Scientific Forecaster Discussion

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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
633 PM EDT Friday Apr 18 2014

Synopsis...
high pressure will bring mostly sunny conditions and seasonal
temperatures through the weekend.

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Near term /through Saturday/...
as of 6pm...cold front is currently laid across western PA into
eastern Ohio. Some thicker middle level clouds are working their way
east...and skies likely will go mostly cloudy at many places.
Radar still shows nothing of significance...and will continue with
the dry forecast. Otherwise...high pressure will quickly slide
eastward over the Great Lakes tonight...helping to clear skies.
Think that there will be enough mixing tonight to keep
temperatures from falling off too much considering the weak nature
of the frontal passage. Generally went with lows in the 30's and
40's across the region...which is close to seasonal averages.

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Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
high pressure will remain in control through the weekend. Expect
seasonal temperatures on Saturday with middle level ridging in place
but a warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday as the winds
shift to the southwest and warm advection ensues. Generally went
with MOS guidance...which has temperatures in the upper 60's and low
70's. Cloud cover will begin to increase late Monday with the
approach of the next system.

The only other thing to mention would be the very low relative
humidity's forecast for Saturday and Sunday. However...even with
relative humidity values in the 20's and drying 10 hour fuel levels...wind speeds are
expected to remain under 10kts at this time.

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Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
minimal change needed in the extended as models show decent
continuity and overall agreement...with a cold front passing
across the region late Monday night through Tuesday. Model
soundings show limited instability so expect showers to be the
main Mode of precipitation...average quantitative precipitation forecast amounts around half an
inch. Drier conditions and a warmer temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday as ridging builds in from the west.

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Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
weak cold front passing across the region early this evening will
result in winds switching west/northwest...but sites will remain
VFR with no precipitation as there is minimal associated moisture and
dynamics. VFR then expected through the weekend.

Outlook.../Saturday night through Wednesday/...
the next chance for restrictions is expected with a Tuesday cold front.

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Pbz watches/warnings/advisories...
Maryland...none.
Ohio...none.
PA...none.
WV...none.

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