Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
820 am EDT Friday Sep 4 2015
warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with the remnants of
the convective complex over Ohio will continue to diminish this
morning. Have made adjustments to probability of precipitation and timing based on the
current radar trends and the hrrr...which seems to be handling
Residual outflow from the complex should help to support
additional convection this afternoon. Will maintain the slight to
low chance probability of precipitation that are currently forecast. Temperatures were
forecast at persistence as there is no change expected to the warm
and humid air.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday/...
warmth and humidity will continue to plague the region this
weekend as broad surface high is projected to build westward
across PA under a strengthening upper ridge. Increased subsidence
and warmth aloft should inhibit diurnal convection.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the strong middle/upper ridge is prognosticated to remain through early next
week...with continued warm and muggy conditions. Relief from the
quite warm conditions may come with cold front later Wednesday
into Thursday...as well as an increasing chance for thunderstorms.
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
after morning fog Burns off...expect prevailing VFR conditions for
the remainder of the day. Another round of diurnal convection is
anticipated this afternoon but with little confidence that any one
storm may impact the ports...have opted to leave ts mention out
Outlook...Friday through Tuesday...
general VFR with brief restrictions in early morning fog is
anticipated each day.