tuesday provide a
low confidence forecast. It does appear that there will be
precipitation Sunday through Tuesday...but when and where remains
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR conditions expected throughout the taf period. South to
southeast winds 5 to 10 kts overnight will increase to 10 to 15
kts by middle morning.
Outlook...Thursday night through Monday/...
the next chance for restrictions will be with a late Friday/early
Saturday cold front.