Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
741 am EDT sun Apr 26 2015
dry and cool weather can be expected with high pressure today.
Near term /through tonight/...
back edge of deeper moisture exiting the southeast ridges this
morning with still a low chance for a shower. Otherwise adjusted
sky based on latest Sat pictures and trends. Still expect some diurnal
cumulus to develop as the day progresses.
Surface high pressure builds in through the afternoon resulting
in dry conditions with sub average temperatures.
As a shortwave moves south into the region later tonight...slight
to chance probability of precipitation were maintained. Model critical thickness shows a
few snow showers may mix in ridges and far north early Monday
Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...
Shortwave moves south during the day Monday with continued low
chance probability of precipitation for showers. Clouds and northerly flow will keep
temperatures below average.
Building surface high pressure under northerly flow aloft will
result in a dry...but cool Tuesday. Clouds will be on the increase
south to north Wednesday as low pressure moves toward the Middle
Temperature throughout the entire period were forecast using a
blend of NAM and GFS MOS...which was 5 to 10 degrees below the
Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
eastern Continental U.S. Upper troughing is expected to persist through the
week...so cool weather will persist. The best chance for
additional precipitation...albeit small...is projected for Thursday given
projections of a southern stream low phasing into that trough.
Little change to previous wpc guidance which was in agreement with
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
general VFR forecast as area of middle deck exits southeast of the
ridges. Scattered- broken cirrus clouds taking place of the lower cloud
deck. With daytime heating...expect scattered- broken VFR cumulus to develop.
Northerly winds will clock at around 8 t0 10 kts with higher gusts
possible in the afternoon.
Outlook.../Sunday through Thursday/...
restrictions are possible Monday with an upper trough.